The delimitation and NRC issues in Manipur

K Timothy Zimik *

DELIMITATION BASED ON CENSUS 2001 AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREA

As per the census of 2001, the total population of Manipur is 22,93,896. Out of this, the four Imphal valley districts have population of 14,11,766 which comes to 61.54% whereas the hill districts of Manipur have a population of 8,82,130 which works out to 38.46%. There are 60 legislative Assembly Constituencies (seats) in Manipur – 40 seats for Manipur valley and 20 seats for the hill areas.

The Scheduled Caste population is mainly concentrated in the districts of Thoubal, Imphal East and Imphal West having one reserved seat. The State of Manipur has a total geographical area of 22,327 square kilometres. The valley has a total area of 2,238 square kilometres comprising the four districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur and Thoubal and is occupied mainly by the Meitei community, whereas the remaining 20,089 square kilometres comprising the five hill districts of Churachandpur, Ukhrul, Tamenglong, Chandel and Senapati are occupied mainly by the Naga and Kuki-Zo tribes.

From the tables, it is seen that the average population per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 35,294 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of hill areas is 44,107. The tables demonstrate that the Imphal valley is over-represented, whereas some hill districts are under-represented in the Manipur legislative Assembly.

Further, the average area per Assembly Constituency of the Imphal valley is 56 square kilometres, whereas the hill areas have 1004 square kilometres per Assembly Constituency. Chandel and Ukhrul districts have 1657 sq. kms. and 1515 sq. kms. average area per Assembly Constituency respectively.

The huge geographical size of the hill areas, physical continuity, extreme remoteness of villages, marginalization hill people, closeness to the unregulated porous international border, and difficult mountainous terrains should also be taken into account for re-drawing and re-adjustment of legislative Assembly Constituencies to ensure that the hill tribes of Manipur are proportionately represented in the Manipur Legislative Assembly.

While finalizing the delimitation process in J & K, the Election Commission has taken into account the population, “constituencies’ practicality, geographical compatibility, topography, physical features, and means of communication available”.

The average population of the entire State of Manipur per Assembly Constituency is 38,232. As indicated above, the Imphal valley has 61.5% of the State population having 40 Assembly seats. But this works out to 66.7% of the total Assembly seats of the State. Whereas the hill areas have 38.5% of the State population, but they have only 20 seats which works out to 33.3% of the total Assembly seats. Therefore, the 61.5% of the valley population should have only 37 Assembly seats and the 38.5% of the hill population must have at least 23 Assembly seats.

If we do this exercise, the revised average population per Constituency of hill areas comes to 38,353 (8,82,130 ÷ 23) as against the revised average population of 38,156 (14,11,766 ÷ 37 ) per Constituency in the case of the valley. This tallies with the above-mentioned average population of 38,232 of Manipur per Constituency. Thus, if the re-drawing and re-adjustment of Constituencies in Manipur is done on the basis of 2001 census, then the hill districts should have 23 legislative Assembly seats instead of the existing 20 seats.

The above discussions show that the Assembly seats of 3 hill districts of Ukhrul, Chandel and Senapati should increase by one seat each. Let us take the case of Chandel district for illustration purpose. The average population per Assembly Constituency of Chandel district is 59,164 whereas the average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 35,294.

The difference per Assembly Constituency between Chandel district and the Imphal valley is 23,870 (59,164 – 35,294). Chandel district has two Assembly seats. Thus, the excess population available for additional seat works out to 47,740 (23,870 x 2) in the case of Chandel. If this exercise is carried out in the cases of Ukhrul and Senapati districts, Ukhrul district has 34,896 excess population and Senapati district has 71,856.

The total excess population for additional seats of these three districts comes to 1,54,492 (47,740+34,806+71,856) resulting in the average population per Assembly seat of 51,497 which is much higher than the average population of 35,294 per assembly seat of Imphal valley areas.

Out of total population of 2,23,778 of these three sub-divisions, the Registrar General of India included the population of 1,27,108 in the 2001 census on estimate basis (39.16%). Thus, the population of 96,670 (2,23,778 – 1,27,08) from Mao-Maram, Paomata & Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district was excluded from the 2001 census which resulted in the loss of two Assembly seats.

The other three sub-divisions of Senapati district (inhabited by the Kukis, Nepalis and Nagas) had a population of 1,56,513 = Sadar Hills West (60,945) + Sadar Hills East (51,438) + Saitu Gamphazol (44,130). In the 2001 census, the Census Authority finally recorded the adjusted population of Senapati district at 2,83,621 having 6 Assembly seats. If a comparison is made, the Bishnupur district having only a population of 2,08,368 has the same number of 6 Assembly seats.

RESISTANCE TO DELIMITATION EXERCISE BASED ON 2001 CENSUS

All the major political parties and civil social organizations located in the Imphal valley have strongly opposed the delimitation exercise based on the 2001 census with the argument that the 2001 census figures are erroneous as there is abnormal population growth in nine sub-divisions of hill districts. The Census Authority of India had officially notified the census 2001 after adjusting the population figures of Mao-Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district.

There were no major rectifications in other sub-divisions. Based on 2001 census, the State of Manipur headed by these Imphal based leaders has been conducting its business and administration for years without any complaint from any quarter. While receiving the revenues and funds from the Centre, these political parties and CSOs have not opposed the census of 2001.

Further, based on the population census of 2001, the Government of India and the Government of Manipur had conducted Parliamentary, Assembly, district council and local civic elections peacefully without difficulties. It is only when the delimitation exercise to be carried out based on the population census of 2001 that these Imphal based parties have raised hue and cry against it.

Due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census, the delimitation exercise based on 2001 census has not been carried out in Manipur so far. The 2011 census is the latest census available. No census is undertaken for 2021 due to Covid-19 pandemic. The next census will be 2031. If we consider the latest census of 2011 for delimitation purpose , the result will be as follows:

As per the office of the Registrar General of India 2011 census and Economic Survey Manipur-2014-15, the total population of Manipur is 28,55,794 including the population of Mao Maram, Paomata and Purul sub-divisions of Senapati district. Out of this, the Imphal valley has a population of 16,33,672 (57.20%) and the hill areas have the population of 12,22,122 (42.80%).

The average population per Assembly Constituency of Imphal valley is 40,842 whereas in the case of hill districts, it comes to 61,106. If delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of census 2011, the hill districts should get at least 6 more additional Assembly seats. The additional seats to hill districts have emerged from the officially recorded 2011 census.

The Government of India had completed the delimitation exercise in the case of Jammu and Kashmir but the States of Manipur, Assam, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh had been omitted from the purview of the Delimitation Commission vide Notification dated 30/03/2021. Vide Office memorandum dated 19th July, 2022, the Government of India decided to initiate delimitation exercise in the States of Assam and Manipur based on 2001 census.

Following such instructions, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has completed the delimitation exercise of Parliamentary and Assembly Constituencies of Assam as per Section 8A of Representation of the People Act, 1950 and 2001 census figures are used for this purpose. In Assam, there are multiple unresolved problems such as controversial NRC exercise, illegal immigration issue, etc. and yet, the ECI has initiated and completed the delimitation exercise in Assam. However, the Centre had abandoned the delimitation exercise in Manipur due to the stiff opposition against the use of 2001 census.

REASONS FOR INCREASE OF POPULATION OF HILL AREAS

There are some reasons for the increase of population in some sub-divisions of hill districts.

The reasons are as follows:

(a) The Naga hill districts were seriously affected by the prolonged armed conflict between the India’s Armed Forces and the Nagas. Thus, there was no proper census taken in these hill areas. Many of the villages of these districts are so remotely located and are not easily accessible. The census officials did not visit these remote villages to count the population in those years. Many people were left out from the population census.

(b) The extension of Ceasefire Agreement entered between the Government of India and National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) of 1997 beyond Nagaland was violently opposed and resisted by the dominant valley-based community leading to the forced migration of hill people from the Imphal valley to their hill areas. When the violent agitation against the said Ceasefire Agreement was at its height, the Nagas residing in the Imphal valley went back to their own places in hill areas. Many of these people did not go back to Imphal valley.

(c) It was only after the Ceasefire Agreement of 1997 entered between the Government of India and NSCN-IM that security, law and order situation improved in these hill districts and the census exercise of 2001 could be taken more properly and accurately. It is likely that the population of hill areas will further increase if proper head count is undertaken in all the remote villages of Naga areas.

(d) Another very important reason for the increase in the population of these districts is on account of poverty, under-development, low mortality and high illiteracy. Unlike the more educated and advanced sections of the society, there is no family planning in these poor tribal areas. The tribal families in the hill areas have 5 to 6 children or even more as a norm.

(e) Moreover, the migration of people from other areas to these hill sub-divisions are taking place on account of better business and employment opportunities available in some areas.

(f) The Naga-Kuki conflict of 1992-1997 forced so many people to migrate to safer places of some hill stations on permanent basis. Similarly, the present Meitei-Kuki-Zo armed conflict will see people moving to the safer places on permanent basis.

DELIMITATION, ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS & NRC

As far as illegal immigrants included in the population census and false / fictitious entries in the census record are concerned, it is the duty and responsibility of the Governments of India and Manipur to identify such people and remove such entries from the census record. All the political parties and the Imphal valley-based CSOs have come out in public that the National Registry of Citizens (NRC) be carried out first and thereafter, the delimitation exercise be undertaken. There is nothing wrong in this assertion.

The question is how serious these Imphal valley-based parties are on this NRC issue! A concerted effort is required to implement NRC in Manipur. Under the collective leadership of the United Naga Council (UNC), Nagas have taken a firm stand to implement NRC in Manipur immediately. However, the NRC exercise should not be linked with the delimitation exercise. Looking at the ground realities, it appears that the NRC is used more as a weapon to stop the delimitation exercise.

If we dive deeper into the NRC issue, then, we will see the real challenges facing us. There is the issue of treatment to be given to the illegal immigrants particularly who came from Myanmar to Manipur before 1951 and after 1951. Without going into the question of who brought them to Manipur in the first place and protected them, these illegal immigrants have been entering Manipur continuously for ages and have settled in Manipur - illegally and permanently.

From the public and media discussions, it is seen that a view has emerged that those people who had entered Manipur prior to 1951 to be treated as ‘permanent residents’ of Manipur and those people who entered Manipur after 1951 (the base year) to be treated as illegal immigrants. Some parties and leaders are advocating 1961 to be the base year for this purpose.

It is the Government of India to decide whether to carry out NRC or not. The GOI has just the intention. Nothing more. Despite the opposition to the 2001 census for delimitation purpose in Manipur by the Imphal valley-based political parties and civil social organizations, court orders and the demand for NRC, the GOI has not taken any action in the last 22 years plus to identify those illegal immigrants and deport them.

The point raised here is that the identification, imprisonment or deportation of illegal immigrants should be a continuous process under the existing laws such as the Foreigners Act, 1946, the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 and the Citizenship Act, 1955 (amended many times). The illegal immigrants must be imprisoned or deported under the Foreigners Act, 1946, and the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920. This should have been done long ago.

According to Indian law, the illegal immigrants are not refugees, but illegal aliens. India is not signatory to the 1951 refugee UN Convention. India does not have a law to define a refugee. If a migrant or a foreigner is officially granted a refugee status, then such a person is to be considered as refugee in India. India grants refugee status on a case-by-case and ad-hoc basis.

The NRC exercise is to be in addition to the existing laws to stop illegal immigrants entering Manipur, identify such people and deport them. It is becoming very clear that the GOI is not in a position to undertake the NRC exercise in Manipur. This is the harsh reality facing Manipur whether one likes it or not.

Considering the Manipur’s recurring ethnic armed conflicts, the complexity of the issues involved, India’s geo-politics of regional dominance involving the North-East India, Myanmar and its Chin state and Sagaing Region, ASEAN and China, there will be no NRC for many years to come in Manipur. As things stand, the argument put forward by the Imphal-based political parties and CSOs that the NRC be carried out first before the delimitation exercise is not wellfounded.

The NRC should be carried out in Manipur immediately without further delay whether the delimitation takes place or not. But the problem is that no genuine attempts have been made to implement the NRC in Manipur. The anger and the protests we see today are directed against the impending delimitation exercise and not against the non-implementation of NRC. This is the tragedy.

For the indigenous people of Manipur, the NRC is a serious matter being connected with their land, their identity, their socio-economic and political rights, their culture and heritage and the protection of their people.

The Delimitation Act, 2002 is the law enacted by the Parliament to carry out delimitation in the entire country based on the published 2001 census. When the said 2001 census is accepted and used for all other purposes, but rejecting the same for the delimitation exercise is unfair. The parliamentary and assembly seats are frozen until 2026.

The next delimitation exercise will be carried out on the basis of first census taken after the year 2026 i.e. the census 2031. The delimitation exercise carried out on the basis of 2001 census was completed in 2008 in other states, whereas the delimitation exercise caried out on the basis of 1971 census under the Delimitation Act, 1972 was completed in 1976. Such exercise took 4 to 6 years.

The next delimitation exercise for the entire country is likely to be completed in the year 2036. This means that, if no delimitation exercise takes place on the basis of 2001 census in Manipur, the districts of Ukhrul, Senapati and Chandel will continue to be underrepresented for more than three decades.

The issue of whether the delimitation exercise based on 2001 census should be carried out or not in Manipur had been hotly contested before the Guwahati High Court and the Supreme Court of India. On 21-08-2014, the Apex Court dismissed all related cases upholding the Notification datedth February, 2008 deferring the process of delimitation for the states of Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland.

The latest case being the Writ Petition(s) (Civil) No(s). 357/2022 filed before the Supreme Court by the Delimitation Demand Committee. In its order dated 17-03-2025, the Supreme Court of India has directed the Centre that “ The earlier orders shall be complied with within a period of three months from today. Re-list in the week commencing 21-07-2025”. The Supreme Court of India will definitely take into account all the arguments and points put forward by the Union of India, the respondents and the petitioners and will pass the final order. The order of the Supreme Court will be binding on all the parties.

For the limited purpose of delimitation exercise, the population census figures published by the Census Authority alone are used to arrive at the above conclusions regardless of the outcome whether it favours one group or the other group.

CONCLUSION

The hill people of Manipur have been unjustly deprived of their legitimate right of equitable representation in the state legislative assembly, and therefore, the delimitation exercise of redrawing and re-adjustment of the legislative assembly constituencies of Manipur must be carried out judiciously on the basis of published census record so that the grievances of the hill people of being under-represented in the Manipur assembly are addressed to and the big divide between the Imphal valley and the hills of Manipur are bridged to a great extent.

This Article was published in The Sangai Express in 22/02/2023.
This is the updated version.

The views expressed are the Author’s personal views