Dance of democracy, a miracle in the making !

Shivaji Sarkar *

The nation wants to know who is forming the government even as the country barges into the fifth phase when voting for over 350 seats would have been completed.

Many say the BJP would come back as a whopping 85 percent of the Indian population, the highest in the world, likes authoritarian rule, according to Pew Research. So, the trillion-rupee question is whether the Modi government is coming back?

Yet on the ground there appears to be almost an equal number of enthusiasts who say “badlao dikh raha hai”, and opposition INDIA alliance is likely to hold the reins as they perceive that people are eager to have a new set of leaders with a new governance style, so that they can breathe with ease.

What makes the elections more interesting, and a tad uncertain is that this time they are playing out differently in each different state. But a common factor is emerging in the North and West.

It is manifesting in a kind of unrest among some caste groups led by Kshatriyas and Rajputs in the BJP against its own leaders. This has adversely affected quite a few seats in favour of Congress in Gujarat, at least half of Rajasthan and most parts of UP. The Congress is said to have done well in all these seats.

To say the least, it is not easy for the BJP. Most worrying for the party and its leadership is that its cadre has not come out to campaign. In such a situation, how would it get the 400 seats announced by the prime minister? The cadre is its army that brings the voters out, guides and cajole, if not pressurise, to vote.

In the absence of the cadre, can the BJP romp home? Not many seem to have an answer to this poser.

Everyone seems to be drowned in the myth of ‘400 paar’. A psyche has been created may be a bit less or still less, but chances are that the BJP would form the government. But let us examine if this is even possible?

One aspect that is missed is that as per Pew research, 22 percent are influenced by the Ram temple in different states, and such votes would be cast for BJP. The Modi magic or guarantee has also not lost its charm.

But the BJP was taken unaware of the Congress masterstroke at Rae Bareli-Amethi. It was beyond their imagination that Gandhi family loyalists would shake up Amethi and treat Rahul Gandhi treat Rae Bareli as cakewalk.

The INDIA has cobbled up an alliance countrywide. They are working in tandem, post-Arvind Kejriwal arrest, as if electrified by the suddenness of a second chief minister being arrested, in alleged liquor scandal that Aam Aadmi Party says was all trumped up to incarcerate its four top leaders so that it cannot campaign and contest the elections effectively.

His release on temporary bail has enthused the opposition parties even more. They are going together campaigning at different places to put the viewpoints against an “authoritarian” regime.

Voting figures are no less wonder. In many states, ruled by the BJP, the turn-out is amongst the lowest. Worst has been at Ghaziabad in UP. Women voters were conspicuous by their absence in most of western UP. Ghaziabad and Sahibabad recorded the lowest women turnout in the country. Women for some years are said to have been voting for BJP. The BJP is at a plateau in 11 states and has no chance of improving its tally.

The BJP can only lose or with great efforts cling to the previous numbers, again not so simple as anti-incumbency is palpable, its record of parliamentary proceedings, expelling 146 members, misbehaving with minority member Danish Ali in the House, ill-treating and calling Mohua Moitra of TMC names, locking of Congress party funds - all have not been taken kindly.

Various amendments like Bharata Nyaya Samhita, which have received Supreme Court strictures, on press freedom and others have evoked negative sentiments. Logically those moved by the above events may not have supported the BJP. Could they have voted for INDIA? Most say that they might have.

In Karnataka, INDIA is likely to get at least 17 as per the figures of assembly constituencies it won. Telangana is likely to repeat the assembly performance. The BJP may lose one or two of the four seats it had won in 2019. Maharashtra is no more a cakewalk with the Maratha sentiments rising against “vishwasghat” (treachery) and sympathy for Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thakre) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) swelling.

Punjab is a state where the BJP does not matter at all as AAP and Congress are engaged in a friendly but fierce battle. Jammu & Kashmir with three seats left uncontested by the BJP, it’s a matter of only two seats. The sixth seat of erstwhile Ladakh, now UT, may not go to BJP.

If these are the trends and it is assumed that many even in Northern India have voted against the BJP, it should not be in a comfortable position. In western UP’s Kairana, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Unnao, Kannauj and many other constituencies internecine troubles within the BJP are said to have caused damage to it, despite an alliance with Jayant Chaudhury’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, which may have fared well in one seat in Bijnor. The Samajwadi Party is said to have scored in many places with its ally Congress. It is to be seen how the balance tilts.

In all these areas, it was observed that the BJP core cadre that had been managing polls in previous elections was absent. No one is sure how that would impact the polling. The BSP factor may help in some seats. Overall, the BJP tally may be far less than what is claimed. It varies from 170-230.

India alliance is to have a major tally from Tamilnadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab, a few seats from Gujarat, J&K. Rajasthan and an unknown tally of 15 to 30 from UP. The contest is keen in Himachal. The total for INDIA varies from 220-250.

Finally, there is a catch. If one alliance is losing and the other is supposed to gain, past experiences show a swing happens. The electorate do not cast votes with that kind of precision. When one loses the figures go on plummeting. Similarly, the gainer is also showered with the unprecedented bounty. That magic remains hidden in the box that is to be opened on June 4. A miracle is not impossible.