Peace Talk A confused picture

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Peace Talk: A Confused Picture

By: Oinam Anand *

'If required we shall have to fight again to get our right'
— Kraibo Chawang, NSCN(IM) spokesman

'Discussions are a continuous process and there cannot be a particular time frame'
— Oscar Fernandes, Union Minister.

If we go by these two comments made by each party involved after the talks between NSCN(IM) and GoI in Amsterdam May 18-20, we do not definitely fail to know how much impatient and restlessness are there in the camp of NSCN(IM) on the ongoing series of peace talks held in New Delhi or Bangkok or Amsterdam in the last couple of years and how New Delhi is playing the game of postponement by buying time again and again.

Indeed the latest round of peace talks between GoI and NSCN(IM), 18-20 May ended in a buoyant note with both parties agreeing to hold parley within a month. The talks of the last week in Amsterdam will be as important as the previous talks on the part of the NSCN(IM) but on the other side of the negotiating table it seems just to sit on the proposal date and end with a promise to move forward with another round of talks on the next date.

The first ceasefire between NSCN(IM) and GoI struck on July 25, 1997 when there was a non-Congress Govt at the Centre. The talks continued till then by extending the ceasefire date line again and again and even reached, a climax, an exploding situation in June 2001 during the tenure of BJP led NDA Govt in New Delhi under AB Vajpayee. The June uprising, the mass protest at Imphal had turned the table and the NDA Govt had to swallow back the words 'without any territorial limit'.

Now Congress-led UPA Govt's Common Minimum Programme (CMP) clearly discourage the re-grouping of Naga inhabited areas. The NSCN(IM) is strongly against the policy featured in the CMP of the UPA. To add salt to the injury, the opinion of the Centre with regard to taking into confidence the neighbouring states mean to postpone the matter sine die.

For more than five decades the insurgency in Nagaland was deeply committed to the goal of a separate independent Naga State. They were in wilderness in the jungles of NE fightings here and there with GoI. But that long drawn war did not have as much headache to the GoI as did in the case of Khalistan in Punjab and that of Kashmir at present.

But peace process do not see the number and magnitude of the warring party. This is what the GoI has been doing in the case of NSCN(IM).

'NSCN (IM) wants total independence' - against this backdrop it is indeed amazing that the outfit now seems to opt for integration of Naga inhabited areas under one administration unit. Yes there are widespread jubilations in all the Naga areas on account of this perceived change of position by the NSCN(IM).

This very jubilation has also the possibility of evaporating into thin air in due course of time because every decision of exploring possibility does not automatically guarantee the desired goal which lead to ultimate success.

Monitoring the process of dialogue for the last five or six years, the track records of the negotiating efforts say that there is no pot of gold at the foot of the rainbow on earth at all and the talks may end up as a wild goose chase. There is every possibility of a conclusive agreement being an elusive one.

In order to ensure the support of public opinion in formulating a solution which they desired, the NSCN(IM) is engaging a two-pronged strategy at present. On the upper level it is still talking with GoI and put the seal of approval on the extension of the ceasefire dateline.

Behind the curtain, it is resorting to controversial actions done through its NGOs such as blockade of the National Highways even on an issue of non importance and on petty matters such as payment of house tax to the Centre or to the Nagaland Govt and threat to prescribe text books taught under Nagaland Board of Secondary Education.

By these moves, NSCN (IM) hope to gain advantages in terms of media publicity that Nagas are deprived of their rights under Manipur Govt. The recent episode of display of banners at Senapati welcoming Shri Ibobi to 'South Nagalim' is also a part of this tactics, the tactics of testing the tolerance of the valley people.

Whether the CM of Manipur has shown his dignity as a CM by ignoring the display is another matter. What he did was what he thought right at that moment. Let us take it on the positive side and let us not make a mountain out of this molehill.

The NSCN(IM) is not negotiating in a true sense but negotiating in a spirit of bargaining. Usually hard bargaining is most effective in a one-off negotiations such as bargaining on the streets with pavement hawkers.

It is important to note that despite the optimism of holding several round of talks held in Delhi, Bangkok and Amsterdam the possibility of subsequent exploration, hitting a number of snags cannot be ruled out. Besides the decision to pursue a Nagalim by plucking out land from other States is by no means coherent or definitive.

It is somewhat vague in detail and lends itself to an appearance of ambiguity. What has evolved in the recent talks of May 18-20 and the series of talks held earlier? It ends up only an overall joint statement of intent of exploring an amicable solution without putting any specific time frame, note of unity and substance.

The peace process should not arrive at a logical conclusion, instead it should collapse without a satisfying solution being structured. If and when that happens can the NSCN(IM) opt out and exercise its 'right of separation as an independent state from India and pursue a seccessionist war again?

Will the Nagas prepare for another hundred years of war?

Oinam Anand wrote this article for The Sangai Express
This article was webcasted on June 12th, 2006

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