At the risk of sounding too presumptuous, I can vouch for the optimism that the Naga peace talks will turn out-as far as the territorial integrity question of Manipur is concerned- to be a damp squib, after all. No less than Prime Minister, AB Vajpayee and Union Home Minister, LK Advani have assured the Chief Minster of Manipur, Okram Ibobi that Manipur's map will remain unchanged, whatever be the outcome of the peace talks. If they backtrack on their assurances-which is unlikely- it is anybody's guess that virtually the entire populace of Manipur will consider taking up arms to rub shoulders with the existing armed rebel groups of Manipur or at least lend them a helping hand to secede from the Union of India. Given the emotive nature of this issue, New Delhi knows it can't play footsie with Isak Swu and Th. Muivah at the cost of dismemberment of Manipur.

Besides the heart warming assurances of the Indian leadership, another reason for Manipuris to heave a sigh of relief is that NSCN (IM) surprisingly seems to be softening its stand on Nagalim issue though they have had stated to the contrary for public consumption. Allow this contention to be corroborated by the following analysis.

The talks have begun without any pre-talks "conditions" which means that any issue including that of Nagalim will be open to discussion at the negotiating table. But by declaring publicly that Manipur's borders will be kept intact even before the substantive talks get underway, New Delhi is openly breaching the "unconditional" nature of the peace talks. It amounts to setting a condition even before the "unconditional talks" have barely begun. That the NSCN (IM) turns a blind eye to this anomaly and has not protested is a subtle indication that it is not serious about the Nagalim as it would have us believe. Otherwise one would have expected a far more threatening reaction from the NSCN (IM)'s leadership even to the extent of walking out on the peace process itself.

I suspect that that Isak Swu and Th. Muivah are using the Nagalim issue more as a stick to browbeat the Indian interlocutors into granting more concessions to the Nagas and less as a genuine demand. Their gameplan may be to raise this issue persistently and swap it with other concessions like greater autonomy, economic package, separate flag, dual passportships, and whatever other hard demands they may have in their resourceful minds.

No doubt, the issue of Nagalim has been at the core of both factions of NSCN's existence. In fact, as widely reported, the credibility and legitimacy of NSCN (IM)'s chief Th. Muivah (whose original home is Ukhrul in Manipur) is drawn from its commitment to integrating Naga inhabited areas of Northeast into the existing geographical entity of Nagaland. From the surface, it looks as if Nagalim is a sacrosanct issue of the Nagas that won't be compromised at any cost. And so is the question of Naga's sovereignty. Now both these two demands seem to be on the backburner.

This supposed major policy U-turn may be attributed to their realization that their original demands of Nagalim and sovereignty at this point of time are untenable and unsustainable. Their demands particularly that of Greater Nagaland not only seeks to undermine the historical and territorial heritage of Manipur, but also challenges her dignity and right for self-determination-values that NSCN (IM) claims to stand for.

So, with the NSCN (IM) showing subtle signs of a climbdown and as a political consensus on keeping the borders of Manipur unaltered emerges, articulated by no less a person than the Prime Minister of this country, the people of Manipur can have their sound sleep and not be frightened by the sound bytes from the NSCN (IM). Mr. Swu and Muivah's public threats/ pronouncements should not be taken at their face value for they are meant to be just a pressure tactic to extract maximum political concessions from New Delhi within the Constitutional framework of India. Seen in this light their provocative statements should not scare us into fits of unwarranted paranoia.

For the Manipuris, it's time to sit back and watch the outcome of the peace talks. The world has already acknowledged Manipur's case for territorial inviolability. They have also seen how one flawed ceasefire agreement threw up 18 instant martyrs and witnessed statewide revolution in its wake. And we are still shouting from our rooftops that we cannot be taken for a ride. Will they take another chance?

One more thing, in our zeal to protect Manipur's territory, we have forgotten to wish Nagaland lasting peace. Lest we be taken as narrow minded people who rejoice in seeing the Nagas down, let us give them our sincere moral support to come out with flying colours at the end of the peace talks. It is also imperative that we show them we are not against the talks per se, but against their unjustified demands that encroach on our domain. Let us wish them success. And to do this we need to exorcise the specter of Nagalim from our mindset.
Amen.