State to witness below normal rainfall, above normal heat
Source: Chronicle News Service

Imphal, July 05 2025: Manipur is likely to face a double-edged climate risk this monsoon season, with forecasts indicating below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures, during the period from June to September 2025 .

The seasonal outlook issued by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), under the India Meteorological Department (IMD), points to rising concerns for agriculture, water security and public health in the state.

As per the consensus forecast, Manipur is predominantly covered in shades of yellow, signalling below normal rainfall, while the maximum temperature map shows the state in red and orange zones, indicating a high probability of above normal daytime temperatures.

The minimum temperature outlook also predicts warmer than usual nights across the region.

This combination of reduced precipitation and increased heat poses a serious threat to rain-fed agriculture, which is the backbone of Manipur's economy.

Farmers may face water stress, crop failure, and increased irrigation costs.

Hotter conditions could also accelerate soil moisture loss, reduce livestock productivity, and heighten the risk of heat-related illnesses.

As per IMD report, Manipur had 18 per cent below normal rainfall in June this year.

While overall monsoon rainfall in the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal in July, but most parts of northeast India and many parts of east India, including Bihar and West Bengal, extreme south peninsular India, and some areas of northwest India, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in the month, IMD said recently.

Meanwhile, rainfall climatology data based on the 1981-2019 average shows that Manipur usually receives moderate to high rainfall during the June-September period.

The current projection deviates significantly from this norm, heightening concerns over the potential for seasonal drought.

Adding to the challenge is the growing frequency of flash floods caused by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, which have become increasingly common in recent years.

Experts warn that even in a season of overall rainfall deficit, isolated very heavy rains can cause urban waterlogging, landslides in hill districts, and damage to roads and infrastructure.

Many have pointed out that such paradoxical events of dry spells interrupted by sudden, extreme downpours are be coming the new normal due to climate change, making planning and preparedness more complex.

This regional climate outlook for the 2025 southwest monsoon season over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with the support from international experts at the 31st session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-31) conducted in Pune recently.

The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world.

With maximum of the farmlands in the state being rain-fed farms, the dual stress of rainfall deficit and above normal temperatures is likely to severely affect rice cultivation, which is heavily dependent on the monsoon.

Shortage of adequate water and higher temperatures can lead to stunted plant growth, reduced tillering, and increased spikelet sterility, thereby lowering overall yields.

The stress conditions can also create a more favourable environment for pest outbreaks, particularly brown planthoppers, stem borers, and leaf folders, which are common in the state.

Weakened plant health due to water stress can make rice crops more vulnerable to these pests, leading to further crop losses.

In addition, higher night temperatures can impair grain filling in rice, while moisture deficiency may reduce the effectiveness of pest management practices, compounding the threat to food security in the state.

This could eventually lead to excessive use of chemical pesticides as farmers attempt to contain the rising pest infestation, which may have long-term consequences.

Overreliance on pesticides not only increases production costs but also risks contaminating soil and water sources.

Residue build-up in food crops can adversely affect human health, leading to issues such as pesticide poisoning, hormonal disruption, and other chronic illnesses.

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