Though Manipur has been in the list of place affected by highly fatalistic H5N1 strain of the Avian influenza- commonly known as “bird flu” its implication and potent is something the health officials, veterinary officials and administrators and even the media are yet to fully understand. It’s a “clear and present danger” which to the officials is neither clear nor present.

It is a huge challenge before the international community as the world has never seen the kind of widespread affliction of this virus as is seen today. Scientists and animal health monitors across the globe are baffled at the scale. They are worried at the potential of this virus mutating – a shift as they call it, to a strain that could affect human being. This worry is not without a cause or a history.

Across the globe different strains of this virus - an A type has mutated to kill nearly 53 million or 23 times the population of Manipur (2.3 million) since 1918.

Surprisingly it is from a small farm in Kansas, in United States of America that the first pandemic originated. Known as Spanish Flu caused by H1N1 strain - it killed 500,000 in US alone and anything between 20 to 50 million worldwide.

The second pandemic by another subtype H2N2 known as Asian Flu killed another 70,000 in US and 2 million worldwide between 1957-58. The third and last pandemic by H3N2 called Hongkong Flu killed 50,000 in US and 1 million worldwide between 1968-69.

This is a scary scenario but we don’t have to panic said Dan Rutz, of Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Atlanta, who briefed media men from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in a series of workshop organized by the American Centre at New Delhi and Kolkata. Pandemics rarely occur and despite reports of Avian Influenza, we do not have a pandemic, he stressed.

But the United States is certainly on its toe. Though stringent quarantine laws on livestock imports and isolation of American continent from Europe and Asian mainland has so far spared the country from current outbreak, it is not taking any chances.

In the International Ministerial Conference on Avian and Pandemic Influenza in New Delhi last early last month December 4-6, 2007, US team led by Ambassador John Lange pledged US $434 million to underscore his countries commitment in fighting the virus.

The US concern is understandably given the fact that recent outbreak which has been identified as caused by highly fatalistic H5N1 strain has killed 206 out of 335 human cases in 12 countries. This is a high 61% fatality rate something quite disturbing for the scientist community as well as health officials.

Luckily so far there have been no cases of human to human transmission- and this is an area – human to human transmission, those scientists are worried about.

Because if and when it does take place- and scientists believe it is likely but difficult to predict, given the present situation- increased mobility of the population across nations, more urbanization and increasing number of elderly with chronic medial problem the affect is going to be devastating.

Manipur is now joined by the West Bengal where H5N1 has been positively identified at a farm in Birbhum. Like Manipur nearly three lakhs of poultry birds are going to be culled and international attention focused.

Thousands of veterinary personals will be going out in protection kits to cull the birds in next few weeks and for month’s poultry markets affected. But there are lessons to be learnt from Manipur experience where everything was apparently carried out by the book but just apparently.

Without going into details of what went amiss it would do well for the officials to go through stories on bird flu in Manipur in local dailies which recorded the entire episode.

All that can be said is that it was well laid plan poorly implemented. There was lack of coordination amongst all involved governmental agencies including the law enforcers which did not know what to do with people smuggling birds out of culling zones to how much to be compensated for a turkey the price of which was not in the list of birds to be culled.

Clearly the need of the hour is for clearer understanding of the threat perception of the virus.

Read news timeline on Bird Flu in Manipur here.