Drastic reduction in various militant-related incidences : No need for AFSPA

Dr. Th. Suresh Singh *

Protest demanding repeal of AFSPA at Jantar Mantar, New Delhi on 22 December 2014 :: Pix - Seram Rojesh/

A) Research study by the petitioner in respect of Militant-related incidences occurred in Manipur during the year 2014.

AFSPA area     non-AFSPA area     total     %of total
Remaining     near non-AFSPA
area     area
(nos.)     (nos.)     (nos.)     (nos.)     (nos.)
1.Various incidences
240(58.1%)     59 (14.3%)     114(27.6%)     413     100

2.Capture of militants
a)129(55.8%)     39(16.9%)     63(27.3%)     231     55.9
b)By police-128,     by army-40,     by combine-63
(55.4%)     (17.3%)     (27.3%)

3.Bomb implant
29(46%)     8(12.7%)     26(41.3%)     63     15.3

4.Bomb blast
27(40.3%)     10(14.9%)     30(44.8%)     67     16.2

5.Various gun battle/attacks     25     6.1
a)Between militant & force
12(100%)     0(0%)     12
b)By militant to central/state force
8(88.9%)     1(11.1%)     9
c)Between militants
4(100%)     0(0%)     4

6. Operation by combined force
1(100%)     0(0%)     1     0.2

7. Gun shooting threat/ incident
17(94.4%)     1(5.6%)     18     4.4
Injury – 11 nos,     death – 7 nos.

8.Capture by militants
7(87.5%)     1(12.5%)     8     1.9

Inference : ( fraction of percentages is not counted )

1. Incidences – 42% occur in non-AFSPA and its surrounding areas thereby showing that the area is functioning normally without AFSPA.

2. Capture of militants :

i) 44% occur in non-AFSPA and its surrounding areas.
ii) State force is involved in 83% (55.4% alone & another 27.3% combined with central forces).
It shows the state force is quite capable and can handle the situation without the Army and AFSPA.

3. Encounter between Militants & Forces –
i) Only 12 actual encounters took place during the whole year, all in AFSPA area. 9 took place in border area and 3 in non-border area.
ii) Another 9 UG attacks to central/ state forces took place - 8 in AFSPA area and 1 in non-AFSPA area. 5 took place in border area and 4 in non-border area.
The two, along with Army operation constitute a meager 5% of the total incidence. Hence it shows irrelevance of AFSPA and its out of tune in the present situation.

4. Bomb implant & blast - about 42% of each occur in non-AFSPA area.
The two constitute 32% of the total incidences.

5. Threat/distortion by gun shooting constitutes 4% of total incidences.

6. Capture by militants constitutes 2% of total incidences.

7. Only 1 operation by combined forces of state police and Army took place during the whole year, that’s too at NSCN(IM) camp at Phangritang village, after the killing of Ukhrul ADC member Ng. Malui in July 2014.

8. Almost all the incidences, i.e. about 94% are related to Law and Order problems - capture of militants, distortion threats/blasts and inter-related problems. These can be handled competently by the state police as shown by these study findings.

9. The average incidence per day is only 1.13

10. In spite of many incidences, the non-AFSPA area is alive and kicking for the last 10 years clearly shows that AFSPA is not needed at all in Manipur.

11. There is no fake encounter in 2014.

B) Comparing the 3 studied years i.e. 2012, 2013 and 2014, major important findings are :

1.The incidence per day is more or less stabilised i.e 1.08 in 2013 and 1.13 in 2014. This is a decrease by almost 50% from 2 in 2012.

2. 42-47% of the incidences occur in non-AFSPA and its surrounding areas : 51.5% in 2012, 47% in 2013 and 42% in 2014. It shows that these areas are functioning normally without AFSPA.

3. Involvement of state police force in capture of militants is also more or less stabilised i.e 87% in 2013 and 83% in 2014 . This is an increase of about 5 to 9% from 78% in 2012.

4. There is a steady decline of encounter between militants and forces and, attack by militants : < 10% in 2012 to < 7% in 2013 to 5% in 2014 of the total incidence.

5. Majority of encounters between the Army and the Militants took place in the Indo-Burma border area.

6. 90-94% of the incidences are related to law and order problems : 90% in 2012, 93% in 2013 and 94 % in 2014 and that the state police can handle this effectively is shown by this study findings.

7. In spite of many incidences, the non-AFSPA area is alive and kicking for the last 10 years clearly shows that AFSPA is not needed at all in Manipur.

8. There is no fake encounter in 2013 and 2014. i.e. since the hearing of this writ at the Hon’ble Apex Court. It clearly indicates that the Apex Court’s intervention is a must.