Myanmar on tightrope toward democracy

By Nehginpao Kipgen *

Last year saw a decisive moment in Myanmar's political history. A series of democratic reforms were implemented. The convening of a new parliament marked the end of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the party of the military junta since 1997, and gave rise to the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Significant political developments included reconciliation between the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the military-backed government, successful lobbying for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 2014 chairmanship, a visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and ceasefire agreements with armed ethnic groups.

This year began with the signing of a ceasefire agreement with the oldest armed ethnic organization in the country, the Karen National Union (KNU) and its armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army, on January 12.

The KNU, which began its armed operation in 1949, has been the symbol of ethnic minorities' movement in the country.

The other important development was the release of political prisoners on January 13, which included prominent democracy activists. The release of political prisoners has been one fundamental demand of Western nations before they would normalize relations with the former pariah state.

A series of democratic reforms in 2011 and its continuation in 2012 give optimism to many political observers and governments around the world. The bigger question is whether the ongoing trend of reforms can bring a durable peace and stability to the country.

The atmosphere of optimism is boosted by the international community's desire to embrace Myanmar if it continues to walk the path of democratization. For over two decades, the US and Great Britain have been two of the fiercest critics of the Myanmar government.

However, these two countries were the first Western major powers to send their chief diplomats to visit the reclusive country in more than half a century.

Despite a wave of positive developments, it is premature to conclude that the reform is irreversible. The political changes can be attributed to the Myanmar leadership's search for legitimacy and recognition. In the midst of domestic and international pressures, the Myanmar government wanted to build credibility by assuming the role of ASEAN chair in 2014.

By doing so, the Myanmar government plans to improve its international image and eventually convince the Western democracies to lift sanctions.

While the political reconciliation between the NLD and the USDP-led government was crucial, the more significant issue was the government reaching out to armed ethnic groups for political dialogue, which remains the crux of Myanmar's decades-old political problems.

Although a civilian government has been installed, the military still retains the ultimate power.

One vivid piece of evidence was a communiqué from the country's President Thein Sein to halt the military offenses against the armed Kachin Independence Army on December 10 last year, but the military continues to engage in armed attacks.

The recent changes emerged only after the military had successfully entrenched its power base. The 2008 Constitution reserves 25 percent of parliament seats for the military, and the current government is overwhelmingly dominated by former generals and their friends. The military will not hesitate to intervene if its power or control of the government is threatened.

Peace and stability do not depend on how many ceasefire agreements have been signed between the government and armed ethnic minority groups, but rather how these agreements will be implemented and sustained.

This is contingent upon how much the central government is willing to delegate powers to ethnic territories and the extent to which the minorities are ready to cooperate.

Despite recent positive developments, the democratization process has the probability of either reversing back to military dictatorship or another form of authoritarian regime.

However, if there is mutual participation and cooperation, the ongoing democratic reforms have the potential of a successful national reconciliation for all the people of Myanmar.

The article was first published in Global Times,

Nehginpao Kipgen

* Nehginpao Kipgen is a political analyst and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). His works have been widely published in five continents - Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America. He can be reached at nehginpao(at)gmail(dot)com. This article was webcasted on February 05, 2012.