Will Myanmar talk to the Kokang army? - I

Dr Puyam Rakesh Singh *

Burma Myanmar Flag

The unilateral ceasefire declared by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), popularly known as Kokang Army has brought some bumpy roads ahead in the processes for signing the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in Myanmar. It came into effect on 11 June after the Chinese government contacted the Kokang army to cease hostilities to restore normalcy. Many ethnic armed groups constituting the National Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) signed a draft NCA with the Myanmar government's peace negotiators on 31st March this year.

It happened when the Kokang Army was fighting against the Myanmar armed forces since early February. The MNDAA is a member of the NCCT, but it is not officially recognised by the Government of Myanmar. Therefore, the Kokang Army was not part of the deal. The successful negotiation and signing of the draft agreement pleased many who have been hoping to see peace in the civil war-ravaged Southeast Asian country. However, China was not satisfied with the outcome of the peace deal as the conflict in Kokang region disturbed peace and stability along the border areas.

As the conflict escalated, border security became the major theme during exchanges between the two sides. The open letter by the MNDAA leader Pheung Kya-shin (also written as Peng Jiasheng) appealing to Chinese people everywhere to offer a helping hand to the Kokang Chinese also increased ill feelings and suspicion. The conflict became a major problem following the Lincang bombing on 13th March.

Earlier, another stray bombing destroyed a house in China on 8th of the same month. The Kokang Self-administered Region shares border with Lincang Prefecture of Yunnan Province of China. The conflict in this region has affected mostly Zhenkang and Gengma Counties of Lincang Prefecture. In addition to the stray bombing cases, over 60,000 refugees took shelter in China since the beginning of the offensives in February. Geographical proximity and ethnicity are key issues. Beijing has approached Naypyitaw with a multi-pronged strategy to resolve the Kokang conflict.

Vice Foreign Minister of China, Liu Zhenmin lodged a representation to Myanmar Embassy soon after the bombing which killed five Chinese citizens and injured many others. Again, a senior officer of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Fan Changlong, who is also a member of the Central Military Commission of the PLA threatened to take "firm and decisive action" in case of similar stray bombing in future while talking over the phone with the Commander-in-Chief of Myanmar defence forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The two sides established a joint investigation committee to confirm the party behind the deadly bombing as blame game continued between the MNDAA and Myanmar forces. In order to normalize the situation, China appealed to the warring parties to take "China's concerns seriously". But Beijing learned it soon that it could not achieve the goal easily after so much bloodshed.

To bring an end to the conflict, Beijing made contact with the leader of the Kokang Army. This led to the unilateral ceasefire declaration mentioning China's repeated requests for stability and the Myanmar people's aspiration for peace before the general election in November. Though some Myanmar officials had called upon the group to give up arms and cease hostilities, the MNDAA announced their decision to defend itself if attacked by the government forces. Naypyitaw has no willing taker for this ceasefire and military offensives continue in the Kokang region bordering Yunnan Province of China.

Are the Kokang Chinese differently treated in Myanmar? Historical baggage and fear of the powerful neighbour meddling in the internal affairs of Myanmar could have influenced the decision-making process in Naypyitaw. Nevertheless, China has repeatedly stated its official position on non-interference and respect for Myanmar's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Reciprocity and mutual respect are necessary in diplomacy. Some issues cannot be resolved with words and statements only. Actions are necessary to win confidence of the partners. Myanmar must be expecting something from Beijing to resolve the decades-long ethnic armed conflicts along the China-Myanmar border. The MNDAA and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) are sensitive issues in China-Myanmar relationship since the break-up of the BCP.

On 29th June, China's special envoy on Asian affairs, Sun Guoxiang met Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. They discussed the future course of peace process after the rejection of the draft NCA in Law Khee Lar conference of the ethnic armed groups. For China, including the MNDAA in the peace deal to stop further spilling over of the conflict and maintaining stability in the border areas are the major aims. The position taken by the ethnic armed groups in the conference is a positive development to find a lasting peace in northern Myanmar. This, however, is not pleasing news for Myanmar government as the ethnic groups have strengthened their bargaining position for an inclusive peace deal that includes the MNDAA, the Ta'ang/Palaung National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army.

At present, Beijing can talk about the unilateral ceasefire declaration by the Kokang Army and the resolutions of the NCCT's recent conference in Law Khee Lar in Kayin State (formerly Karen State). China has been urging Myanmar to work for stability and peace in the Kokang region. Myanmar has to maintain stability in the country to prepare for the second general election in November. The ethnic armed groups have common platforms to bargain for inclusive political solutions and some groups invited China to play a constructive role in the peace process.

Speaking at the Law Khee Lar conference, the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) spokesman, N'Ban Hla expressed clearly that the MNDAA chief played a crucial role in reaching ceasefire pacts with Myanmar government in 1989. He alleged that the Myanmar government is treating the Kokang as if they do not belong to Myanmar. Going back to history, most of the ethnic armed groups came into existence after the break-up of the Burmese Communist Party (BCP) in 1989, when China under Deng Xiaoping changed its policy towards Myanmar for establishing a peaceful and friendly environment around China. In fact, some of the Myanmar leaders especially those in the armed forces fought hard battles against the BCP which was backed by the Chinese government for some time.

The Kokangs are ethnic Chinese people living in a strip of land called the Kokang Self-Administered Region under the 2008 Myanmar constitution. Their territory became part of Myanmar (then Burma) when the country was under the British colonial rule. If any anti-Chinese feeling is present among the Myanmar people, the Kokang Chinese could also become the target of hatred and ethnic profiling. However, Myanmar government cannot deny the fact that these people are legally citizens of the country like other ethnic minorities. In addition, Naypyitaw could not gain anything by annoying a powerful neighbour due to ill-treatment of the Kokang Chinese.

The NCCT, which was formed at the first Laiza Conference held in November 2013 in Kachin State, will play a crucial role in shaping the national reconciliation and reform in Myanmar. The Ethnic Armed Organisations' Summit statement at Law Khee Lar conference pointed towards some major amendments to the draft NCA and called for a political solution that is inclusive of all the ethnic groups. This conference that was held from 2 to 9 June 2015 in the Kayin State bordering Thailand, will decide the course of the NCA negotiations and stability along the China-Myanmar border.