Politics of Population Growth in Nagaland

RK Jeermison *

The abnormal population growth rate in Nagaland has intrigued scholars from diverse field of discipline, which indeed, raised concerns on policy making, planning and programme implementation. This unusual phenomenon as many would label, is caught in a schema of political debate defying rational explanation. The State Government maintained that 'false/exaggerated reporting' in the census has been the chief factor for the high growth rate in the census of 1991 and 2001 in Nagaland.

The Government on various occasions found that most of the villages recorded exaggerated population figures believing that they would get more financial allocations from the Government for various rural development schemes. This misperception spelt out an unrelenting error in the census of India. The official statement on the high population growth in 2001 is stuck to the 'false census returns' discarding other potential and compounding factors that might have affected the high population growth in the State.

"The surprise story is of Nagaland, which recorded a negative growth rate of -0.47 per cent. The finding is in sharp contrast with the Census Report of 2001, when Nagaland recorded a high growth rate of 64.41 per cent. Nagaland has now become the only State in the country to record a negative growth rate. The unusually high growth rate was attributed to inflated figures dished out by some tribes to boost their population figure. There were allegations of some tribes giving inflated figures last time. This time we have made it clear that post census surveys, biometric count would be undertaken, Union Home Secretary, GK Pillai told newsmen" (The Assam tribune, 2011). Interestingly, the decadal growth rate of 1981-91 did not cause any major concern in the hill state. It was the 2001 Census data that triggered a major controversy with Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio declaring it defective on several occasions.

Indeed, growth rate observed from the recently concluded census (a growth rate of -4.7 in 2011) vindicated the argument maintained by the state government. In demographic exercise, one would claim that the trend of population growth rate in the state is not surprising as it appears to be smooth displaying a reasonable flow although it is bizarrely high.

Since 1901, Nagaland has experienced high population growth which registers more increase after the state was granted statehood in 1962. Although errors in the census is pertinent for any analysis, however, going by the trend it is perhaps not the 2001 growth rate which might be incorrect but the recent report of 2011 census is much more of a problem.

In 1901-11 the decadal growth rate in Nagaland is 46.75 percent, which slide down to 6.55 percent in 1911-21. After this it picked up slowly steadily increasing to an imperceptible rate of 73.35 % in 1951-61. Even after it was granted statehood and also the implementation of family planning programme in India in early 1950s, there is no significant reduction in its population but instead is showing a steady increase. In the decade of 1961-71 the rate was 40 percent which increase by 10 percentage point in 1971-81 (50.05%). In 1981-91 it increased by 5 percentage points (56.05%) and further to 64.53 percent in 1991-01.

Observing chronically the increase since 1901, there is not much of confusion and therefore is weak enough to conclude 'false reporting' as the prime factor for the high growth rate in 1991 and 2001 census as maintained by the Government. Since the population base of the State is low any mass influx of population or group migration could easily raised such a figure.

Migration of course is an important factor for the problem. Analysis of census data of 2001 however makes up a meagre 4.4 per cent of migrants to the total population of Nagaland which is an insignificant factor. But also important is that illegal migrants and immigrants cannot be left out for the explanation to the problem. "Evidently, the silent and unchecked influx of illegal immigrants in the state has played a crucial role in this abnormal growth"

Illegal immigration has been taking place in Nagaland, especially in areas bordering Assam, since the early 1970s or even earlier, but it has picked up since the 1980s. Estimates about the total population of illegal immigrants in Nagaland are not forthcoming and these estimates vary from100, 000 to 300,000. In 1999, Thuingaleng Muivah, the general secretary of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), estimated two lakh Bangladeshis in the Dimapur area.

But in 2000, the Union Home Ministry estimated about 75,000 illegal immigrants in the State. In 2003, the Nagaland Government estimated approximately one lakh illegal immigrants who had settled in the foothills of the State bordering Assam. Based on this estimates, we can assume there are at least 1 lakh illegal immigrants in the State.

Census of India 2001 reported the presence of at least one lakh migrants in Nagaland, and as mentioned, if illegal migrants and immigrants hypothetically makes up one to two lakh, then the total migrants in Nagaland could possibly hover around three to four lakh. Because of its close social and biological affinities of the Nagas in Burma, identification of illegal immigrants is bound to be difficult.

The high growth rate also "support the fear expressed by Nagaland Chief Minister S C Jamir about a year back that Nagaland will be the next State to be hit by large-scale illegal migration by Bangladeshis after Assam". Therefore, referring 2001 population growth as false reporting is inconsistent and that the problem should concentrate more on the recent data that reported minus 0.47 per cent.

If on the contrary, the stand taken by the Government (exaggerated census report in 1981-91 &1991-2001) should be correct than obviously one will question the rate of 1971-81 which is a high 50 percent. No empirical evidence can justify the high growth of population in 1991 and 2001. We only hypothesized that exaggerated figures reported and migration could possibly be the factors which cannot be hard proved. By omitting migration (including illegal migration) as a factor by the State Government, there is the suspicious move and clandestine operation on the political front.

Interestingly no one has bother about the presence of illegal migrants originating from Myanmar since they belong to the same community ie Nagas, but are more concerned with migrants originating from Bangladesh. It seems that the Government justifies illegal immigrants of the Nagas from Myanmar as legal. Due to the persistent human rights violations of the Nagas in the Sangaing division of Myanmar, we can assume volume of migrants in Nagaland.

The Negative Population Growth Rate in 2011 Census

On the other side of the story is the question on the negative population growth rate recorded in the recently concluded census. What are the factors that could explain away this abnormal phenomenon? In 2011, the total population of the State comes down to 1,980,602, which is 9,434 less than in 2001. When we justify 1991 and 2001 population growth as a normal trend than evidently the 'false or exaggerated census' maintained by the Government becomes incorrect, which again situates us to a more complex analysis.

The Population Foundation of India projected the population of Nagaland to the tune of 2.5 million in 2011, but the actual count is much lesser revealing a deficit of 4.5 lakh persons approximately. Their projection is highly honored because of its accuracy raising more concern on the negative growth rate. There is no incidence in the decade, such as massive out-migration, mortality, population reduction because of natural calamities, or driving out foreigners/mainstream Indians ..... as it happens in Manipur, therefore it might scaled down to 'false census result' in 2011 which again cannot be verified. As mentioned the debate on the high population growth in 2001 and minus growth in 2011 is subjective and is based only on assumptions.

Let us try to picture out what factors could have possibly explained the negative population growth rate in 2011, leaving aside 'false reporting' as the factor for a while. Some factors worthwhile to mention although less significant are; (i) Mortality…the annual death rate reported during the last decade is estimated at 4.6 (SRS 2008). Lately the state is experiencing the loss of potential youths to drug addiction and HIV/AIDS; (ii) fertility level (17.5/1000 population as of March 2008. MoHFW) should be low in order to justify the argument and (iii) out-migration… which is yet to be made available in 2011 census data have kept us sightless to bring out any further analysis.

The Naga Civil Society has also involved in Census awareness campaign and it is doubtless that the current total provisional population report is erroneous. Let us assume that there is no negative growth rate in 2011 then the two decadal growth rate from 1991-2011 (20yrs) will be 63.94% (and no 64.41%). Assuming that the two decadal growth rate is 63.94% and have same two decadal growth rate then it is possible that the growth rate would be about 31.97% in 2001 as well as in 2011.

On the contrary, many claimed that it is not possible to have -0.47% growth rate in Nagaland and it is firmly believed that the Census operation was carried out very strictly and the total population of 1,980602 is correct. The decadal growth rate for the year 2001-2011 is -0.47% gives an impression that there must be a mass migration or death rate is more than the birth rate in Nagaland. In fact there was no such happenings but was believed that due to manipulation made by the villagers or Census enumerators in previous Census report to get more developmental fund and schemes for their villages (or other reasons) is responsible for the current situation.

In this analysis we try to give more accuracy (partially) to the census 2001 returns which is claimed as flawed by others, and have placed the recent census 2011with minus growth as false reporting. However the assumption on out-migration needs further clarification.

Out-Migration or false Census 2011 ?

As stated, data on out-migration is yet to be made available and one would have to wait for further references. But inferences can be drawn by observing the political situation in Nagaland in the last decade. Politically troubled states, such as Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura and Assam are reported to have witnessed a sizeable number of out-migrants than in-migrants recently.

"They are motivated to move as forced by the pull of employment opportunities, higher wages, better quality of living, better education and better family considerations and are prompted by the push of a hard situation at home, actual or perceived. In ultimate analysis, disparities in opportunity and quality indices of places are the underlying rationale for people to change their place of residence".

A region like the North Eastern part of India in which educational infrastructure is backward and inadequate; and employment opportunities scarce, the young population is eager to migrate in search of better education and employment opportunities. The determinants of migration may be economic, demographic, socio-cultural, psychological and political, and institutional. Marriage was cited as the pre-dominant reason for migration among females. Migration is an inevitable process in population dynamics and therefore cannot be discarded as a factor for any changing landscape.

The negative growth rate in the State therefore is a mystery as no potential factors could be established to explain this unusual phenomenon. People have the tendency to move around in search of greener pasture and therefore, out-migration can be one factor for the negative population growth rate in Nagaland in recent times. However, this is too weak to explain the rate and therefore false census returns in 2011 is commendable (also justifying 2001 census as incorrect).

But the question is why would the population report a lower figure in 2011 instead of exaggerating the figure to avail more financial allotments as believed to be the sole criteria for the high growth in the previous census? The paradox is yet to unveil but for now both the stand taken by the Government and our analysis should remain accurate at all cost.

Conclusion

The high population growth rate in 2001 and the negative growth in 2011 of Nagaland could be attributed to a variety of explanations, and all these are subjective and hypothetical inferences which can be partially or wholly true. The State Government does not divert its review from the false/exaggerated returns in the census of 2001 which explain the recent negative growth rate, nor do they explore other factors that could have possibly affected the problem.

They hastily rectified by blaming the population to have reported exaggerated figures apparently leaving us in apprehension on the motive of the Government. Various interlink factors might be in operation on the political situation of Nagaland to yield such results. Literatures have supported the presence of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in volumes but are oblivious on the migration taking place from Myanmar.

Nagas in Myanmar are facing hard times living under military rules and therefore population movement along the border is conspicuous. But the Government is silent on this because of their close affinities socially and biologically. There are every possibility that large scale migration along the borders of Myanmar could have taken place during the span of ten years and this might explain the high and negative population growth rate of Nagaland in 1981-91-01 and 2001-11.

Lastly we conclude that both factors—false census report and migration of the 2001 and 2011 census in any form—can be the reasons for this unusual population growth in Nagaland.