An exercise in crystal ball gazing : Leadership deficit
- Sangai Express Editorial :: October 09, 2013 -

At the risk of indulging in a bit of crystal ball gazing exercise, four possible scenarios may be envisaged at this particular point of time next year.

If the principal Opposition party, that is the BJP, is successful in turning the 'nonsense' outburst from Rahul into an electoral issue and translate this into votes, votes for themselves and its allies, then the country may see Narendra Modi heading a new coalition Government as the Prime Minister.

If on the other hand, the BJP's strategy of trying to capitalise on the 'nonsense' outburst fails to hit home and the Congress emerges as the single largest party, then India may well see a Gandhi occupying the high office of Prime Minister after more than 20 years.

This is the second possible scenario. The third scenario, which cannot be written off with a wave of the hand, is the continuation of the genial Dr Manmohan Singh in office for the third consecutive term.

Not to be written off that easily too is the fourth scenario, the Third Front as espoused by Mulayam Singh Yadav. These are all conjectures at the moment, but the common denominator that runs through all these possible scenarios is unmistakable.

Leadership deficit. The highly articulate and no nonsense Karan Thapar has already spoken out his mind that neither Rahul Gandhi nor Narendra Modi deserve to be the Prime Minister of the largest democracy in the world.

The premise of his argument is based on the outburst of the Gandhi scion, which the BJP and many others had interpreted as belittling the chair of the Prime Minister as well as riding rough shod over the Union Cabinet.

As for Narendra Modi, Mr Thapar has made it more than clear that a man who relies on hearsay to go hammer and tongs against the Prime Minister of the country, especially when he is away meeting the President of the United States as well as the premier of Pakistan, does not deserve to become the Prime Minister of the country.

The question of whether the public will lap up Mr Thapar's argument and point lies in the realm of speculation, but already some important points have been delivered and that too forcefully and with conviction.

With Rahul Gandhi shooting himself on his foot and with Narendra Modi seen as a polarising factor, the wait and see strategy adopted by the Third Front, courtesy Mulayam Singh Yadav will be interesting.

There are major players in the proposed Third Front, which cannot be dismissed that easily. Trinamool Congress aka Mamta Banerjee, the JD (U) under Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh at the helm of the Samajwadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal headed by Naveen Patnaik, the DMK and AIADMK and the Left Front are all forces which can derail the projected battle between the Congress and the BJP or between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.

With coalition Governments becoming the order of the day, the shape and face of the next Government will depend to a large extent on how these parties decide to play their cards and it is this which Mulayam Singh is banking on, when he talks about the Third Front.

It is early days yet and the pollsters are yet to sit down and read the tea leaves but one or two of the possible scenarios spelt out may become a distinct reality.

The worrying point, however at the moment, is the seeming lack of any tangible issues around which the voters can rally.

Corruption is a hot topic at the moment, but with some of the Lalus and Masoods cooling their heels behind bars, an impression, a false one at that, may be created that corruption has been addressed to.

The danger of the din and ruckus kicked up by the 'nonsense' remarks from Rahul Gandhi silencing other issues, such as the economy and India's foreign policy is a possibility which should not be overlooked.