TODAY -

Dance of democracy, a miracle in the making !

Shivaji Sarkar *



The nation wants to know who is forming the government even as the country barges into the fifth phase when voting for over 350 seats would have been completed.

Many say the BJP would come back as a whopping 85 percent of the Indian population, the highest in the world, likes authoritarian rule, according to Pew Research. So, the trillion-rupee question is whether the Modi government is coming back?

Yet on the ground there appears to be almost an equal number of enthusiasts who say “badlao dikh raha hai”, and opposition INDIA alliance is likely to hold the reins as they perceive that people are eager to have a new set of leaders with a new governance style, so that they can breathe with ease.

What makes the elections more interesting, and a tad uncertain is that this time they are playing out differently in each different state. But a common factor is emerging in the North and West.

It is manifesting in a kind of unrest among some caste groups led by Kshatriyas and Rajputs in the BJP against its own leaders. This has adversely affected quite a few seats in favour of Congress in Gujarat, at least half of Rajasthan and most parts of UP. The Congress is said to have done well in all these seats.

To say the least, it is not easy for the BJP. Most worrying for the party and its leadership is that its cadre has not come out to campaign. In such a situation, how would it get the 400 seats announced by the prime minister? The cadre is its army that brings the voters out, guides and cajole, if not pressurise, to vote.

In the absence of the cadre, can the BJP romp home? Not many seem to have an answer to this poser.

Everyone seems to be drowned in the myth of ‘400 paar’. A psyche has been created may be a bit less or still less, but chances are that the BJP would form the government. But let us examine if this is even possible?

One aspect that is missed is that as per Pew research, 22 percent are influenced by the Ram temple in different states, and such votes would be cast for BJP. The Modi magic or guarantee has also not lost its charm.

But the BJP was taken unaware of the Congress masterstroke at Rae Bareli-Amethi. It was beyond their imagination that Gandhi family loyalists would shake up Amethi and treat Rahul Gandhi treat Rae Bareli as cakewalk.

The INDIA has cobbled up an alliance countrywide. They are working in tandem, post-Arvind Kejriwal arrest, as if electrified by the suddenness of a second chief minister being arrested, in alleged liquor scandal that Aam Aadmi Party says was all trumped up to incarcerate its four top leaders so that it cannot campaign and contest the elections effectively.

His release on temporary bail has enthused the opposition parties even more. They are going together campaigning at different places to put the viewpoints against an “authoritarian” regime.

Voting figures are no less wonder. In many states, ruled by the BJP, the turn-out is amongst the lowest. Worst has been at Ghaziabad in UP. Women voters were conspicuous by their absence in most of western UP. Ghaziabad and Sahibabad recorded the lowest women turnout in the country. Women for some years are said to have been voting for BJP. The BJP is at a plateau in 11 states and has no chance of improving its tally.

The BJP can only lose or with great efforts cling to the previous numbers, again not so simple as anti-incumbency is palpable, its record of parliamentary proceedings, expelling 146 members, misbehaving with minority member Danish Ali in the House, ill-treating and calling Mohua Moitra of TMC names, locking of Congress party funds - all have not been taken kindly.

Various amendments like Bharata Nyaya Samhita, which have received Supreme Court strictures, on press freedom and others have evoked negative sentiments. Logically those moved by the above events may not have supported the BJP. Could they have voted for INDIA? Most say that they might have.

In Karnataka, INDIA is likely to get at least 17 as per the figures of assembly constituencies it won. Telangana is likely to repeat the assembly performance. The BJP may lose one or two of the four seats it had won in 2019. Maharashtra is no more a cakewalk with the Maratha sentiments rising against “vishwasghat” (treachery) and sympathy for Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thakre) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) swelling.

Punjab is a state where the BJP does not matter at all as AAP and Congress are engaged in a friendly but fierce battle. Jammu & Kashmir with three seats left uncontested by the BJP, it’s a matter of only two seats. The sixth seat of erstwhile Ladakh, now UT, may not go to BJP.

If these are the trends and it is assumed that many even in Northern India have voted against the BJP, it should not be in a comfortable position. In western UP’s Kairana, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Unnao, Kannauj and many other constituencies internecine troubles within the BJP are said to have caused damage to it, despite an alliance with Jayant Chaudhury’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, which may have fared well in one seat in Bijnor. The Samajwadi Party is said to have scored in many places with its ally Congress. It is to be seen how the balance tilts.

In all these areas, it was observed that the BJP core cadre that had been managing polls in previous elections was absent. No one is sure how that would impact the polling. The BSP factor may help in some seats. Overall, the BJP tally may be far less than what is claimed. It varies from 170-230.

India alliance is to have a major tally from Tamilnadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab, a few seats from Gujarat, J&K. Rajasthan and an unknown tally of 15 to 30 from UP. The contest is keen in Himachal. The total for INDIA varies from 220-250.

Finally, there is a catch. If one alliance is losing and the other is supposed to gain, past experiences show a swing happens. The electorate do not cast votes with that kind of precision. When one loses the figures go on plummeting. Similarly, the gainer is also showered with the unprecedented bounty. That magic remains hidden in the box that is to be opened on June 4. A miracle is not impossible.


* Shivaji Sarkar wrote this article for The Sangai Express
This article was webcasted on May 22 2024.



* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of e-pao.net. We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.




LATEST IN E-PAO.NET
  • 2nd Annual Art Exhibition #1 : Gallery
  • Violence in Manipur 2023-2024 : Timeline
  • Chilli Chicken: Film Spotlighting NE in B'lore
  • Committee of Narcotics Anonymous - Imphal
  • The Power of Meditation
  • Oceans as a career choice
  • Getting more and more audacious
  • A test of leadership
  • Education Fair @Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • Gifting two seats to Cong
  • Voters empowered democracy
  • Postcards from Meghalaya premieres
  • Milk : Essential nutrient for a healthy body
  • Failing in competitive exam not end of world
  • Delhi : A mere spectator
  • Abandoning Jiribam
  • Birth Centenary of Jananeta Irabat, 1996 : #5
  • Ima Keithel flood- May 30 #2 : Gallery
  • Mainstream in Shoes of Alternative
  • Protect the medicines that protect us
  • Lets take action for our land & our future
  • Democracy and independent media
  • Agenda at work to shut Western Gate
  • Keeping Manipur on the boil
  • Descent of Radha-Krishna #34: Download
  • The Enigmatic Journey of 'Laikhutshangbi'
  • Individual and the Social
  • An Ardent Appeal to All Concerns
  • Condemnation of Attack & Govt Inaction
  • The Power of Poppy - 34 :: Poem
  • Scientist of Manipur: Laishram Shanta
  • Alien fishes spotted in Manipur's rivers
  • Training on mushroom at Langthabal
  • Digital avatars or deepfakes ?
  • 7th June is the World Food Safety Day
  • How to prepare for UPSC after 10th ?
  • The Jiri violence
  • Beginning of a new vote culture ?
  • Bimol Akoijam (Cong) wins Inner PC : Gallery
  • BJP, NPF & other NDA pay heavy price
  • Nature is one of greatest blessings of God
  • Plantation drive in Tripura, Assam & Manipur
  • Summer beauty
  • Environment conservation & over-exploitation
  • Is Modi cut out for leading a coalition ?
  • 'Ishanou' Selection @ Cannes #2: Gallery
  • Scholarship for Johnstone Hr Sec students
  • 1st foundation day of Interfaith Forum
  • World Environment Day: Our land, our future
  • Indonesia stronger anti-tobacco measures
  • Navigating a fragile Myanmar: India's policy
  • New breed entering electoral politics
  • The road to formation of new govt
  • International Dance Day #1 : Gallery
  • Matchbox marketing mantra
  • Stop harming nature :: Poem
  • Saving for oneself & the Nation
  • Model United Nations (MUN) conducted
  • Tobacco: Threat to health & environment
  • Candidate from ruling party biting the dust
  • The verdict
  • Birth Centenary of Jananeta Irabat, 1996 : #4
  • Imphal valley districts flooded #3 : Gallery
  • Navigating Remal amidst Manipur conflict
  • We are #GenerationRestoration
  • Intl Day of Innocent Children Victims
  • Apparel Industry Skills & Innovation CoE
  • What's in a cyclone's name ?
  • Ongoing clash, the floods, the losses
  • Exit poll predictions
  • Descent of Radha-Krishna #33: Download
  • Evading flood & rethinking urbanization
  • Manipur Flood: Health Advisory
  • Onus on civil bodies to ensure NNPG unity
  • Rats also cause flood
  • Benefits of JEE Main mock tests
  • People have spoken, now the results
  • The fury of Remal
  • Ima Keithel flood- May 30 #1 : Gallery
  • The flood in our Stars
  • The Power of Poppy - 33 :: Poem
  • 'Group of people misrepresented themselves'
  • EV industry and career options
  • Scientist of Manipur: Chandrakant Aribam
  • Candy flavoured traps to hook next Gen
  • Commemorate Naga Plesbicite Day 1951 #2
  • Tobacco affects health & environment too
  • Jio extend validity for Customer in Manipur
  • Students must learn about AI irrespective
  • As vote count day approaches : Floods
  • Imphal valley districts flooded #2 : Gallery
  • Flooded : Sacrifice of Yairipok's Maiden
  • World No Tobacco Day 2024
  • Chandam Rishikanta wins NPC Nat'l C'ship
  • Flood: Helpline numbers for emergency
  • Battling body odour ?
  • Floods : Not entirely natural phenomena
  • PM Modi's purpose
  • Imphal valley districts flooded #1 : Gallery
  • June Calendar for Year 2024 : Tools
  • Flood: Control Rooms & Helpline numbers
  • Economic impact of ongoing conflict
  • Army Recruitment Rally for Manipur
  • Cut deficit, boom likely
  • Are Gods angry ? Wake up call for Manipur
  • Beating of the Retreat #2 : Gallery
  • We did Overcome: Mayhem of Month of May
  • Training on mushroom at Potshagbam
  • Famous female Mathematicians in India
  • Disinformation campaign thengnare
  • Human trafficking puts humanity to shame
  • Sky opens up in all its fury
  • Licypriya meets Italy PM & Pope Francis
  • HSLC (Class X) 2024 : Full Result
  • HSLC 2024 : Important Info & Grading System
  • HSLC 2024 : Pass % : Private Schools
  • HSLC 2024 : Pass % : Aided Schools
  • HSLC 2024 : Pass % : Govt Schools
  • HSLC 2024 : Statistical Abstract
  • HSLC 2024 : Comparative Statement
  • Combined Defence Services Exam 2024
  • Good show in Class X exams
  • Downplaying the crisis
  • Birth Centenary of Jananeta Irabat, 1996 : #3
  • Reviving Lamphelpat : Conservation : Gallery
  • Commemorate Naga Plesbicite Day 1951 #1
  • "ST status for Meetei" at Hojai
  • The Power of Poppy - 32 :: Poem
  • Insights from CUET-UG Counselling
  • International Day for Biological Diversity
  • Unseen force at work: Time to unravel it
  • Sheikh Hasina's revelation
  • The Vanishing Meitei Tribe
  • Building career in defence & strategic study
  • Why example of model code of conduct ?
  • Ownership of responsibility
  • Will pressure mount on key players in NE
  • How to save your foot after an accident
  • Children Camp @JNMDA Imphal #3 : Gallery
  • Education Fair @Imphal #1 : Gallery
  • Project Associate @ CSE, Assam Univ
  • Understanding schizophrenia
  • Advancement in Multi Objective Optimization
  • When will women in voter list increase ?
  • Making 2 plus 2 is equal to 5
  • Changing face of drug menace
  • Scientist of Manipur: Jayanta Manoharmayum
  • 25 yrs since Atal Vajpayee visit to RIMS
  • 4 Lakhs donated to support (L) Maipak Family
  • Clarification: Guwahati Meet on Humanitarian
  • Start UPSC prep after 12th for success
  • Tips to avoid melting makeup in summer
  • Giving a big solid push to ST demand
  • Time to come clean
  • Sajibu Cheiraoba: 1 occasion, 2 narratives #3
  • Khongjom Day @Khebaching #2 : Gallery
  • A year of hostilities
  • Licypriya Kangujam to travel to Italy
  • Declining moral standards in public life
  • Healthy democracy with independent media
  • Why endangered species matter to us
  • Significant Guwahati meeting : 1st visible step
  • The Pallel story
  • Aftermath of ferocious hailstorm #2 : Gallery
  • Ukhrul: Climate change grip on water supply
  • Commemoration of World Eld's Deer Day
  • Indo-Naga Talks (From 2012) :: Timeline
  • "ST status for Meetei" at Hiyanglam
  • Dance of democracy, a miracle in making !
  • Learn to look 10/20/30 years hence
  • The zero FIR, zero lesson
  • 'Ishanou' Selection @ Cannes #1: Gallery
  • MOU signed: MTI-HUB & KIIT-TBI & SAbF
  • Lament of the Mourning Choir :: Poem
  • "ST status for Meetei" at Wabagai
  • RSS-BJP fracas
  • Trials for Canoe Slalom World Cup
  • Poser from a villager says it all Kamjong
  • The cover-up effort
  • Birth Centenary of Jananeta Irabat, 1996 : #2
  • Manipuri women in the arena of politics
  • "ST status for Meetei" at Assam
  • Aimee Baruah at red carpet of Cannes
  • National Defence Academy Exam 2024
  • How digital media changed communications
  • Manipur stands scandalised
  • All eyes on UP battle
  • Descent of Radha-Krishna #32: Download
  • Riots to a shrine- Ram Mandir of Ayodhya
  • Handle with care. F.R.I.E.N.D.S inside!
  • The Power of Poppy - 31 :: Poem
  • Celebrate the journey !
  • Career counselling : A life guidance tool
  • Scientist of Manipur: Amom Ruhikanta
  • Conspiracy, thy name is Kuki !
  • "ST status for Meetei" at Thounaojam
  • Ket Meth New Album "Ghost Stories"
  • World Hypertension Day
  • International Day of Families
  • Let the rule of law prevail
  • When donation becomes obligatory demand
  • Tourism of Manipur through Gastronomy
  • Beyond Eternity :: Poem
  • Patriarch subjugation on women
  • Celebrate Manipuri Cinema shine at Cannes
  • Training on cultivation of various mushroom
  • Transformative impact of Ayurveda & Yoga
  • War for over a year : Delhi is answerable
  • The logic behind illogical chargesheet
  • Preserving Thang-Ta :: Rare Photos
  • Regarding Human Rights Situation in Manipur
  • World Hypertension Day 2024
  • Article 355 of Constitution of India #3
  • Disinformation campaign touba thengnarey
  • Deeply mourn the demise of Oja Biren Lamba
  • Water Mimosa for sustainable development
  • Publicity drives of educational institutions
  • ED's revolutionary move!!!
  • Malemnganbi Laishram : Science Topper
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2024 #2: Gallery
  • Thokchom Sheityajit : Arts Topper
  • Aiena Naorem : Commerce Topper
  • AISSE 2024 Exam Result- RKM Imphal
  • Gold, new world currency !
  • Milk for hair and skin
  • Of illegal immigrants & the larger picture
  • The missive from Kamjong
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024 : Science Topper
  • HSE 2024 : Subject Pass Percentage
  • HSE 2024 : District Pass Percentage
  • HSE 2024 : Candidates with Highest Marks
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024: Science Full Result
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024: Arts Full Result
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024: Commerce Result
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024 : Arts Topper
  • Hr Secondary Exam 2024 : Commerce Topper
  • World Bamboo Congress @Taiwan : Gallery
  • Aftermath of ferocious hailstorm #1 : Gallery
  • Radio E-pao: Manipuri Film OST (130+ song)
  • Cheirao-chingkaba @ Chinga : Gallery
  • Nupi Landa Thaunaphabishing : Full Book
  • A ferocious hailstorm @Imphal : Gallery
  • '365 Days of Chin-Kuki Aggression' : Gallery
  • Athoubasingi Numit #2 : Gallery
  • National Science Teacher workshop
  • Scientists of Manipur : Laishram Ladu Singh
  • Id-ul-Fitr @Hatta #2 : Gallery
  • Children Camp @JNMDA Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • Sajibu Cheiraoba Chak Katpa #2 : Gallery
  • Scientists of Manipur : Laitonjam Warjeet
  • Community seed bank @Umathel : Gallery
  • Scientists of Manipur : Ngangkham Nimai
  • Kenedy Khuman (Singer) : Gallery
  • GHOST of PEACE :: Download Booklet
  • List of Kings of Manipur: 33 - 1984 AD