Statistics don't lie, but does it matter?

Loghan H. *

The race is on between our power to damage and our ability to achieve balance with the system. Can we act before circumstances force our hand? Hamlet had less than half an hour to live before he finally killed Claudious. It's high time for all of us to break the 'Hamlet Syndrome' and start acting to make corrective steps to streamline some of the fundamental flaws in our system!

It is true that no one is free of some sort of ideological baggage – we all have different set of opinions in the ongoing issue of encounter killings, different set of priorities, and different set of solutions. It has been 19 days since the publication of Tehelka photos and there has been allegation and counter allegation from all corners.

True, each of the parties has enough reasons and justifications to put forward its cause but what is conspicuous in its absence is the marked empiricism: to see the recent events as it is, in all its complexity, to avoid preconceived ideas as far as possible, to look at the evidence, and see where it leads.

Encounter deaths - before and after Tehelka

-	19 Days Before Tehelka*	19 Days After Tehelka
Encounter Deaths	13	2
Encounter injuries	4	2
Number of arrests	18	73**
Frequency of death	35 hr	228 hr
Chances of fatality	49%	5%
Weapons recovered after encounter	-	-
9mm	8	1
AK	-	-
Revolver/pistol	1	1
Grenade	-	-
Weapons recovered after arrests	-	-
9mm	2	4
AK	1	6
Revolver/pistol	2	1
Grenade	1	2

*information primarily pertains to valley districts
**this includes some Manipuri insurgents arrested outside the state as well.
Source: Sangai Express; Imphal Free Press and Huyen Lanpao (14th July 2009 to 19th August 2009)

Within a span of 38 days (19 days before and after Tehelka episode), a very interesting trend has emerged in the encounter incidence in the state. The number of encounter deaths has drastically been reduced – there were 13 encounter deaths in the 19 days before the Tehelka episode, but the number of deaths has gone down to 2 in the next 19 days. Likewise the number of encounter injuries has been halved during the same period (from 4 to 2). The reversal of trends is indeed a remarkable turn around!

What is alarming though is the non-obvious message these figures convey – there is an encounter death in every '35 hr'; that's a staggering statistics. If '35 hr' is not intimidating enough, one could add that there is only 50% chance of survival in case of an encounter or an arrest in the state (this excludes the untold happenings in remote places and hill areas).

No wonder why some people would say, 'you are alive in Manipur, because you are just plain lucky!'. Many skeptics would argue that 19 days is not 'good enough' to make an inference. Well, if one goes by the number of encounter deaths in the preceding years, then perhaps the in-famous '35 hr' would have come down to '23 hr'.

The Ministry of Home Affairs figures suggest that during the last five years (2004-2008) there were 1866 insurgent related fatalities; the figure of last year alone was 499 fatalities. Therefore, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to assume that the figures of pre-Tehelka period (19 days) in the state were pretty consistent with the overall trend of the last five years. It at all there was an error in the assumption; it was the error of underestimation not overestimation.

Insurgency related Fatalities in Manipur: 2004- 2008

Year	Civilians	SFs	Insurgents	Total
2004*	88	36	134	258
2005*	158	50	202	410
2006*	96	28	187	311
2007*	130	39	219	388
2008**	136	16	347	499
Total	608	169	1089	1866

* Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Government of India
** South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

Another intriguing feature is that every encounter death is invariably associated with the infamous '9mm pistol', prior to the Tehelka episode. Hardly there was recovery of any other fire-arms in an encounter; if at all there were recoveries of other fire-arms, they were invariably retrieved from hidden places.

This infamous trend has raised serious doubts in the authenticity of various encounter claims and many have even accused law enforcing agencies, though unsubstantiated in most of the cases, of staging fake encounters. There was less number of fire-arms recoveries from arrests than from encounters with fatality, before the Tehelka episode.

But things have changed since the Tehelka episode, and the trend has been turned upside down in recovery of arms as well. More number of firearms has been recovered from arrests than from encounters – a strange coincidence indeed!

The accelerated killing in the state has suddenly come to a grinding halt after the Tehelka episode – the encounter deaths has been reduced to a manageable level (only 2 in the last 19 days). From a staggering figure of an encounter death in every '35 hr' before the Tehelka, it has now come down to an encounter death in every '228 hr' after the Tehelka.

The chances of fatality in an arrest/encounter have come down from an astounding 50% to a mere 5%, within a period of 19 days, if the trend after Tehelka were to go by. Likewise, proportion of arrests to fatality has gone-up several hundred folds – from a 50:50 situation to a 95:5 situation. In the same breadth, there is more number of fire-arms recovered in arrests than that of arms recovered in encounters in post Tehelka period. What a remarkable turn around in a short period of 19 days?

The sudden reversal of trend, though a positive sign in every way, has also raised many questions on the functional viability of the system itself. A system which is easily susceptible to the whims of a few power mongers is doomed to fail in the long run, but in the short term it might also obliterate many of those who have opposing views.

The chaos and untold sufferings in the state are perhaps the consequences of the efforts people put on to bring a balance to the system. Though a Tahelka may have brought a temporary halt to the carnage, but believe me, it will not take long for the system to take a new avatar and resume its destructive course, if we all remain as mute spectators.

Like an intelligent mutant gene, it will be cleverer, more experienced, more elusive and more destructive. Imagine a system which could make a complete turn around of the process (the killing trend) in 19 days, not because it was wrong, in-human and the public were against it, but because it would put them in a sticky situation.

Well, the possibility is limitless!

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* Loghan H. contributes to e-pao.net for the first time. The writer can be contacted at loghan(dot)man(at)gmail(dot)com
This article was webcasted on August 24th, 2009.

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