'Never be emotional in days of crisis' - the Old Jungle Saying. Only that no Phantom is going to frantically jump out of the woods to save Manipur at one stroke in his own inimitable 'Indrajal Comic' Style. The 'jungle drumbeats' are too loud even for the deaf, but for the Central Govt. and the State Govt., it seems to be well below the audible decibel limits.

For the Central Government, the AFSP Act is its 'answer' to the insurgency problem in Manipur; for the armed Insurgent Groups, the Act is a stark symbol of 'Indian colonialism, de hors basic Human Rights'. For the Supreme Court of India, the AFSP Act is a 'special law' for a 'special circumstance', but for the people of Manipur, such 'special circumstances' have been prevailing too long and Manipur cannot be 'that special circumstance' for eternity and rightly so!

The solution may be equally difficult as the problem itself, but any solution that gives 'peace and development' a chance, without requiring the interested parties to move even an inch from their stated positions, should do wonders 'as of now'. The feasibility of such a solution will, however, require all the interested parties to realize some 'bitter truths', however painful and disturbing they might be. Indeed, it will pay more dividends to acknowledge our own 'blunders' and accordingly, take corrective steps at the appropriate time.

(A). The Central Government:-

The Central Govt. seems to be reluctant to remove the AFSP Act largely because of its apprehension of the proverbial Pandora's Box - chain reaction in other states of the North East and Jammu & Kashmir, army demoralization, possible flare-up in insurgency, a virtual surrender to the so-called insurgents etc. But such apprehensions alone cannot be the reason to make Manipur a virtual 'killing field', where anybody can be dragged out of his or her own house at the dead of the night, tortured right on the Varandah, only to be found 'without the soul' the morning after.

Rather than taking a simplistic view, the Central Government needs to take the Bull on its horn, but only after acknowledging some bitter truths:-

I. The root of the present crisis is not the AFSP Act alone and was not born just yesterday; it indeed has its own historical roots - inter alia, the controversial forced merger of Manipur, the Kabow Valley fiasco, resultant Manipuri people's sense of exploitation and discrimination etc.

II. The present crisis is just a 'tip of the iceberg', a cumulative outburst of the people's long suppressed frustration and anger, a pointer to another or bigger 'Kashmir in the making'.

III. The AFSP Act has had its sway since 1980 (24 years), but still insurgency prevails and hence, by every tenet of logic and presumption, the AFSP Act has become 'more of a reason less of a solution' for Insurgency in Manipur.

IV. The ASFP Act, if not removed in time, will ultimately help the cause of the armed Insurgent Groups in Manipur by further invoking popular public anger against the Central Government.

V. As demonstrated during the recent Anti-Ceasefire Extension agitation, the Manipuris are not going to be bogged down so easily and hence, either 'partial withdrawal' of the AFSP Act or 'withdrawal of the Assam Rifles' from Manipur alone is not likely to break the ice.

VI. A military solution with Acts like the AFSP Act is totally unthinkable for Manipur and hence, the need to win over the 'hearts and minds' of the Manipuris, inter alia, by introducing appropriate Constitutional Amendments and developmental packages; creation of DONER and Tax incentives alone have proved to be inadequate. The issue is too sensitive for the AFSP Act to serve as the proverbial magic wand for Manipur - a land with its own independent history, different ancestral stock, different culture, different language and hence, the Indian Government needs to be extra sensitive.

VII. Heavens won't fall if the AFSP Act is removed since the Armed Forces can still operate as effectively as before without the Act also and thus, the removal of AFSP Act will not at all mean that the Indian Military has to bid a final goodbye to Manipur.

VIII. There are other Statutes like the NSA, the IPC, the Arms Act etc., which have provisions effective enough to enable the Indian Armed Forces to check the so-called armed rebellion in this part of the World.

Thus, for the Central Government, it would make better diplomacy and much better governance to remove the AFSP Act from the entire state immediately at least on an experimental basis and throw the Ball to the People's Court - 'we have done our bit; now, show us how you tackle the other side (read insurgents)'?. The bottom line is that if at all the Indian Government does not want to lose Manipur, the present agitation should act a wake up call to save the present limited public anger from degenerating itself to a full fledged popular 'freedom struggle'. Already, we have had the ban on Indian Films and Indian made goods, which is well indicative of the bigger danger that lies ahead.

(B). The State Government:-

The State Govt. seems to be caught between the Scylla of Article 356 and the Charybdis of "waning public support'. The State Government is clearly under the Central Government's threat of possible President's Rule in the event of any second time offence of defying the Center's Advice on the issue of complete AFSP Act removal (first offence being partial withdrawal from Imphal in defiance of the advice of the Central Government, if Shivraj Patil's statement in the Indian Parliament is to be believed).

While the predicament of the Damocles' Article 356 hanging over its head is well understood, it will definitely make better politics for Ibobi and his Brigade to go by the public sentiment this time at least, instead of listening to the Center. One, falling in line with the dictates of the Central Government on the issue of not removing the AFSP Act might at the most ensure survival of the Ibobi Govt. for the time being, but surely, it would be counter-productive in the long run as the same will ensure complete electoral rout for Ibobi in the next round of elections. Two, total removal of the Act will not only make a Hero of Ibobi but also send a strong message to the Center - 'enough is enough, do whatever you want'. Three, this time, the dissent within the Government and the State Assembly is too strong for Ibobi to wither the storm and hence, there is every possibility of the present Government being pulled down by popular demand once it becomes evident that the AFSP Act will never be completely removed. The choice is Ibobi's - removal by the Center OR removal by the people of Manipur! Fourth, every political party or coalition of parties in Manipur should know that the Central Government will never want President's Rule to stay on in Manipur for too long as it will emit a different impression ('forced rule without local support') to the rest of the World and hence, the political parties in Manipur need not worry much about absence of elected State Government in Manipur for too long. It's a part of the Center's power-play and let's play it as per our requirements and in our own style. The holding of elections in Kashmir and the installation of the Mufti Mohammad Government, when Kashmir was at the height of militancy, confirms this position.

The immediate need for the State Government should be to convince the Central Govt. to remove the Act from the entire state with a statutory warning 'if you don't do it now, we will do it ourselves, as we have done it earlier (read 'partial withdrawal)'. At the most, the State Government may be sacked and President's Rule imposed, but again that's much better than being unceremoniously sacked by the people of Manipur. In any eventuality, there is every possibility of the Ibobi Govt. being sacked either by the Central Government or the people of Manipur (MLAs or by further extension, the people in general) and hence, Ibobi's choice should clearly be the later since this would indeed give a strong message ('we don't take things lying down') to the Central Government, ensure removal of the AFSP Act, albeit for a short duration.

(C) The Armed Insurgent Groups:-

It has always been the allegation of the Central Government and even the State Government that the armed Insurgent Groups in Manipur are behind the present protests and rallies and though this line of thinking may not be completely true, I at least subscribe to one statement that at least some of our Clubs and Organizations are acting as frontal organizations of some Insurgent groups. While the so-called Insurgent groups pursue their own objectives, they should also realize, inter alia, their own share of 'bitter truths as well:-

I. The present law and order problem in Manipur might be largely the cumulative effect of a constant antagonism between Manipuri Nationalism and Indian Nationalism and arguably, our insurgent groups may well have some good valid reasons (historical or otherwise) to feel aggrieved against India as a nation. Nevertheless, the Insurgent Groups should always remember that 'Means are as important as the End' and their means (forced taxes, contract works on commission basis, forced donations, its own 'law' enforcement system etc.) are diluting their 'Ends' or sooner or later, 'their means' may ultimately destroy their 'objective(s)', howsoever good it/they may be, if they don't mend their ways immediately. The Insurgents themselves have rendered their 'concept of 'Independence' a much debatable issue or many a times, a much 'Non-Acceptable' proposition largely because of the means adopted by the Insurgent Groups, with such sarcastic questions thrown around - "if they are doing like this now, what would be Manipur's fate after the so-called independence?".

II. The present agitation does not at all absolve the armed Insurgent Groups from being the main reason for the AFSP Act; only that people are too terrified to direct their ire against the Insurgent Groups. Coercion will not work and let's not turn 'development issues' into non-issues in this whole milieu.

III. The World has changed after September 11, 2001 and time has come when anyone with a gun is branded a 'terrorist', a possible target of the so-called Bush's 'War against Terror'. Indeed, there are gentler and yet equally or even more effective ways of making our grievances known to the outside world without disturbing the 'development process', as His Holiness Dalai Lama has demonstrated. For the so-called independence of Manipur, we are not the 'then East Pakistan' for another India to come to our rescue, another 'Falkland Islands' for another UK to rush or for that matter 'another Kashmir' for another Pakistan to get involved. But who knows, a time may come when the right to self Determination becomes a practical reality, but till then, it would make more practical sense to carry on our objectives through the language of diplomacy, without making our people starve, without making our people unemployed, without making our state another 'killing field'. Let's give 'development and progress' our top priority.

IV. Nobody listens to the poor and the same cardinal principle applies to International politics as well and hence, making Manipur a business hub might very well serve the purpose of the Insurgent Groups as well. Anything, howsoever small, that happens in Hong Kong or Singapore is a news for the whole world to take serious note - thanks to their established positions as giant economies and Asian Business hubs all over the World and hence, let's us first make Manipur a strong economy so that our grievances enjoy unflinching audience.

V. Though I have seen various propaganda materials of the Insurgent Groups, I am yet to come across any vision statement of the so-called post Independent Manipur - their vision of self reliance, their vision of a vibrant Manipur economy, their vision of export-import trade, their vision of governance and hence, it would make better sense for our armed Insurgent Groups to convince the people of Manipur with their own vision of a vibrant Manipur.

VI. The objectives of the Insurgent Groups may be better served if they cease to associate themselves with the present law and order problem in Manipur and by further extension, be 'a reason' for the AFSP Act and instead indulge in constructive developmental activities - a campaign of conviction, trust and faith. Let's remember that even if the AFSP Act is removed, the Indian Government will surely come up with another Act under another name (old wine in the new bottle) if our precarious law and order problem still continues.

VII. The Armed Insurgent Groups should never be under the illusion that they are only ones who think and worry about Manipur and its future. There are indeed other Manipuries who are patriotic and concerned about Manipur as much as our Insurgent Groups are, but without wielding any arms.

Though I have spent half of my life outside Manipur, I myself have had my own bitter first-hand experience of 'having gone' to my School in Manipur with a completely empty stomach many a times, have seen many Manipuri students waiting for their monthly 'disbursement' for months, but surviving somehow and have witnessed instances of severe economic tragedies faced by many Manipuri friends and acquaintances - all because of stark poverty and mass unemployment. Hence, what is more important now - tackling stark poverty OR pursuing an objective, howsoever genuine and good it may be, through means that creates the former?

(D) The Voluntary Organizations and Meira Paibies:-

So far so good as far as the AFSP Act is concerned. Indeed, some extra-ordinary performances in many instances and we have every reason to be proud. But, I do have some serious reservations and suggestions on the over-all activities of our voluntary organizations:-

I. The credibility of our Local Clubs, Students' Associations, Human Rights Groups and Meira Paibies is largely dented because of a common perception (rightly or wrongly) that such bodies act as the frontal organizations of the so-called insurgent groups in Manipur. Such an impression has been created since our pressure goups are mostly visible only when the issues are directed against the Central Government, may it be extra judicial killings, ceasefire extension etc. This is one area where our voluntary organizations need to really work on and perhaps, condemning the Insurgent Groups as well for their violent activities may go a long way in dispelling such a 'tainted image'.

II. Why should we have 32 organization in such a small state? Is it symbolic of 'diversity in unity' or 'unity in diversity'? At the most, we can have one Students' Organization, one Human Rights Group, one Organization representing all the Local clubs, one Meira Paibi Organization.

III. Our voluntary organizations should take up development issues as well and now, time has come for them to organize mammoth rallies and seminars on developmental issues like the issue of local industry having been destroyed by the 'Moreh' business, the issue of exporting our 'Chak-hao', our local handloom and handicraft products, our bamboo and cane products, the issue of more central industrial aid, grants etc.

IV. Our Voluntary Organizations should realize that internally, our whole governance system has more less collapsed and hence, it's a high time for them to introspect and clean up the whole system. It may be much wiser to raid the corrupt Ministers' houses, instead of raiding the much gullible restaurants, ensure transparency in the recruitments for government services, make sure that the best of candidates get elected without bribing any of us.

V. We do have very novel ways of protests and demonstrations. I salute my 'Mothers' who had to resort to one 'Novel' way of expressing their anger one fine day; I salute Late Mr. Pebam Chittaranjan for his sheer guts to die for a cause he had immense belief in and I admire the iron will of Ms. Irom Sharmila Chanu for a social cause so close to her heart. Without any shred of doubt, we have hundreds of men and women like Ms. Memita, who have the sagacity and ultimate commitment to sacrifice even the precious life for Manipur's cause. The rest of India and the National and International Media watch in utter 'Shock and Awe' - Manipur growling in pain, but unfailingly living up to her aged old valiant image - a land which had once fought the mighty British Empire, a people who once forced a country as big as India to back off from a Treaty already signed with a Third party (the NSCN).

But, had some of such protests been held in the nerve center of India - Delhi, we could have garnered much more publicity and attention - both National and International on the same AFSP Act issue!! Let's do some pragmatic thinking for more novel ways.

The above are just some of passing thoughts, which may be relevant to the present agitation on the AFSP Act issue. Indeed, the only class of people who seem to be caught in the cross-fire is the common man who wants a decent life, who wants his salary on time, who wants his sons and daughters to get a peaceful atmosphere for quality education, who wants to go to the nearest theatre for the latest Hollywood flicks, who wants to take out his or her whole family for a joy-ride down the Kangla-Pat road or a Boat-ride at the Loktak Lake and who wants to get rid of all 'Fear Elements'. Unfortunately, such thoughts still remain a wishful thinking - an 'El Dorado'. But let me assure you that such an 'El Dorado' will indeed become a visible reality only when every one of us - the Armed Insurgent Groups, the Voluntary Organizations, the Meira Paibis, the State Government, the Local Media in Manipur - give 'development' the top priority while pursuing our own objectives in life and indeed, in such a scenario, the AFSP Act will surely become a 'phenomenon of the past' and together we can do it - my beloved brothers and sisters.