It is said that the ladder of success is always crowded at the bottom but vacant at the top. But in politics, where there is democratic form of Government, and more where there is multi-party system and again where there is a coalition form of Government, the ladder to reach the top is always crowded at the bottom as well as at the top.

The life of the 8th Legislative Assembly saw the SPF Government begin with the swearing in ceremony of Shri O Ibobi Singh as leader of the Congress led Govt on the 7th March 2002. Since then five summers along with five winters (including this winter) have passed.

Its hour comes to an end at last and with this the momentum is set for the Assembly Election for the 9th Legislative Assembly. Leaders of many political parties with their knowledge of permutation and combination in politics have set their target to sit in the coveted but rather hot seat of Chief Minister after the election.

It is too early to predict which party or alliance will get majority and form the next Govt. But talks and speculations are already in the air as some of the present political leaders begin to project themselves at least in their assembly constituencies as the next Chief Minister of Manipur in March '07 - and in the constituencies where Ibobi, Gaikhangam, Radhabinod, Nipamacha, Chandramani fight their elections, the voters begin to think that they are to vote not only an MLA from their constituency but also a Chief Minister of Manipur.

Which party will form the next Govt? Who will be the Chief Minister of Manipur? It sounds as million dollar questions at present. If after the election, a party or an alliance can claim the majority then surely a Chief Minister will be sworn in March 2007.

If the voters have got the help of 'The Time Machine' of Science fiction writer HG wells which can move into the Time Dimension and know happenings of the future in advance or they have got the advice of the witches who predicted Macbeth to be the future King of Scotland, then there will be no guessing. But the charm of election also lies in calculations, opinion polls, ana-lysis etc. So let us keep on guessing for the present.

Election schedules will be announced just in a few days with election dates, dates of nomination, scrutiny and other formalities. as the election draws nearer and nearer, new alliances will emerge. There will be polarisation of parties, friendly contest, multi corner contest and so on to suit the interest of the individual candidate or party. But as the situation stands today, the coming election is bound to be a clash of National Parties versus Regional Party both in the valley and in the hills.

The contest in this State will not be between UPA and NDA, the ruling and opposition parties at the Centre as BJP has kept a low profile all these years and seem to have lost the sting to fight election in the State. However, how far this party has sharpened its teeth under the new President remains to be seen in the days to come.

So for the present calculation, the race for Chief Minister's post will be between Congress and its allies in one side and the regional alliance of MPP and other regional parties.

This writer has the pleasure (sometimes pain) of getting the view of some of the intellectuals. Their opinions are collec-ted not as an opinion poll but to share their views in relation to the two questions put above. Majority of the opinions expressed that the next Chief Minister will be from the Congress party.

Some have their reservation that there will be a non-Congress Govt after the poll. One common opinion is that there will be no single par-ty majority in the coming election so a coalition Govt led by Congress or a coalition of regional and other like minded party will be there.

Can Congress cross 30 marks? Congress will be the only party that will field 60 candidates in all the constituencies. Playing on the achievement card Congress has had high expectation that there will be a single party (Congress) Govt after the election in February. But in reality can Congress fetch the magic number of MLAs of its own is a big question to-day.

One setback for Congress in the hill is the ongoing peace talks between NSCN(IM) and the GOI. The Nagas believe that the Congress-led UPA Govt at the Centre plays foul and delay in the peace talk. This has its effect in the 11 constituencies in the hills where Nagas dominate and have in the past sent their Naga MLAs.

This time rumours are here that Nagas should not vote for the National parties. If this is true, then Congress has to look for its majority from the remaining 49 constituencies most in the 40 valley constituencies.

Despite compelling evidence to the contrary as that of AFSPA and threat of State boundary Congress still dream of a single party rule based on development works which the Congress led SPF have taken up during the last four and a half years. The party hopes to capitalise on it. Though it makes political sense, if Congress wins at least 30 seats, it will be a miracle done by Ibobi, or Man-mohan or Sonia.

On the other side of the battle front, slowly and surely in the valley there is move for alliance of regional parties. The new en-larged MPP has pulled out all stops to win new friends specially the Federal Party MLAs. But there are signs of generalised patterns of disassociation with its agenda among its new found allies.

If the forces of regional party combined together and manage one to one fight with the Congress and its allies and snatch at least single party majority then we can hope for an alternative. But the elected members of Manipur have a pride in themselves. The pride is to forget the promise and commitment made before the poll but to side with the party ruling at the Centre.

If so happens, a Congress led Govt is most favoured after the election. Then a man from Congress party from the following list: Ibobi, Gaikhangam, Meinya, Rishang will be the best contender for the Chief Ministership.