India's Climate Prediction in 2030 and Manipur
- Part 1

N Munal Meitei *

The second India Climate Change Assessment Report was released on Tuesday, the 16th November 2010. Detailed presentations were made by the scientists highlighting the salient findings of the study. This released was under the aegis of the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) which was launched by the Ministry of Environment and Forests on October 14, 2009.

This second assessment 'Climate Change and India : A 4X4 Assessment' addresses the concerns of the enormous implications of climate change to the natural resources and livelihoods of the people in the 4 climate sensitive regions of Himalayan region, North-East region, the Western Ghats and the Coastal plains for the 4 key sectors of Agriculture, Water, Health and Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity due to impacts of Climate Change in 2030. The 4 region, 4 sectors Assessment in short has been referred to as a 4x4 Assessment.

The 4x4 Assessment has been prepared by 220 experts and scientists belonging to 120 INCCA institutions. The assessment examines the implications of the climate change scenario in 2030s using a regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Climate Investigation Studies). The assessment also brings out the future areas of work to enhance the knowledge and areas of further improvement in the future assessments.

The aims of the assessments are
(a) Executive Summary and implications of climate change through scientific research.
(b) Prepare climate change assessments once every two years (greenhouse gas estimations and impact of climate change, associated vulnerabilities and adaptation).
(c) Develop decision support systems and
(d) Build capacity towards management of climate-change related risks and opportunities.

The first Assessment of the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions was released on May 11, 2010 at a National Workshop in New Delhi. It covers the sectors of Energy, Industry, Agriculture, Land Use, Change of Forest etc.

Climate change has emerged as a significant man made global environmental challenge and a threat. There are growing scientific evidence that there is a discernible impact of human activities on climate system. The scientific evidence of global warming is evident at the continental level whereas the understanding of the implications of climate change at the regional and sub regional level is rather inadequate. Thus there is a need for more comprehensive studies and information at the regional and national level.

Releasing the report, the then Minister for Environment & Forests, Mr Jairam Ramesh, noted: "There is no country in the world that is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India is. This makes it imperative for us to have sound evidence-based assessments on the impact of climate change. It is also for the first time that an assessment has been made for the 2030s (all previous assessments were for the 2070s and beyond). We must continue this focus on rigorous climate change science." The 4x4 Assessment examines the implications of climate change for India in 2030s has been deduced from a Regional Climate Model Had RM3 (Hadley Centre Regional Model Version 3) run for A1B scenario. The 4X4 Assessment contains the following projections:-

1. Climate change projections

Climate change scenarios for 2030s indicate an overall warming for all the regions in focus. The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranges between 1.7°C – 2.2°C, with extreme temperatures increasing by 1.0°C-4.0°C, with maximum increase in coastal regions. The extreme maximum and minimum temperatures are also projected to increase in 2030. All the regions are projected to experience an increase in precipitation in 2030s with respect to 1970s and the increase is maximum in the Himalayan region and minimum increase in the North Eastern region. The extreme precipitation events are likely to increase by 5-10 days in all the regions.

2. Sea Level Rise and extreme events

Sea level along the Indian coast has been rising at the rate of 1.3mm/year and is likely to rise in consonance with the global sea level rise in the future. Further projections indicate that the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030s, with increase in cyclonic intensity.

3. Agriculture

Irrigated rice in all the regions are likely to gain in yields marginally due to warming as compared to the rain fed crop as the irrigated rice tends to benefit from CO2 fertilisation effect. Maize and sorghum are projected to have reduced yields in all the regions. The Coconut productivity is projected to rise in the western coast and reduce in the eastern coastal region. Observations indicate a reduction in apple production in the Himalayan region, which is likely to continue in the future.

In case of marine fisheries some species will gain in yields, as the warming favours their productivity such as Sardines. Some species like Indian mackerel are likely to move upwards to the northern latitudes thus maintaining their yields. Species like Threadfin breams may shift their spawning seasons adjusting to the season which optimally favours spawning temperatures. For livestock production, with overall warming, the Thermal Humidity Index (THI) is projected to increases in all the regions, especially in the months of May and June, leading to stress to the livestock and hence reduction in its milk productivity.

4. Water

Water yield which is a function of precipitation, total surface run off, evapotranspiration and soil properties, is projected to increase in the Himalayan region in 2030s by 5-20%, however, water yields are likely to be variable across the North Eastern region, Western Ghats and Coastal region. In some places in these regions, it is projected to increase and in some places it is projected to decrease. Moderate to extreme drought severity is projected in 2030s for the Himalayan region, as compared to the other regions. All the regions are likely to experience flooding which are exceeding existing magnitudes by 10% to 30%.

5. Forests

Change is projected for 8% 18%, 56%, and 30% of the vegetation grids and increase in Net Primary Productivity by 23%, 20%, 57%, and 31% is projected in Western Ghats, North eastern region, Himalayan region, and the Coastal region.

6. Human Health & Malaria

Malaria which is WHO termed as the human enemy No.1 is projected to spread in new areas in Jammu and Kashmir in the Himalayan region. In the North eastern region opportunities for transmission is likely to increase for a longer period. In the Western Ghats, no change is observed between in 2030s and the trends observed in 1970s. However, in the Coastal region, especially in the Eastern coast a marked decrease in number of months is projected in which that the malaria transmission window would be open.

Who are in INCCA ?

INCCA (Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment) is a network-based programme that brings together over 120 institutions and over 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientific assessments of different aspects of climate change assessment. The INCCA is visualised as a mechanism to create new institutions and engage existing knowledge institutions already working with the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) as well as other agencies.

Currently, the institutions of the various ministries such as that of the MoEF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Science & Technology, Defence Research and Development Organisation etc, along with research institutions, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Indian Council of Agriculture Research, Department of Science & Technology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Management, prominent State and Central Universities and reputed Non-governmental organisations and Industry associations who are working on the various studies on climate change.

to be continued ...