Research study : Why AFSPA is not needed
- Part 2 -

Dr Th Suresh *

Repeal Armed Forces Special Power Act 1958, (AFSPA) Protest at Pune on May 24 2011
Pix : Human Right and Law Defender (HRLD) Pune

Sum total of Research Study in respect of encounter deaths, bomb blasts, hand grenade attacks, gun shooting, captures and other unwanted incidents occurred in the state of Manipur for the year 2012. The Research is based on daily publication reports of two Manipuri leading dailies i.e. Huyen Lanpao & Sangai Express.

1. Total no. of incidence :- Of the total 719 incidences – 72.6% (522 nos.) occur in AFSPA area and the remaining 27.4% (197 nos.) took place in non-AFSPA area. Out of the 522 AFSPA incidences 116 (16.1%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That means 43.4% (313 nos.) took place in or around non-AFSPA area.

2. Capture of militants incidence : of the total 331 incidences – 69% (228 nos.) are in AFSPA area whereas 31% (103 nos.) are in non-AFSPA area. Of the total 228 in AFSPA area – 48 (14.5%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That means 45.5% of capture took place in or around non-AFSPA area.

Of this 331 capture – 55.6% (184 nos.) is by the State Police, 22.7% (75 nos.) is by the combine force of State + Centre and the remaining 21.7% (72 nos.) is by Central force alone.

3. Bomb Imphal incidence : Of the total 84 – 63% (53 nos.) took place in AFSPA area and the remaining 37% (31 nos.) took place in non-AFSPA are. Of the total 53 in AFSPA are – 14 (16.6%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That is, a total of 53.6% of implant took place in or around non-AFSPA area.

4. Bomb blast incidence : There are a total of 174 bomb blast incidences. Out of this – 71.3% (124 nos.) are in AFSPA area and the remaining 28.7% (50 nos.) are in non-AFSPA area. Of the total 124 in AFSPA area – 38 (21.8%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That means, a total of 50.5% blast took place in or around non-AFSPA area.

5. Shooting incidence : Of the total 31 – 90.3% (28 nos.) took place in AFSPA area and the remaining 9.7% (3 nos.) took place in non-AFSPA area. Of the total 28 in AFSPA area – 2 (6.5%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That is, a total of 16.2% took place in and around non-AFSPA area.

6. Ransom demands/capture by UG/killed by unidentified : During the whole year – there are only 1 ransom demand (AFSPA area), 1 capture by UG (non-AFSPA area) and 1 killed by unidentified person (AFSPA area).

7. Rescue by police : There are only 2 rescue by the police during the whole year (1 in AFSPA, 1 around non-AFSPA area (i.e. both is AFSPA area).

8. Attack between UG/by the UG/between UG & Force: N.B. i) UG death also includes fake/suspected fake encounters

ii) Fake encounter means as claimed by the family / relative.

This is the most difficult part in the analysis of the research study. Of the total 78 incidence – 10% (8 nos.) is between UGs, 40% (31 nos.) is by UGs and remaining 50% ( 39 nos.) between UGs forces.

a) Between UG – 8 incidences occur, all in hills i.e. AFSPA are, 7 occur in Tamenglong district and 1 in Ukhrul. 14 persons died during the fight (13 UGs, 1 civilian) and there was no injury. Of the 8 incidence – NSCN (IM) is involved in 6 incidence, NSCN(K) & ZDUF in 4/4 incidences respectively.

b) By UG : Of the total 31 incidence- 83.9% ( 26 nos.) took place in AFSPA area and the remaining 16.1% ( 5 nos.) took place in non-AFSPA area. Of the 26 AFSPA area – 5(16.1%) are around non-AFSPA area. That means a total of 32.2% incidence took place in or around non-AFSPA area.

Further analysis shows death of 8 Central force personnel. A total of 43 persons were injured – 20 central force, 7 state force and 16 civilians.

c) Between UGs force: 39 incidences took place. Of this – 30.8% (12 nos.) are actual encounters, 20.5% (8 nos.) are fake encounter as claimed by their families/relatives and the remaining 48.7% (19 nos.) are other encounters including suspected fake ones.

Of this – 25.6% (10 nos.) occur in the hills and 71.4% (19 nos.) occur in the valley.

Further analysis shows 92.3% (36 nos.) took place in AFSPA area and the remaining 7.7% (3 nos.) took place in non-AFSPA area. Of the 36 in AFSPA – 10 (25.6%) took place around non-AFSPA area. That means 33.3% took place in and around non-AFSPA area.

Again further analysis shows, during those fight, a total death of 57 persons (30 UG, 10 central force, 10 civilian and 7 unknown persons; total injury is 9 – 2 central force and 7 civilians.

9. The analysis gives a grand final figure of 80 deaths (including 1 killed by unknown), 52 injuries and 2 UGs captured by central force.

Inferences :

1. 43.4% of incidence took place in and around non-AFSPA area.

2. 45.4% of capture of militants/fake militants took place in and around non-AFSPA area.

3. 55.6% of capture is by state police, they are also involved in another 22.7% i.e. the state force is involved in 78.3% of capture.

4. During the various attacks/encounters 79 persons died (UG- 43, central force – 18, civilian – 11 & unknown 7) and 52 persons are injured (central force- 22, state force – 7 and civilian-23)

5. Fake encounter death as claimed by families/relatives are 10 in 8 incidences. However if one include UNLF claim – a total of 16 deaths in 14 fake encounter are found.

6. UNLF claimed 11 fake encounters during in pole period i.e. 1st research study.

7. Average no. of incidence per day is 1.96 is a little less than 2.

Hence the logical conclusion is –

i) The non-AFSPA area is alive and surviving normally in spite of these violence

ii) Violence is taking place both in AFSPA and Non-AFSPA area.

iii) The State police is quite competent to dealt with the situation.

iv) Actual encounters are very few and countable.

v) Average no. of incidence per day is - 2 nos.

vi) What is happening basically is a normal law & order problem, and hence,

vii) AFSPA is not needed in Manipur.

N.B.

1) A part of the research paper was submitted to Hon'ble Supreme Court as a part of the ongoing fight for removal of AFSPA from Manipur.

2) Non-AFSPA area means the 7 Assembly segment of Greater Imphal area where the Draconian Act is removed since August, 2004.

3) Around non-AFSPA area means next to non-AFSPA area, example Naoria Pakhang Lakpa A/C next to Keishamthong A/C, Patsoi A/C next to Sagolband A/C and so on. (The writer is former Director, Health Services)