Conference on Political Transition in India's Neighbourhood - Afghanistan and Myanmar
Date : 11 April, 2014 at Zakir Husain Delhi College

Conference
on
Political Transition in India’s Neighbourhood
AFGHANISTAN AND MYANMAR
11th April, 2014


ZAKIR HUSAIN DELHI COLLEGE
(University of Delhi)
Jawaharlal Nehru Marg, New Delhi-110002 Ph: 011- 23232218, 23233420, Fax 23215906

Concept Note

Today the region in India’s neighbourhood stands at the crossroads of history. Political uncertainties, growing internal and regional insecurities, weakening social fabrics, economic hardships despite the mirage of growth and systemic human rights violations define the political climate of the south Asian region. India’s neighbourhood particularly Afghanistan and Myanmar, on the west and east respectively, are undergoing a rapid political transition embrowned with a number of possibilities. Political transition in both the countries affects not only the life of the people of the two countries but also has tremendous bearings on peace, security, stability and development of the entire region. However, the nature of the political turmoil, historical background, geopolitical imperatives and undergoing transition in the two countries and their implications for the region and India in particular are very much different.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s predicament is the result of a mix of legacy of cold war, the US-Pakistan post cold war lopsided policies, post 9/11 US militarism, Obama’s half hearted approach towards Afghanistan’s reconstruction, lack of clarity in his Pakistan’s policy and Afghans’ collective inability to reach a comprehensive political reconciliation. Afghanistan challenge is the challenge of post-conflict nation and state building in a country still rooted in tribalism and absence of a viable economy. Taliban’s extremism, opium cultivation, warlordism, resistance to the authority of centralised state, dependence on foreign donors’ money and Pakistan’s elusive search for strategic depth against India are the stumbling blocks on the path of stabilization in Afghanistan.

Twelve years of US involvement, international assistance and a constitutional elected government have not been able to make the writ of Afghanistan’s central authority reach beyond Kabul. Taliban never surrendered and the Bonn process in December 2001 made no efforts to accommodate the Taliban in Afghanistan’s power sharing arrangement. Ongoing efforts for political reconciliation with Taliban have not yet shown any sign of a settlement. There are allegations of rampant corruption under Karzai government and his uneasy relations with the US have delayed the signing of the Afghanistan-US Bilateral Security Agreement despite its approval by the National Loya Jirgah.

There are mixed signals of whether Afghanistan will be able to maintain peace and stability and prevent the reemergence of Taliban from forcibly capturing state power or preventing a civil war reminiscent of the days of post -Soviet withdrawal in 1989. Taliban has been no doubt weakened but it remains a serious contender for power. The conduct of elections to Presidency and Parliament is a challenge which hopefully will be carried out and new government may sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. The US and international assistance in non-combative role and financial assistance will be required for a long time to come. Lots of stakes of the international community and India are involved in peace, stability and prosperity in Afghanistan and maintenance of its independence and sovereignty.

Myanmar

The new democratic regime in Myanmar is now taking its baby steps and embarking on a new era of democratic reforms on the path of ‘disciplined democracy’. At this stage, it has to face a number of teething troubles and has a long way to go from infancy to adolescence. As it moves forward in its growth and maturity, we hope these problems can be overpowered with the emergence of a more open and mature democracy. The newly established national and regional parliaments are the centerpiece of the country’s reform process. Still, the new Constitution greatly inhibits the creation of a genuine civilian government in Myanmar. One reason is the reservation of 25% of all seats in the national Parliament for military personnel. It also assigns key ministerial portfolios such as Defense and Home Affairs exclusively to military representatives. The other controversial clause relates to article 59(f) which prohibits any citizens whose parents, spouse or children owe any allegiance to a foreign power. Likewise, the Constitution grants extraordinary powers to an unelected “Commander in Chief of the Defense Services,” who during a self-declared state of emergency may assume all legislative, executive, and judicial authority. Finally, constitutional amendments require the approval of over 75 per cent of parliamentary members, effectively giving the military a veto over constitutional change. Moreover, ethnic nationalities have also been demanding a federal constitution, granting them greater autonomy.

Although, the change is coming slowly to the isolated country, but still, it has a long way to go. With the elections being held on Nov 7, 2010 and release of Aung San Suu Kyi on November 13, 2010 there is a ray of hope for democracy and change in Myanmar. The entry of Suu Kyi and her party to the parliament has been a means of legitimizing newly established civilian regime's mandate to govern and enhance its own reform credentials. The regime needs Suu Kyi in the parliament to bolster the authority of its own political system and spur on easing Western sanctions. However, Suu Kyi needs the military perhaps more than anyone else if she is to advance politically and amend the constitution, given a quarter of seats are reserved for the military. The reform process, however, in Myanmar is scared by the reformists and hardliners in the army. The hardliners have become more concerned after the last bye-elections when military backed USDP could just get one out of the 45 seats. Nevertheless, resolving the ethnic issue will be Myanmar’s biggest challenge now. Overcoming of sixty year old ethnic conflict will not be easy and the government will have to do a great deal to build the trust necessary to move beyond temporary ceasefires to resolve the underlying political issues. These developments, therefore, have a significant implication for the dynamics of power struggle and future road map to the presidency in Myanmar in the 2015 elections.

Given this background, the Conference intends to deliberate upon theme of political transition especially in the context of Afghanistan and Myanmar—India’s two strategic neighbours. The dilemmas of political transition in Afghanistan and the nature of democratization in Myanmar are issues which require critical interventions. In this perspective, the Conference would discuss the issue of state building in the context of post conflict society of Afghanistan and national reconciliation process in Myanmar.

(Convenors)
Dr. Uma Shankar (Email: [email protected] )
Dr. Sonu Trivedi (Email: [email protected])
Department of Political Science
Zakir Husain Delhi College
University of Delhi