In Manipur elections, a test for 'Nagalim'

The Hindu | Vasundhara Sirnaterahul Verma | January 27, 2012 :

When Manipur goes to the polls, there is much for the rest of India to pay attention to. "Last year, Ibobi and his cabinet decided that they will not allow the Naga Chief Minister to enter the State, but now that the elections have been announced, he no longer has the power to prevent me from coming here and meeting you … But if you let him win again I will not be able to come to Manipur to meet all of you." That was Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, speaking at an election rally in Manipur's Tamenglong district on January 19. He was addressing a gathering of Manipuri Nagas while campaigning for candidates of the Nagaland People's Front (NPF) that is contesting the Assembly elections for the first time in Manipur.

This public shot at the Manipur Chief Minister, Okram Ibobi Singh, has much history. Mr. Rio and Mr. Ibobi are both equally dynamic leaders and have forged serious political reputations. Mr. Rio has been engaged in galvanising support of the Naga population in Manipur and Mr. Ibobi has acquired a reputation for being hard on insurgent groups. Both have become political leaders in their States in challenging times. Nagaland and Manipur are insurgency-hit States and the levels and type of insurgency in both States are deeply connected.

How do we explain Mr. Rio's curious political commentary that has involved calling Mr. Ibobi, a Manipuri Meitei, “an enemy of the Nagas?” And how do we analyse what the electoral consequences of such polarising speech might be.

Manipur has nine districts and 60 Assembly constituencies. Thirty-nine constituencies lie in the Meitei dominated valley, which forms the heart of the Congress' electoral calculus in the State. In the last two decades, forging a majority in the Assembly has proved tough for any political party. And Mr. Ibobi's two terms as Chief Minister have provided some political stability in the State that saw seven governments between 1990 and 2002. Mr. Rio's provocative speeches are intended to break Mr. Ibobi's popularity by polarising the Meitei and Naga voters. His calculation rests on attempting to position some of the 12 NPF candidates in the Manipur Assembly, in a bid to further the demand for Greater Nagalim within the Manipur Assembly. However, the Meiteis who live in the small Manipur Valley are 60 per cent of the population. The Manipuri Nagas cohabit with Kuki tribes in four hill districts of Manipur - Tamenglong, Ukhrul, Senapati and Chandel.

The upcoming Assembly elections are of key significance because they have the potential to mainstream the demands by the NPF and the Kuki groups and bring them under the purview of political discussion conducted by elected representatives. However, Manipuri Nagas have often resisted attempts by the NSCN (I-M) to incorporate them. For the Central government, negotiating with the Naga insurgent leadership has become a standard policy, evinced by two ceasefires. With the Naga insurgency in its 65th year, Kuki groups fear that Greater Nagalim may come about sooner than expected, if only to put an end to the persistent NSCN (I-M) demand and their insurgent activities.

Regardless of the political outcome in Manipur, Mr. Rio's speech allows him to appear committed to the Nagalim cause, especially to voters in Nagaland. This will help him politically in the 2013 Assembly elections in Nagaland. For the NPF, Mr. Rio's speeches could help forge electoral coalitions that benefit the party in Manipur. However, a Congress leader has noted that Mr. Rio's efforts will only consolidate the non-Naga voters, which include the Meiteis and the Kukis. Mr. Ibobi has also expressed the doubt that Manipuri Nagas will be drawn in by Mr. Rio's rhetoric. This boomerang effect may end up favouring Mr. Ibobi and the Congress (I).