16th Lok Sabha poll : Wind of change
- The Sangai Express Editorial :: May 16 , 2014 -

The long anxious wait is finally coming to an end.

The fate of over one billion Indians for the next five years would be revealed tomorrow.

Whatever way the poll results go, Dr Manmohan Singh would not be present at the South Block.

He has already announced in public to abdicate the most powerful seat of Prime Minister.

With the counting of votes scheduled tomorrow, speculations are rife whether Narendra Modi would succeed the soft-spoken Congress leader or the Gandhi scion would rise to the ultimate position his mother and many other Congress leaders have been pointing to for the past many years.

Exit polls favour the saffron party and in case the predictions turn out true, Rahul Gandhi must wait at least five more years before he takes rein of the world's second most populous country.

Narendra Modi, the Gujarat Chief Minister seems destined to lead the country as far as the exit polls go.

No doubt, there is no rival for Narendra Modi within BJP and the saffron party indeed hinged its election campaign on the achievements and personality of Narendra Modi. 'Gujarat model' was what was touted by BJP propagandists.

With neither Congress nor BJP likely to secure absolute majority, the race for power would reflect to a much larger arena, involving many more players, divided between UPA and NDA.

Assuming that NDA emerges victorious, there arise two critical questions.

First, can Narendra Modi mobilize and win support of all NDA partners?

The spat between the BJP's prime ministerial candidate and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in the run up to the 16th Lok Sabha election was no secret.

Can Narendra Modi's leadership cement the fractures seen within the National Democratic Alliance?

Can the Gujarat Chief Minister win the support and keep at bay whims of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha? Whether the leadership of Narendra Modi can keep both Shiv Sena and JD(U) within the fold of NDA demands in-depth analysis given Shiv Sena's right wing characteristics and frequent attacks on Biharis at Mumbai and other places of Maharashtra.

As the saying goes, "There are no permanent foes or friends in politics", the sparring groups may declare ceasefire and somehow keep the alliance alive under some sort of political equation beneficial to all parties.

No party would hang on to the alliance if the power balance is not favourable to them, if the antecedents are any indication.

One needs only to look back at how and when Mamata Banerjee or Trinamool Congress left UPA or for that matter why Jayalalitha and AIADMK left the Vajpayee-led NDA. As always, coalition government is a tricky game of numbers.

The second question is, can the 'Gujarat model' of economic development be replicated at the national level.

Narendra Modi's Gujarat model of economy is driven by ultra liberalism which of course is highly favourable to big capitalist class, MNCs and corporates.

Time will only tell whether the Gujarat model can protect and promote the economic interests of the teeming millions of the country's poor and middle class depending on the election result.

Again, assuming that NDA comes to power, one interesting question which unfolds on its own is what shape the Centre-State relationship would take.

Can the State's Congress Government carry on the ongoing many multi-crore projects in the absence of UPA Government at the centre, Manipur being a poor State with little revenue of its own?

It is a foregone conclusion, BJP would not only take roots but flourish on the soil of Manipur in case NDA topples the incumbent UPA Government at the Centre.

Such a scenario would be a serious challenge to the status of invincibility presently enjoyed by Congress party in Manipur.

Politicians of Manipur are such specimen who unfolds umbrella at Imphal when there is rainfall at Delhi.

Will BJP mount surveillance over Okram Ibobi and his company? Remember the BJP State unit president's open declaration to take Ibobi and his team to task if BJP comes to power.

Will Narendra Modi turn out the ultimate nemesis of Ibobi and Gaikhangam?

Only the election results and time can answer these questions.

Exit polls smell wind of change.