Diverging policies and consequences in Manipur

Bhavananda Mayengbam *

A local problem can be one of the effects of a problem existed somewhere else far and unseen or too near to notice. The solution to resolve and mitigate the problem lies in identification of the cause and separation between cause and its various effects.

Identification of cause not only helps in eradication of all effects but also helps in finding the solutions to solve the problem. The evaluation not only helps in identification of failure but also enables in finding the public opinion effected by a policy and take corrective measures in the subsequent new policy formation.

Apart from other socio-economic developments in NE region, one of the big-ticket projects is the Sittwe port in Rakhine province of Myanmar and an economic corridor between Sittwe and Aizawl, Mizoram, India, (started in 2016) under the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit and Transport Project (KMMTTP) with an estimated cost of 484 million dollar.

This project is of strategic importance to India as it will provide an access to land locked NE region to Bay of Bengal, improve trade between Kolkata port and Sittwe port, and enhance India’s maritime reach in the region.

Further, the population along the KMMTTP corridor in Myanmar side are Rakhine and Chin groups. The eight major communities in Myanmar are Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Myanmar, Mon, Rakhine and Shan. According to the 2014 Myanmar Census, the population of Chin State is around 4.8 lakh out of which 85.4% are Christians, 13% are Buddhists and remaining are other minority religious communities.

As the Chin communities reside on both sides of the porous international border along Manipur and Mizoram, high influx including top chin leaders from Chin province was reported in Mizoram and adjoining States following military actions in Myanmar. Subsequently, some border States of India are providing shelter unofficially.

Official admittance of the influx by GOI will affect public opinion of many communities in affected States at home; and the India Myanmar relations, which is already sensitive due to Myanmar’s affinity with China and the development of Kyaukpyu port in Rakhine State, Myanmar, which is located just 105 Km south of Sittwe port. Started in 2020, Kyaukpyu port will provide China trade and maritime access to Bay of Bengal under China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).

On the other hand, sheltering the displaced group could be a larger agenda to balance the Chinese influence in the region. Nevertheless, it is a dilemma for India and too delicate an issue to miscalculate and mishandle; any wrong step will have multiple consequences which will be hard to overcome.

High infiltration in Manipur and adjoining States and providing refuge following military actions in Myanmar may provide certain opportunities on larger geo-political context, however it also provides considerable demographic strength to a particular community and threat to other communities thereby creating an asymmetry.

Various indicators show that increase of drug issues, poppy plantation, forestland, arms, cartels and funds are all related and sub-effects of the above influx. The local Government’s policy of cracking down on poppy cultivation, eviction of encroachers on reserved forests, and ‘war against drug’ creates a ‘conflict of interest’ between the larger agenda and the State’s policy.

However, this ‘conflict of interest’ created an opportunity to choreograph the 3rd May, 2023 rally against a non-related issue (ST issue) and subsequent violence with snowball effects.

Failure to identify the choreographers and distinguish them from the mass, or missing out the ‘conflict of interests’ was the intelligence failure and furthermore, delay in taking corrective measures for asymmetry will further create more internal security problems and social unrest.

The Government of India is aware of the demographic asymmetry, thereupon, policy and strategies adopted should avoid overlaps of diverging policies and include the right corrective measures, right policy instruments, analysis of possible geo-political consequences to avoid such situations at home, conceding a self-goal.

The GOI should not keep the status quo for long. The back-channel talks should continue to provide a conducive atmosphere for peace dialogues. All indicators should be neutral and fair, any wrong indication at ground will derail the peace process and status quo will be prolonged.