Can Congress retain power in Manipur election 2017 ?

Aya Shimray *

Polling for Municipal Councils and Nagar Panchayats in Manipur districts in January 11 2016 :: Pix - Shankar Khangembam

The just-concluded elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry have been closely analysed across the country. The two national parties – BJP and Congress failed to make any considerable impacts except in Assam where the saffron party dethroned the 15 years rule of Gogoi-led Congress with a massive win and made some inroads in West Bengal and Kerala. As for the Congress which disappointedly not only lost its biggest turf in north eastern region, Assam but had to be left red-faced in other states. Assam is the biggest state among the seven NE states which sends 14 MPs (out of 24 MPs altogether).

The Congress party has been ruling the state for the last 14 years. At the backdrop of leadership crisis and dissent within the party combined with strong anti-incumbency factors, BJP seized the opportunity to penetrate exponentially. With elections in Manipur expected in the early part of 2017, the verdict in Assam is bound to have a ripple effect in Manipur where BJP is meticulously trying to not only set up its base but topple Ibobi-led Congress party in the state. Moreover, as the trend indicates, the NE states have the tendency of voting into power whichever party is in power at the Centre. There are more worrying factors for Congress if elections in 2017 must be retained.

(1) Leadership Crisis: Like in Assam, the Congress government in Manipur is not without a leadership crisis. Though the demand for change of leadership has died down as of now, voice of dissent within the party continues to be echoed on frequent basis. Recently, a group of disgruntled MLAs regularly air-dashed to Delhi to lodge protest against Ibobi's repeated failures to keep his promise of reshuffling his ministry.

At last, 3 new faces were inducted into the cabinet at the expense of sacking 3 senior most Ministers in order to appease and quell internal dissent for time being. However, it has been reliably learnt that the 3 dropped Ministers were not happy because it has clearly sent out an impression to their workers that at the backdrop of impending election, they were removed for "under-performance". If rumours were taken into confidence, some Congress heavyweights including some sitting MLAs are said to be covertly lobbying for BJP tickets. Ibobi certainly needs a serious introspection and keep its flocks together to defend its bastion.

(2) Modi Wave: Congress leaders in the state have the habit of saying "I don't see any Modi wave". But what if we see on the ground is to be taken cognizance of, whether we attribute to or dismiss it as "Modi wave", it has become clearer day after day that the saffron party is making progressive inroads in the state with even the Congress now beginning to admit as its biggest contender in the coming election.

The stunning performance by BJP in the Municipal & Nagar Panchayat elections held in January this year where it bagged 62 seats out of 278 (Congress won only 108) and the result of the recently held by-election for two constituencies namely – Thangmeiband and Thongju, have provided strong indicators to showcase that the BJP is here for some serious venture. Inspite of round-the-clock do-or-die campaigning by the CM himself alongwith its Ministers and MLAs to retain the two prestigious and strategic seats, it allowed the BJP to open its account in the state. It has been reliably learnt that lately, the BJP party Headquarters has been witnessing a beeline of party ticket seekers even though elections are still months away. With BJP government in power at the Centre and with its massive membership drive underway, the party is understandably staring at the prospect of forming the next government in the state.

(3) Anti-Tribal Policies: Manipur's power rulers over the years have always treaded the cautious path in dealing with sensitive issues because of its multi-ethnic nature and dynamics. During Ibobi's 15 years rule as Chief Minister the need to maintain that fine balance and equation apparently seem to have been overlooked. While Ibobi has been audaciously vocal in drumming up the issue of state territorial integrity (an agenda which Ibobi conveniently brings up whenever his leadership is threatened) little or perhaps nothing has been done to create "emotional" integrity among the various communities which have co-existed for decades.

The huge disparity between the hills and the valley in progress and development has only helped in creating a sense of alienation in the hills. The tribals in the state are peeved at the manner in which they are discriminated in enjoying their job employment privileges entitled by the country's constitution. Various instances of discrimination against the tribals even in its bureaucratic set up have surfaced during Ibobi's rule. Tribal bureaucrats continue to be unfairly discriminated in matters of promotion.

Take for instance, the case of C Peter Ngahanyui, IPS who was the senior-most IPS cadre eligible for promotion to the post of state DGP but was given to a comparatively much younger, junior Meetei officer. Then take the recent case where Ameising Luikham, the senior-most IAS officer from the state who was overlooked for promotion to Chief Secretary and instead replaced by a much junior Meetei IAS officer.

Also, take the case of H Verypam who was again discriminated for the post of Chief Engineer by replacing him with another Meetei officer. Such discriminatory examples which happen on day to day basis stand as a living proof of how the much hyped and oft quoted "Ching-tam Amatani" is reduced to a mere mockery. There are also instances where services of tribal bureaucrats and officers are discriminatorily utilised.

For example, Naga police officers were despatched as team leaders alongwith huge contingents of Commando and IRB forces in combat mode to stop Naga leader Th Muivah from visiting his native village of Somdal, Kuki police officers were sent to Moreh and Churachandpur to confront one of the strongest protests seen in recent past. Again, Mr Phungzathang Tongsing, a veteran tribal Congress leader has been assigned to lead an all-party delegation to Delhi to demand passage of 3 Bills. This policy of pitting tribals against tribals has only angered tribal sentiments. The amalgamation of all these grievances if translated into votes may perhaps only leave more reasons to worry than expect for the grand old party in the tribal areas.

(4) Contentious 3 Bills: The Congress party will in all probability use the issue of Inner Line Permit (ILP) and the three contentious Bills as its main plank to draw support in the coming election. However, the party will apparently bear the brunt in the Hills for its stand on what tribals believe is but only a nefarious plot to grab their ancestral lands and rob of its constitutional rights over land ownership in the hills. Already, 9 (nine) innocent souls have laid down their lives for the cause and houses of sitting Congress MLAs who have given assent to the three contentious Bills have been burnt down at Churachandpur.

The tribal protest gains significance with the coffins of the 9 martyrs still lying at the morgue unclaimed and unburied for months now. The movement against the 3 controversial Bills continue to gain momentum as protest spread from tribal districts of Ccpur, Ukhrul, Chandel, Senapati, Tamenglong to Jantar Mantar. Unless necessary amends are urgently worked out by involving all communities, tribal unrest are not likely to die down that soon. There are every possibility of present tribal protests taking a renewed and prolong agitative course if the President finally gives the assent to the 3 Bills.

(5) Anti-Incumbency factor: The Congress rule in the state which has stretched for the last 15 years may perhaps come under close scrutiny of the people. Cases of corruption are on ever-rising trend with Govt jobs and opportunities only becoming the exclusive reserve of the rich and powerful. Except for some developmental works which have only provided opportunities for contractors and work agencies to pocket the fund meant for public welfare and the pathetic work quality everywhere, the Congress Govt will have few reasons to talk tall about its development claims over this 15 years long Congress rule.

Can the BJP topple Congress?

If the recent by-elections results are of any indication, and if the party does well in the up-coming Imphal Municipal election, it is in no uncertain terms up for some serious challenge to the grand old party. The formula for its victory in 2017 is simple – do well in the valley. If it is able to get anything between 20-25 seats in the valley (out of 40 seats), it is not going to be tight robe walk to the power corridor because the remaining 20 seats which are in the tribal Hill districts are up for grabs.

And the chances are that the BJP may perhaps be the biggest gainer in the tribal areas. Here's the logic – out of the 20 seats in the Hills, 12 seats are in Naga-dominated districts where the Naga Peoples Front (NPF), an ally of BJP has a strong presence. There is every possibility that the two parties would ally and take on Congress in these seats. The prospect of Congress making its impact in Naga areas appear to be challenging with the all powerful United Naga Council (UNC) boycotting all sitting Naga Congress MLAs for supporting what is considered as "anti" tribal Bills.

A constituent unit of UNC have even gone to the extent of ex-communicating two MLAs from its community which also goes to mean they would be barred from campaigning in the district. In the remaining 8 seats which fall in the Kuki dominated areas which is the epicentre of protest movement against the 3 Bills, the Congress faces an uphill task in restoring back the faith and trust the voters have reposed to the party over all these years. This segment which has been a traditional Congress vote bank for the last many years might see different power players this time – either a non-Congress party(s) or Independents or BJP. The BJP will likely not waste any opportunity to cobble up alliance with any non-Congress parties in this area. So the summary reads – if BJP can bag 20+ seats in the valley, the party alongwith its alliance partner NPF with support from some non-Congress parties and Independents have the chance of staking claim for next Govt formation. The question remains – can the Congress retain its power in 2017?