Manipur's crisis : Leadership failure and the road to reconciliation

Dipak Kurmi *

The resignation of Manipur Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh on February 9, 2025, came at a moment of acute political and social distress in the State. For 21 tumultuous months, Manipur has been engulfed in ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities, a crisis that has claimed over 250 lives and left deep scars on the State's social fabric.

While Biren Singh’s departure marks the end of his controversial tenure, it raises fundamental questions about governance, federalism, and the role of National politics in exacerbating regional strife.

The ethnic violence, which erupted in May 2023, stemmed from a contentious Court ruling favoring the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, a designation that would provide them with benefits akin to those already enjoyed by the Kuki-Zo community. The judgment intensified pre-existing tensions, as the Meiteis and Kuki-Zo communities clashed over land, resources, and cultural identity.

Far from adopting a reconciliatory approach, Biren Singh’s administration was perceived as partisan, aligning itself closely with the Meitei majority. The State machinery, rather than quelling the unrest, appeared to exacerbate it. Reports of police stations being raided, arms looted, and law enforcement agencies failing to act impartially highlighted the breakdown of governance in Manipur.

The crisis in Manipur is emblematic of deeper structural issues that plague India’s North Eastern States, a region marked by its multi-ethnic composition, porous international borders, and history of insurgencies.

While the BJP-led Central Government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often touted its achievements in the region - emphasizing connectivity, development, and investment - Manipur's situation tells a different story. Despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s claim that the North-East is transforming from a region of "terrorism and corruption" to one of "development and progress," the persistent unrest in Manipur underscores the fragile nature of this transformation.

Biren Singh’s tenure will be remembered for his failure to act as a unifying leader during one of the most divisive periods in Manipur’s history. Accusations of his complicity in inciting violence against the Kuki-Zo community have tarnished his legacy. Leaked audio tapes, allegedly implicating him in instigating attacks, have been submitted to the Supreme Court for forensic verification.

Preliminary findings by Truth Labs Forensic Services indicate a 93% probability that the voice in these tapes belongs to Biren Singh. If corroborated by the Central Forensic Science Laboratory, these revelations could have profound political repercussions, not just in Manipur but across India.

The BJP high command’s reluctance to remove Biren Singh earlier - despite mounting evidence of his inability to restore peace - points to a troubling dynamic within the party. It appears that Singh's role in consolidating the Meitei vote under the umbrella of Hindutva politics outweighed the immediate need for peace and reconciliation.

This strategy, however, backfired spectacularly, as dissent grew within the BJP’s State unit. Party MLAs openly criticized Singh’s leadership, and key allies, including the National People’s Party withdrew support. The Opposition Congress, seizing the opportunity, prepared to move a no-confidence motion against the Government, further destabilizing Singh’s position.

The violence in Manipur is not merely an ethnic conflict; it is a manifestation of systemic governance failures, socio-economic disparities, and geopolitical challenges. The State’s 390-km border with Myanmar, only 10 km of which is fenced, has long been a conduit for illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and the flow of sophisticated arms.

The BJP has frequently blamed Kuki-Zo tribes for harboring infiltrators from Myanmar, a narrative that has further polarized the communities. Representatives of the Kuki-Zo, however, argue that the Government has exploited this issue to justify actions that deepen their marginalization.

Drug trafficking, in particular, is a critical issue that fuels the crisis. The Golden Triangle - comprising Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand - is one of the world’s largest opium-producing regions, and Manipur’s proximity to this area makes it a hotspot for narcotics smuggling. The proceeds from this illicit trade are believed to benefit powerful political and economic interests, raising questions about the State’s ability to address the problem impartially.

Biren Singh’s resignation, while necessary, is unlikely to be a panacea for Manipur’s woes. The State is now at a crossroad, and its future hinges on the ability of political leaders and civil society to rebuild trust between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. Central rule under the Governor, as some have suggested, may provide a temporary respite, but it is not a sustainable solution.

A more viable path lies in decentralizing governance and granting greater autonomy to Manipur’s hill regions, where many Kuki-Zo and other tribal communities reside. Such measures could address longstanding grievances related to resource allocation, cultural preservation, and self-determination. However, the BJP-led Central Government has historically been reluctant to pursue such reforms, particularly when they conflict with its economic and political interests.

Efforts to restore peace must also include robust measures to combat drug trafficking and arms smuggling. Strengthening border security, cracking down on corruption, and fostering regional cooperation with Myanmar and other neighboring countries will be crucial. Additionally, the role of the Army and Assam Rifles, which have been deployed to maintain peace, must be carefully calibrated to avoid further alienating local populations.

At its core, the crisis in Manipur is a human tragedy. The loss of lives, destruction of property, and erosion of trust have left deep wounds that will take years to heal. The scars are not only physical but psychological, as communities grapple with the trauma of violence and displacement.

Rebuilding Manipur will require visionary leadership capable of transcending ethnic divides and addressing the root causes of the conflict. This includes not only resolving the immediate crisis but also fostering an inclusive narrative that celebrates the State’s rich diversity. The federal Government must take a more active role in facilitating dialogue, providing resources for reconstruction, and ensuring accountability for those responsible for perpetuating the violence.

Manipur’s crisis is a stark reminder of the fragility of India’s democratic and federal institutions in the face of deep-seated ethnic and political tensions. The State’s journey toward peace and reconciliation will be long and arduous, but it is a journey that must be undertaken - for the sake of its people and for the broader stability of the region. The question now is whether the political will exists to take the bold and necessary steps to secure a better future for Manipur.