The fall of the AAP: Lessons from Delhi's political transformation

Dipak Kurmi *

In a dramatic political shift, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reclaimed Delhi after 27 years, toppling the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections. This landmark victory ended a decade-long dominance of AAP in the National capital and dismantled the political fortress meticulously built by Arvind Kejriwal, once the face of anti-corruption and alternative governance in India.

The BJP's decisive win with 48 seats out of 70 compared to AAP’s reduced tally of 22 has redefined Delhi’s political landscape, leaving the AAP to confront its most humbling defeat yet. The Congress party, despite failing to secure a single seat, played a critical role in this political reshuffling, further exacerbating AAP’s challenges in a high-stakes three-cornered contest.

The Rise and Fall of AAP

Arvind Kejriwal’s journey from a bureaucrat-turned-activist to a political heavyweight began with his emergence from Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement. In 2013, he unseated Delhi’s long-serving Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, marking the arrival of a fresh political force in Indian democracy.

By 2015, Kejriwal had swept the Delhi Assembly elections, reducing both the BJP and Congress to political irrelevance. His Govern- ment’s transfor-mative initiatives in education, healthcare, and electricity subsidies resonated with the common man, while his image as a humble, Wagon R-driving Chief Minister symbolized simplicity and integrity.

However, a decade later, this image crumbled under the weight of scandals, administrative shortcomings, and strategic miscalculations. Allegations of corruption linked to changes in liquor policy, coupled with the extravagant renovation of the Chief Minister’s residence into a “sheesh mahal,” eroded public trust.

Kejriwal’s ambition to position himself as a National contender for the Prime Minister’s office overshadowed his role as Delhi’s Chief Minister. The very traits that once made him a political trailblazer became his Achilles’ heel, as voters turned against a leader they felt had lost touch with his grassroots ethos.

Anti-Incumbency and Governance Deficits

After 10 years in power, AAP encountered strong anti-incumbency sentiments. While the party continued to excel in areas such as education and public health, its inability to address core civic issues such as pollution, flooding, garbage disposal, and traffic congestion increasingly frustrated voters. The BJP, meanwhile, capitalized on these shortcomings, promising a "double-engine Government" that would align Delhi’s State Government with the Centre to ensure efficient governance.

Kejriwal’s confrontational relationship with the BJP-led Central Government further exacerbated AAP’s woes. Frequent clashes with the Lieutenant Governor stalled policy implementation and painted AAP as a party more inclined to play the victim card than deliver solutions. The BJP’s campaign effectively redirected public dissatisfaction with Delhi’s governance toward AAP’s leadership, framing it as a party mired in blame games and inefficiency.

The Role of Congress in AAP’s Decline

Despite its poor electoral performance in Delhi since 2015, the Congress party played a decisive role in this election. In at least 14 Constituencies, the margin of victory was smaller than the votes garnered by Congress candidates. This dynamic allowed the BJP to secure a landslide victory with 48 seats, aided by a 7.5% increase in its vote share to 46%, compared to AAP’s 44%.

The Congress’s presence in the INDIA Bloc—a coalition of Opposition parties aiming to counter the BJP—further complicated matters for AAP. Open bickering between Congress and AAP leaders during the campaign, along with Congress’s reluctance to take a backseat in Delhi, weakened the unity of the Opposition alliance. This internal discord, coupled with the BJP’s aggressive and cohesive campaign, ensured a clear path to victory for the saffron party.

BJP’s Strategic Mastery

The BJP’s campaign in Delhi was a testament to its ability to adapt to local political dynamics. Learning from its underwhelming performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party abandoned its one-size-fits-all approach and tailored its strategy to Delhi’s unique challenges.

The BJP skillfully appropriated AAP’s welfare narrative, offering targeted freebies and benefits to key voter groups, including women. It also built a broad caste coalition while avoiding factionalism, ensuring a cohesive and effective campaign.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi played a pivotal role, directly targeting AAP’s leadership with accusations of corruption and inefficiency. BJP cadres mobilized across Delhi to expose AAP’s administrative failures, while the party’s promises of development and aligned governance resonated with voters seeking change.

In this context, AAP’s own attempts to co-opt elements of Hindutva alienated minority voters without securing support from the BJP’s core constituency, leaving it stranded in a political no-man’s-land.

Kejriwal’s Strategic Missteps

One of the critical factors in AAP’s defeat was its decision to contest the election independently rather than forming an alliance with Congress. This move backfired as it split the anti-BJP vote, allowing the saffron party to consolidate its position. Additionally, Kejri- wal’s polarizing remarks and his failure to address the 2020 communal riots alienated minority voters, who shifted away from AAP in significant numbers.

Kejriwal’s desperation was evident as he accused opponents of orchestrating conspiracies against him, yet failed to address the deeper issues within his party. His decision to focus on expanding AAP’s footprint Nationally, rather than consolidating its governance record in Delhi, further weakened the party’s standing among its core voter base.

The Road Ahead for AAP and INDIA Bloc

The BJP’s victory in Delhi has triggered an existential crisis for AAP, which now governs only Punjab. The loss of its stronghold raises questions about AAP’s relevance within the INDIA Bloc and its ability to challenge the BJP at the National level. For the Opposition alliance, AAP’s defeat highlights the challenges of maintaining unity among diverse parties with conflicting interests and priorities.

To rebuild, AAP must undertake a comprehensive introspection. Addressing corruption allegations transparently, implementing internal reforms, and reconnecting with grassroots voters will be critical to restoring its credibility. The party must also recalibrate its National ambitions and focus on delivering effective governance in Punjab to demonstrate its ability to govern responsibly.

A New Era in Delhi’s Politics

The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections underscore the evolving dynamics of Indian politics. For the BJP, this victory marks a significant milestone in its quest to consolidate power across the Nation. For AAP, it serves as a sobering reminder of the perils of overreach and the importance of staying true to its founding principles.

As Delhi enters a new phase under BJP rule, the challenges of governance remain formidable. The city’s aspirations for better infrastructure, cleaner air, and improved public services will test the BJP’s ability to deliver on its promises.

Meanwhile, AAP’s future hangs in the balance, as the party grapples with its most significant political defeat and contemplates its next steps in an increasingly polarized political landscape. Whether AAP can rise from the ashes or fade into political obscurity remains to be seen, but the lessons from this election will undoubtedly shape the future of Indian democracy. (T)