Myanmar's elusive democracy and India's strategic stakes

Dipak Kurmi *

The pursuit of a free, fair, and participatory election in Myanmar, also known as Burma or Brahmadesh, seems almost like 'hoping against hope.' Since gaining independence in 1948, Myanmar has been mired in political turmoil, largely dictated by the Nation's powerful military.

Despite various efforts to establish democratic governance, the country's political landscape remains deeply uncertain, with the armed forces playing an outsized role in determining the Nation's fate. This is especially troubling for neighbouring India, which shares a 1,650-kilometre-long international border with Myanmar, including the North Eastern region that has recently experienced internal security issues, most notably in Manipur.

India, as an immediate neighbour, must remain proactive in addressing the complex geopolitical and strategic concerns that arise from Myanmar's political instability. However, the electoral process in Myan- mar has always been problematic, and since the introduction of a military-drafted Constitution in 2008, the situation has wor- sened.

The military has reserved a significant number of Parliamentary and Assembly seats for itself, ensuring that even if elections are held, they are far from truly democratic. Amending this Constitution is an uphill battle, as the military junta continues to wield immense power, making it nearly impossible for pro-democracy forces to effect meaningful change.

Unless there is a fracture within the military hierarchy, Myanmar is unlikely to see free and fair elections at either the National or regional levels, rendering the current political framework almost entirely undemocratic.

A recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), a Stockholm-based intergovernmental organisation, highlighted the gro- wing global phenomenon of disputed elections, with declining voter turnout and increasingly questionable outcomes.

The report singled out Myanmar, along with countries like the United States, as examples of Nations grappling with election interference and related disputes. In both Myanmar and the US, election results have been ques- tioned — in the US, by former President Donald Trump’s Republican Party following the 2020 elections, and in Myanmar, by the military junta after the 2020 National elections.

While the military junta promises elections, the reality on the ground remains grim. The junta lacks full control over the entire country, with numerous armed ethnic groups and insurgents challenging its autho- rity. These groups, including various ethnic minority factions, have taken up arms against the military, and their resistance has intensified in recent months.

Many towns, particularly those near the Indian and Bangladeshi borders, have fallen under the control of armed groups, forcing the military to abandon several bases. Frustrated by these losses, the military has turned its aggression towards civilians, with even crowded villages suffering from repeated bombings. This brutal crackdown has forced many political figures, pro-democracy activists, and journalists to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, including India.

Given the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, India’s Union Government must tread carefully in its approach to the crisis. New Delhi has already invested in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, a major development initiative aimed at connecting India’s North Eastern region with the port of Sittwe in Myanmar’s Rakhine (Arakan) State.

However, the project has been stalled due to ongoing armed conflicts in the Arakan and Chin states. In addition, India is exploring the possibility of a pragmatic trilateral highway connecting India, Myanmar, and Thailand for both economic and strategic purposes. Yet, until peace and stability return to Myanmar, these ambitious projects will remain in limbo.

One intriguing development on India’s eastern front is the growing tension between anti-junta forces in Myanmar and northeastern Indian militants who have long used Myanmar’s jungles as a base for their insurgencies against New Delhi. As the anti-junta resistance gains momentum, these militants are finding themselves increasingly unwelcome in Myanmar.

Many Burmese civilians, who previously tolerated the presence of Indian separatist militants, are now turning against them for aligning with the brutal military regime. This shift has forced some Indian militant groups to rethink their strategies and seek refuge elsewhere.

In another significant move, New Delhi has invited several anti-junta outfits from northeastern India, along with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (the parallel government to the military junta), to participate in a mid-November seminar focused on Myanmar’s evolving constitutional democracy. If successful, this centre-supported initiative could mark a visible policy shift in India’s approach to its eastern neighbour and pave the way for a new era of cooperation and diplomacy.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Myanmar’s political future, there is widespread hope that the country will eventually achieve a stable democratic regime. The upcoming election, if held, must be a truly participatory process to ensure that the Burmese people have the opportunity to establish a forward-looking government that serves their interests.

Such an outcome would not only benefit Myanmar’s citizens but also have significant positive implications for India’s northeast, which has long been affected by the instability and conflict in Myanmar.

While the path to democracy in Myanmar remains fraught with challenges, it is essential for both the Burmese people and the international community, including India, to continue pushing for meaningful political reforms. Only through sustained pressure and diplomatic engagement can Myanmar hope to overcome its current political deadlock and move towards a more democratic and prosperous future.