Chinese flavour : Peace 'may not' get a chance to work for Solution in Nagaland

Nirendra Dev *

This is one of the most perilous periods in international history. There's something big happening everywhere -- China, Ukraine, Indo Pacific and of course Britain where the Prime Minister Liz Truss had the shortest stint ever in history.

On the last day of Communists Party Congress in China on Saturday, Oct 22, former President Hu Jintao, was 'removed' unceremoniously and by force by so-called 'unnamed Chinese communist agents'. Xi Jinping also achieved the record three-year term.

Both China and the Chinese communists have many admirers in India and also in the northeast closer home as well. To them New Delhi 'could not be trusted' but Xi Jinping's polity should be applauded.

China is that country which has seen almost 30 years of 9 and 10 percent average growth even till fiscal 2016-17.

This was surely an unprecedented performance by any country at the global stage. Importantly, during this period, around 50 per cent of global growth came from China and India was by default and otherwise part of the beneficiary list.

The drop in Chinese growth rate had impacted global trade and commerce too. In fact, the global trade shrunk as a result of the negative impact on China's own growth graph. At one time even India benefited and the country's global trade was growing at an average of seven percent a year. The politics of China and also the other global challenges make a lot of sense even in the neighbourhood.

It would impact now and it impacted regional politics even in the past. In the context of northeast India, Mon and Tuensang were the battlefields of various ultra groups. In the eighties, Indian security force reports used to suggest that communist China's help and logistic support was crucial at least for one camp Even the church lobby was unhappy.

One such internal security analysis had said that the league of western Christian countries led by the US and the United Kingdom were bemused while the Indian jawanas reportedly watched from a distance what they called a snake-mongoose fight.

But enough water has flown in river Dhansiri since then. "Christ' and his principles and values are now a public pledge. However, it is altogether a different chapter that violence and threats pursue at different levels.

According to the annual report of the Ministry of Home Affairs, 2020, incidents of insurgency in six out of eight northeastern states declined by 80 percent since 2014 and civilian deaths were down by 99 percent. The year 2020 also had recorded the lowest insurgency incidents and casualties among civilians and security forces in the last decades. This was the year of the Galwan valley conflict nevertheless.

But around September 2020, in a retort to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement aimed at China that “the era of expansionism is over,” the rebels also had issued a joint statement saying “as the entire world has made up its mind against expansionism, the people of West Southeast Asia are also countering the expansionism of India".

One must study these statements based on the availability of Chinese-made arms in the Northeast. In 2020 when it was realised at the Government of India level that the Naga peace talks have been stalled, as expected the apprehension was Chinese hands.

On September 18, 2020, there was a clear setback to all efforts for reconciliation as the NSCN(IM) issued a statement from its headquarters saying a separate Naga flag and constitution "must form a part of the Indo-Naga political solution".

Given the contest, one source had said even during the UPA regime in 2011-12, Chinese agents including a woman posing as a TV journalist reportedly visited the headquarters of the NSCN-IM near Dimapur and held a three-hour-long meeting with top NSCN-IM leaders.

On Sept 28, 2022, NSCN-IM issued a statement alleging that the Govt of India has "hindered" the peace parleys. It also said, "therefore there is an imperative need for third party intervention" in Naga talks.

The government of India has taken a jaundiced view that such things are happening notwithstanding years of talks and signing of Framework Agreement and also the Agreed Position.