The fourth wave of the pandemic, emergence of a new phase

SK Singh *

In the midst of 'no death report' during the last 6 months, there was a case of death of one last Friday, July 15 (2022). The death toll touched 2121. Till July 10, the positivity rate was hovering around 6 or 7 but for July 3 when it reached 12.4%. By July 16, it peaked to 15.9 a sharp ascent proclaiming imminent danger ahead.

Tracing the trend during the earlier days, we noticed that the last Monday, July 7, the state saw just 45 new cases. The Health Department noted that it was the highest Total Positivity Rate (TPR) at 15.5 since Jan 31. Alarming still was the statement that the new cases and the TPR recorded on this Monday were respectively the daily highest new cases recorded since Feb 24 and also the highest daily positivity rate since Jan 31.

In around just a week by 15, the virus has taken hold in all districts but for Pherjawl. Alarmingly, 89 new cases out of 601 tested, positivity rate touching 14.8%.

By July 7, Covid cases age-group wise were reported to be, 3 in age-group 0-5, 9 in 6-15 years, 4 in 16-18, 91 in 19-60 years, 55 in above 60 years. MOST ALARMING is the incidence in children below 15, still more conspicuous is the attack on kids in age group 0-5.

Equally worrying is the reality of low level of vaccination, both for the first dose as well as the second dose. The worst is reported to be Kangpokpi District where just only 22.85 % took first dose; still worse, only 17.64 % were given second dose. Kangpokpi is sensitive in as much as the Imphal Dimapur road passes through it and it is second biggest market next to Mao. The spread effect could be huge.

Imphal West fares well with 77.84% and 68.25% having been covered under the first and second dose, respectively. The overall state vaccination rate of 62% for first dose and 51% for second dose is still far below the desired level and more needs to be done in this aspect.

In the midst of this feverish situation more troubles are in store. Pressmen of Sangai Express undertook a field survey of important populous places like market places, some government offices and came across total disregard of Covid appropriate behavior.

Covid appropriate protocol and guidelines are thrown to the winds in almost all the places they visited. More worrisome is the reality that in public transports, here the auto rickshaws passengers sit neck to neck that too without any mask.

THE recent initiative taken by the Centre to provide free Covid booster dose for 75 days is a welcome intervention. In effect it turns out that the Centre is observing 'Azadi ka Amrit Mahotsav' to celebrate the 75th anniversary of India's Independence and to boost the uptake of Covid precaution doses, the free doses are assured. All in the age group 18-59 will be eligible for free vaccination at government centers.

The CM has already launched 'COVID Vaccine Amrit Mahotsava'. It will continue till Sep 30. What is called for is the need for people to come forward. The 52% or 61% turnout is understandably, poor. Even poorer districts need be cajoled to come forward. A mass campaign urging the people to appreciate the perils of losing this opportunity is the need of the hour.

The government's action to ascertain the sub-variant of Omicron that is affecting the people by sending samples to Kolkata is indeed timely and need bolstering such precautionary measures. Alongside the reactivating Covid-19 teams that were formed during the previous phases is too timely and would help in effecting cohesion and striking a unified command.

The imperative need for vaccination by all eligible has been highlighted more pointedly this time around considering the reality that there is a case of low vaccination rate in the state. The call for Demographic Evaluation Cell in the Health Directorate needs appreciation as proper and accurate data pattern of all kinds are essential for forward planning.

The WHO Chief Scientist, Soumya Swaminathan has opined that more transmissible sub variants BA.4 and BA.5 are infecting even those who had been vaccinated. According to her, these are immune evasive; higher numbers infected will translate into greater hospitalization and sickness. According to Phillip Schellekens, another authority on the subject, "We are seeing a global U-turn in COVID-19 mortality.

Following months of decline, it has started to rise again". He attributes, among others, the general 'relaxed attitude' towards infection control and around ¾ of the world not being up to date on vaccination. In addition, surveillance had also got reduced significantly including testing and sequencing making it more difficult to assess the impact of variants on transmission, disease characteristics, and effectiveness of counter-measures.

Worldwide, the number of weekly cases increased for the fifth consecutive week, after declining trend since the last peak in March, 2022. During the week of July 4-10, the world over, around 5.7 million new cases were reported, a 6% increase as compared to previous week.

The situation is nothing short of perilous and more stringent measures are called for. Specifically, the prescription of the WHO and the ICMR in terms of specific protocol to be followed by the people need be reinforced to avoid further deterioration of the situation.