Voting and Development : A new strategy

Dr L Krishnamangol Singh *

It is well known that in a democracy or in a democratic country, a voter chooses or elects a candidate of a political party at the time of election (election of any type) of the country or of any State. In fact, at the time of Parliamentary election (in short, know as MP Election for India), every citizen of the country/Nation has a big role or right to vote to elect the candidate of his or her choice according to his or her judgment. And this is the chance of voting for electing the “responsible candidate” (ie in the sense of having capacity/ability to do some benefits or more benefits for the country/Nation or for the State).

Keeping this background in mind, we may now briefly touch on certain aspects of “economic vote.” At the outset, it can be clarified that as the Parliamentary election is a justice over, our analysis/discussions will be based on theoretical framework and policy on the issues of “Economic Vote” relevant to any election.

In fact, voting behaviour is important in choosing or selecting the candidate. And the voting behavior is again determined by the development activities, ideologies, policy perspectives, political affiliation, performance of the Government/political party etc. of the candidate, It can also be pointed out that in the past “money” played a strong/key role in winning the election. But, there has been some changes in recent years. In fact, it is observed that in recent years programmes of socio economic changes and development have shaped the voting behaviour of the people/voters.

For example economic reforms introduced and implemented in the nineties during the Congress rule in India under the guidelines of World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) yielded political success for the Congress party at the time of election. But due to many factors which are well known, the BJP came to power in 2014 when Shri Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India.

Thus, it is observed that in the present context of Manipur the voting behaviour of the people/voters is mostly determined by the efficiency or inefficiency of the Government and the varied development programmes launched/imple- mented by the Government or the State.

It is in this context that the term “economic vote” has relevance in the Indian and Manipur contexts. In fact, it is observed that there has been varied or enormous literature on the study of “economic vote” or economic voting literature. And the essence of the theory of economic vote basically implies the decision of vote or choice of a voter for a candidate by a voter in the context of the importance of economic or development performances of the Government or according to the preference function of the voter (ie the preference of the voter out of the given candidates).

Also a voter’s behaviour is also determined by the electronic and print media. Again, his or her voting behaviour is determined by what is happening in the economy and society. It is also further well known that the law and order conditions have also shaped the voting behaviour of the public or any voter.

Thus, the economic vote attach much importance to the functioning of the economy or economic development of the country or the state. Here, it is interesting to note that there has been a large volume of literature on the study of “economic vote” or “economic voting.” While the former implies the behaviour of a voter and the importance attached to the vote in selecting the candidate out of the given candidates of the political party or in selecting an independent candidate,

the latter implies the “act of voting” or the actual casting of vote for selecting or electing the candidate in support of the candidate or in support of the political party. Thus, the final outcome of the election will be known after actual economic voting and the counting of the vote. In short, economic vote is the decision to vote while economic voting is the actual casting or vote on the electronic selection of the candidate out of a given candidates of the political parties.

Thus, the voting behaviour of a voter may be changed before economic voting or actual casting of vote or pressing for selection of candidate in the electronic voting machine due to a number of factors such as strong campaign for the candidate (as per rules), development agenda or programmes reflected in the election manifesto of the political party, specific commitment of the candidate for the welfare of the people in addition to the development programmes of the political party already announced, changing ideologies of the political party etc.

Thus, the political parties require a lot of research in the field of economic development and welfare of the people in order to convince the voters or the public about the various development programmes before the election.

At this stage, it can be pointed out that the concept of “economic vote” and “economics voting” are not new concepts and that the differences of the two terms are already well known among the political, public, intellectual, journalistic, legal and academic circles. And the two concepts or the political policies of the two conceptual theories are more popular in advanced or developed countries, However, it would be essential to briefly touch on the theories of economic vote and economic voting in order to achieve the goals of election or the success in election of the political parties.

Thus, it can be mentioned that the subject matter of economic vote and economic voting is drawn from various disciplines such as economics, political science, and other science and social science subjects. In fact, the study of economic vote and economic voting is interdisciplinary subject/discipline dealing with economic development issues and policies, political institutions, social institutions and issues, ideologies of political parties, international relation, national and state security etc., which condition or shape the election results or the success of the candidate of the parties in the election.

Thus, there has been a large volume of literature/studies mainly drawn from various discipline such as political science or the study of politics with development, economics etc., in recent years.

It is in this context that an attempt is made here to briefly bring out the idea of economic vote of the conceptual understanding of economic vote and its difference from that or economic voting. In fact, in reviewing the various studies on politics, economics and various standard journals dealing with democracy, economic and social issues etc., it is found that economic vote is different from the economic voting.

Here, it may be noted that it is professor Duch (Oxford University) and Stevenson (Rice University, Houston, Texas), who have widely popularized the concept of economic vote and economic voting. And these two concepts are essential in understanding the voting behaviour of the voters. It is found that economic vote relates to the behaviour of the voter who determines the “preference function” (i.e. choice for the candidate) out of a number of candidates on the basis of the performance of the economy and society.

Thus, in this concept of economic vote which may be conceptualized as “development vote” there is no for corruption. In fact, the economic vote of the voter supports the candidate or the party on the basis of the economic evaluation/performance or on the basis of the voter’s preference for the candidate on the party that the representative or the political party is expected to fulfil in the interest of the people and the country.

And the voting behaviour of the different voters varied across candidates or across the manifestoes of the political parties in a significant manner. Thus, the theory of economic vote suggests that the voters would exercise their votes for the candidate in order to elect the candidate in the election results. In fact, the theory of economic vote is highly complicated.

However, it can be briefly pointed out that the voter will vote for the party or candidate with the highest “value” of the candidate (importance of the candidate for the public out of the alternative candidates) And the individual choices the candidate according to his/her assessment of the candidate And the voter also takes the decision on the basis of larger perception of the people and the party, and the reality of any situation that serves the interest of the whole society and polity.

In fact, the voter believes that the perception of the individual or the individual ideology model can be adjusted with the general ideology of the party to which he/she belongs. The voter also believes that the candidate would take his/her decision on the basis of wide “public research opinion” in order to promote development of the economy and the people with dignity and social justice.

Thus, the voter has secretly in his or her mind that mere propaganda on any issue cannot influence the candidate’s decision. Indeed, economic vote requires wide public opinion research and the voter would take his or her decision of vote based on the findings of the public opinion research.

We may now turn our discussion on the conceptual understanding of ‘Economic Voting ’ and compare its similarity or otherwise from that of economic vote. In discussing the economic vote and economic voting, it can be pointed out that elections are held as referenda (a general vote by the electorate on a single ‘political question’ for a direct decision on electing a representative), which is related to the economy or the situation of the country’s economy.

In fact, in a country’s or state’s election, a voter chooses a candidate for a political position representing the people or peoples. Here, it may quickly be clarified that election is not merely held for the purpose of the economy or economics development and other purposes, which are already well known to all.

In fact, in a democracy, elections are usually held for the purpose of preserving sovereignty of the country, formation of a new government, promoting democracy and achieving ‘welfare’ (i.e. in economics, promoting welfare means one man’s welfare should not affect others) accelerating overall economic growth and economic development of the country including the states among others.

Here, without going into the details of the process of election, which is not the purpose of the present short article, it is proposed to single out the conceptual and theoretical understanding of economic vote and economic voting. As already noted economic vote is the decision taken by voter for electing a representative or a candidate according to the preference function of the voter from among the given candidates. And the voter’s choice is also basically based on the situation of the real economy. Thus, in economic vote, the success of the candidate mainly depends on the function of the real economy.

In fact, the candidate or the party should understand many critical issues such as reflecting deterioration of the economy or economic development in terms of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), worsening per capita income of the people, unequal income distribution, existence of poverty and unemployment, environmental degradation and loss of common property resourced (CPRs), absence of avenues or opportunities for the participation of the people in development, lack of economic policies to cater to the needs of the modern economic growth and development, ‘rising expectation of revolution’ (Jagadish Bhagawati) without any proper basis and justification, slogan of retrogradation movement without knowing the socio-economic system and development, the evolution of family institutions in the historical contexts of the society, differences between human creatures and human beings (ie in the framework of Federic Engel’s origin of family), the difference between the genesis of tribes (now tribals) and non-tribals after

the breakdown of the primitive society in different parts of the world the hijacked democracy (in the early history of kingdom) which had got ultra vires and which had been rejected by the authorities existed or prevalent in those days, lack of understanding of the proprietary rights of the kings and the power he could exercise in an independent kingdom to march towards democracy, and the value of the protection of life of the people under the kingdom against the adverse conditions from within and the neighbouring countries, danger of getting new ‘social status’ (ie unreasonable and conflicting status) in the name of constitution and the myriad of unexplained and unexpected social consequences if the tribal status is given to a new class eg Meitei in our case).

Lack of understanding of the new civil codes to be followed by the new tribals, large-scale immigration from lack of understanding of the politics of delimitation that seek to keep a balance of power among all communities, which is essential for peace and harmony, elimination of the concept of plebeian (lower class) and pediatrician classes and how the tribal organisations declined or decayed in the most European countries beginning from about the 5th century to about the 15 th century, uniformity in the common property resources (CPRs) in land, which the new tribal class may not be able to sacrifice, distribution of land or land ownership (to be fixed by the legal experts) excluding the common property resources which cannot be distributed from the environmental and ecological point of view, the need for law and order in the country/State, tight policy measures and actions for National and State security, which are already enshrined in the Constitution of the country, promotion of public health programs, education for all ( i.e. at different levels) accelerating maximum full employment and employment generation for all the labour force etc.

These are a few illustrative points and more relevant factors or frontiers of development may be identified. Thus, the political party or the candidate needs to address these critical issues relevant to any society or country for enhancing the economics vote from the voters. And, these issues and policies should be properly documented for public knowledge and the information and views of various development issues need to be disseminated to create awareness of the publics/voters. Thus, the decisions taken by the voters will enhance the eco- nomic vote which has a fair chance of success in the election.

In fact, it is observed that the political parties and the candidates are aware of the significance of economic vote in the recently concluded election. But, the economic voting for the voter’s preference function is mutually exclusive as one will be selected as a successful candidate only of a given set of candidates. Thus, in spite of having different roles of the candidates, economic vote or development vote plays a crucial role in making the candidate a popularly elected person in the election to become a member of Parliament or a member of any political institution.

Having seen the critical issues of economic vote and the voting behaviour of the voters, it would be interesting to set out a few points on ‘economic voting’.

In fact, economic vote needs measurement of data for the voters, which are difficult to be obtained. As already noted, economic vote is the decision for the vote and there may be contextual variation in the economic vote (i.e. the number of variations in the economic vote) . As against this (the expectation of economic vote) the economic voting will reveal the actual number of votes obtained by the candidates. In fact, economic vote vote is simply decision of the voters for the candidate while economic voting shows the actual voting outcome result.

Thus, there are many reasons that the rational ‘expectation’ (an economics term that reveals the actual outcome than expected) of the candidate or the party to which he or she belongs widely or marginally differ among or between candidates. Thus, the theory of economic voting seeks to test the hypotheses of the theory of economic vote.

We may now briefly state the meaning of economic voting. It may be noted that voting is an individual discrete (increasing or real choice (Dutch and Stevenson, The Economic vote,p. 40). Thus, according to Duch and Steveson, any definition of economic viting at the individual level must posit (put forwards as a fact or as a justification of the view) some relationship between a person’s perception of the economy and probability of casting a vote for each of the available parties or candidates in on election (i.e. determination of his support or decision) – (Ibid,p.40). Thus, the economic voting implies/defines the task of relationship between the actual voter’s choice and the economy (now measured in terms of overall development “including law and order).

In fact, economic voting relates to economic perceptions (view) and performance of the economy. Thus, economic voting may be changed in the decision of the voter according to the change in economic perceptions and performances. And if all the positions of the candidates are zero, there is no economic voting. And economic voting is also different in different countries according to the different conditions of the countries. Thus theoretically. It is essential to promote welfare and development of the people in order to secure the largest number of economic voting among all the political parties (i.e. among all the candidates of the political parties.

To conclude everybody knows that election cannot be compared with fashion in a democracy. There is the need for serious work of the candidate and political party for winning the election. And election also need not lead to unnecessary fragmentation of the Nation, States and the societies. What is more important is to check or guard against the external aggression from neighbouring country or other foreign countries. Today, in the context of Manipur, the Central and State Governments have a crutial role to flush out or crowd out the Kuki terrorists coming into Manipur from Myanmar.

At the political level, it is also necessary to take policy measures for making review of bilateral agreements reached between Myanmar and Government of India since the Honourable Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of the country since 2014.

And, in the event of failure to bring peace and normalcy, and public order in Manipur at the earliest, it is inevitable on the part of the Government of India and Government of Manipur to launch heavy attack on the Kuki terrorists, who are attacking and killing the Meiteis (ie the Meitei is officially a recognised early term )by deploying maximum army and armed forces wherever the Kuki terrorists exist in Manipur till the normalcy restores in the state as India had the determination to counter China in 1962 war and Pakistan in 1965 war.

In fact, it is not the time to follow the principle of "the most undeveloped territory is one that lies under the hats and caps that men wear ". (Parliamentarian Minoo Mosani quoted in Mainstream New Delhi, January 6, 1910:34)

This suggests that there is now the need for a new paradigm shift in the policy of the Government of India and Government of Manipur to retaliate and annihilate the Kuki terrorists and their related foreign elements in order to save national security of India and security of Manipur and protect the sovereignty of the country and the integrity of Manipur, and restore peace and normalcy in the state without further delay.