Can an earthquake be predicted ? No is the answer, for now
Source: The Sangai Express

Imphal, February 13 2023: Can an earthquake be predicted beforehand? Well, the answer is No...Not yet! .

Science has advanced much over the years and man has reached the moon, but scientists are not yet able to predict an earthquake.

Reacting to a researcher's prediction of a possible major earthquake across Afghanistan, Pakistan and India days after the Turkey-Syria earthquake doing rounds on social media, the Manipur University's Seismological Observatory has rejected the prediction and said 'no scientist has ever been able to predict an earthquake' .

The University's Earth Science's Seismological Observatory's Project Officer Dr Manichandra Sanoujam said, scientists are not yet able to predict any major earthquake so far and the chance of a major earthquake occurring at present is low.

Based on the prediction, people should not feel and act in panic, he added.

It may be noted here that while scientists said earthquakes can't be predicted, a Dutch researcher named Frank Hoogerbeets had reportedly predicted the recent Turkey-Syria earthquake 3 days before on Twitter on February 3 .

He had predicted that an earthquake greater than 7.5 magnitude would strike Turkey and Syria region 'sooner or later'.

His prediction came true on February 6 when four massive tremors shook the region trapping and killing thousands of people.

Frank Hoogerbeets reportedly works for the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), which is a research institute that monitors the geometry of celestial bodies in relation to seismic activity.

After the Turkey-Syria earthquake, Hoogerbeets had then predicted that a major earthquake would jolt Afghanistan, Pakistan and India and its impact would be felt in the Indian Ocean region.

Meanwhile, coincidentally or deliberately, based on Hoogerbeets prediction, another prediction is doing rounds on social media that an earthquake of 7.2 magnitude on the Richter scale would hit Manipur with its epicenter in Imphal East at 12.9 am of February 27.The prediction said the earthquake would shake Manipur for 31 seconds.

Reacting to this, Dr Manichandra said, the seismograph machine at the Seismological Observatory of Manipur University records seismograms (seismic waves) 24 hours a day.

The earth shakes all the time and the seismic waves are recorded by the machine.

It also recorded yesterday's earthquake that hit Assam.

While the earth shakes all the time, there are small earthquakes happening daily.

These seismic activities are recorded every day and the Observatory compares the daily records.

When these minor earthquakes which occur daily continue, the chance of a major earthquake happening is low, he said.

On the other hand, when these minor earthquakes stop or pause, there is a chance that a major earthquake may occur.

While it can't be predicted, following this trend, the probability of a major earthquake happening is very low, Dr Manichandra said.

"While scientists are not able to predict earthquakes, fortunately there are small seismic activities (earthquakes) happening daily and the chance of a major earthquake occurring is low in Manipur in this setting," he added.

As the chance of a major earthquake happening is low at present, people should not feel and act in panic, he added.

Dr Manichandra also said that the seismic activities are being monitored actively at the observatories at Manipur University and Langthabal Khoupum.

The data from the observatories are studied and reported to the people through media whenever an earthquake hits Manipur, he added.

Also, the United States Geological Survey and the National Centre for Seismology (NCS), Ministry of Earth Science are trusted and they provide information and records of major earthquakes and seismic data on their websites daily.

However, Dr Manichandra acknowledged that there are chances of earthquakes happening in Manipur and its border areas with Myanmar.

In the event of an earthquake, people should follow the safety measures provided by the State Disaster Management.

Meanwhile, the Seismological Observatory at Manipur University was established in 1994 and earlier, it had over 10 staff.

Now, the observatory has only two staff, including him and another.

As the North East Frontier Railways is reaching Imphal, a Centre of Excellence Landslide Hazards Mitigation Centre has also been opened at the observatory since January 19 .

The Centre was opened by NEF Railways General Manager Anshul Gupta and MU Vice Chancellor Professor N Lokendra.

The centre provides data and information daily to the railways about the seismic activities in the hills to avoid major hazards, he added.

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