Naga polls spell intriguing omens for Manipur

Pamreiso Shimray *

In the over four decades of statehood in Manipur and Nagaland, these successive two years whip up an intriguing quotient relatively among the people in both the neighbouring states — for a reason that is best explained in political tongue.

Nagaland went to poll on February 23. A year ago, Manipur embraced a whopping victory for Okram Ibobi Singh. There is this, needless to say, a political equation in the elections, this time and last year — the element of Indo-Naga talks.

The 2012 Assembly polls in Manipur was historical. The Naga Peoples Front (NPF) made an entry riding on the pie of the party manifestoes — the Integration of Nagas. A dream that is, however, yet to materialise.

In Nagaland, this time, the political parties jaywalked into the poll mood, after fiddling with 'No election before Naga solution.' However, after a joyride to New Delhi by 60-member delegation under the aegis of Joint Legislature Forum (JLF), that common voice had fallen silent.

And, the election tempo accelerated as if there is no tomorrow.

In those frenzy flights of JLF, Manipur also went into a whirl with several civil and political organisations engaging in premeditated political exercise. That, perhaps, something may pop out from New Delhi for the Nagas.

Like it or not, the 15-year long Indo-Naga talks is again back to square one. In the run up to the polls, the JLF fell apart and the Naga Hoho slumped into quietness in the din of hustings that besets with flexing of muscle and money power between the NPF and the Congress.

An inimical irony still prevails. Neiphiu Rio, this time again, has embarked on a mantra of "Naga political settlement" — to return to power. Will that fetch him a hattrick? Even if it does, the pertinent question still lingers. Does NPF in the seat of power really help the Naga issue?

This is a bare truth though. That, the party has hardly helped gain an inch for the vexed Naga political problem, and it is a fact which is not even debatable anymore.

Nevertheless, the in-equivocal call for the Naga integration by Rio's bandwagon spells differing omens. For the hardliners on Naga integration, it is so soothing; but so bitter for those that vouch for Manipur's territorial integrity. Thus, it can hilariously be put in to say, the NPF are the political baddies for Manipur. There will never be a joyous clap for Rio's victory in the valley and beyond.

For the politically dominant sections in Manipur, the rooster-symbol party is viewed at as a threat to the state dangling on opposing ideologies of the different ethnic groups. The party's victory in Nagaland again, may continue to put this state on the edge of discomfiture.

The scenario is still inimical. Even the return of Congress to power may also not bring much relief. For it also banks on the same agenda to woo the Naga electorates. To certain extent for Ibobi, however, the developing situation may be much easier to handle. He can always draw his dagger and stand ground on the platter of the UPA's common minimum programme.

The Naga political settlement, a card which the different political parties have been repeatedly toying with the Nagas, has no doubt evoked a great charm and a scoring point over the years. Under this circumstance, the Nagas seem to have lost many grounds to further its overall progress. That realisation now appears to be gradually dawning upon the frustrated lots of the hill tribes fighting a guerrilla war for nearly a century against the emerging country.

That tell-tale signs came to the fore in Manipur polls last year. Rio, a man whom many Nagas in this state looked up as a 'political saviour' failed to capture the fascination of the disgruntled Nagas. The party won only four seats winning two in Senapati and a piece each in Chandel and Ukhrul. In Tamenglong, the NPF came a cropper. The home ground of NSCN (IM) supremo Thuingaleng Muivah, that witnessed a clean sweep in 2007 polls by Hebron-anointed candidates, did not even respond with 50 percent mandate.

This time again, how far both the NPF and the Congress have managed to sell the same old mantra will be known soon. In this context, will the Nagas continue to repose faith in Rio? Are the Nagas in Nagaland still enamored by the Naga political issue? A high turnout of 83 percent vote on Friday has been recorded across the hill state. For what cause have they cast their valuable vote? That answer will definitely blow in the wind come February 28.

In spite of reasons that are totally superfluous at times, the outcome of 2013 Nagaland Assembly elections would be closely watched with a bated breath by Manipur.