Manipur: A jewel under siege
- Understanding the crisis and seeking solutions -

Dipak Kurmi *

For the past 17 months, Manipur has remained in the National spotlight, a State grappling with a deep-rooted crisis that erupted into widespread violence following a Manipur High Court order on March 27, 2023.

While the Court order was the immediate trigger, the seeds of discontent were sown decades ago, with historical tensions and mistrust shaping the current landscape of unrest. The demand for an Inner Line Permit System, which started over two decades ago, can be seen as the beginning of the State’s descent into instability, further exacerbated by socio-political and ethnic tensions.

The Trigger: Court Order and Historical Mistrust

The demand for an Inner Line Permit System gained momentum in Manipur over twenty years ago, highlighting a growing sense of insecurity and mistrust between communities in the State. This culminated in the controversial passing of three Bills in the Manipur Legislative Assembly in August 2015, which were met with violent protests in Churachandpur, leading to the tragic death of nine people in police firing.

It took 632 days, after several rounds of negotiations between the Government and multiple stakeholders, to bury the bodies of those killed.

Peace seemed to have returned to Manipur after these incidents. For nearly a decade, the State witnessed substantial progress, with improvements in socio-economic development that offered hope for a brighter future. However, the fragile peace was shattered once again on May 3, 2023, when violent clashes erupted between the Meitei and Kuki communities, plunging Manipur back into a cycle of violence that continues to flare up sporadically.

A Small State with Strategic Importance

Despite its small size, with a population that accounts for only 0.1 per cent of Delhi’s and 0.15 per cent of Mumbai’s populations, Manipur holds immense strategic and economic significance. The State, nestled in the North East of India, serves as a crucial geo-strategic and geo-economic link for the country, particularly in India’s Act East Policy. It is a land bridge connecting India to Southeast Asia and the ASEAN region, making it a vital player in regional diplomacy and economic outreach.

The ongoing violence has not only caused immense hardship for the people of the State but has also drawn attention to Manipur’s broader role in India’s foreign policy and regional stability. Understanding the complexities of the situation is essential, not just for the sake of the State’s people, but for its broader implications for India’s strategic interests in Southeast Asia.

Disinformation and Weaponisation: Fueling the Conflict

One of the most challenging aspects of the current crisis is the role of disinformation in fueling violence.

False and doctored videos, along with selective depictions of incidents, have become potent weapons in escalating tensions between communities. From the Anglo-Kuki War Memorial being set on fire to the discovery of the decapitated body of a woman in a suitcase, these half-truths and manipulated narratives have triggered cycles of retaliation and unrest.

In contrast, there have also been videos that depict the harsh realities of the conflict, such as the viral footage of two women being paraded on the streets and the ghastly images of point-blank shootings and decapitations.

These visuals, along with word-of-mouth stories (which are often exaggerated or untrue), have inflamed anger in both the Meitei and Kuki communities. Every false or partially true narrative escalates tensions, making it increasingly difficult for security forces to contain the situation.

The mass weaponisation of Manipur’s society has been another deeply worrying trend. Beyond the looting of weapons and ammunition from police armories, armed groups like the Arambai Tengol, Pambei led United National Liberation Front, other valley-based insurgent factions, and Kuki militants flaunt their firepower openly, moving with impunity.

The easy availability of weapons from neighboring Myanmar has worsened the situation, making violence a constant threat. Recent videos showing large artillery guns being used, alongside improvised mortars, rockets, and locally made “pumpis,” paint a grim picture for both security forces and the general populace.

Regional Turmoil: Impact of Myanmar and Bangladesh

The instability in Manipur is compounded by the ongoing conflict in neighboring Myanmar and the growing influence of radical groups in Bangladesh. The Myanmar Army has lost control of significant portions of the region bordering Manipur and Mizoram, which has led to a large influx of refugees, particularly into Mizoram and, to a lesser extent, Manipur.

The situation is further complicated by the possibility of North East India’s insurgent groups finding renewed support and safe havens in Myanmar and Bangladesh, particularly in areas where radicals have influence.

The role of Central security forces—primarily the Indian Army, Assam Rifles, and paramilitary units like the CRPF—has been pivotal in containing the violence. These forces have been involved in evacuating people to safety, setting up relief camps, recovering looted weapons, arresting militants, and dismantling bunkers, all under conditions that are often hostile and precarious.

Although the State police initially faced criticism, they have now established a working relationship with Central forces and are playing a key role in maintaining order.

A Complex Political Landscape

At the core of the crisis is the demand by the Meitei community for Scheduled Tribe status and the counter-demand by the Kuki community for a Separate Administration, now escalating into a call for Union Territory status. Both demands are fraught with complications.

Granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Meiteis would exacerbate tensions with other groups, particularly the Nagas, and could lead to even greater unrest. On the other hand, acceding to the Kuki demand for a Union Territory could encourage similar demands across the North East, including in Nagaland, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh.

It is critical for both communities to come to the negotiating table and seek a pragmatic solution. Civil society groups, women’s organisations, village elders, youth groups, and even armed cadres must reflect on the progress Manipur had made prior to May 3, 2023. The State had been on a path of socio-economic development, which now seems a distant dream due to the ongoing violence.

A Path Forward

Restoring normalcy in Manipur will require concerted efforts from both the people of the State and the Central Government. While the immediate focus must be on stopping the violence, longer-term solutions must address the underlying grievances of both the Meitei and Kuki communities.

The Centre must tread carefully in responding to demands, ensuring that any decisions do not spark further unrest in the broader North East region. At the same time, the people of Manipur must come together to rebuild trust and engage in meaningful dialogue to secure peace.

Manipur’s strategic importance as the linchpin of India’s “Act East” policy cannot be overstated. The State serves as a critical gateway for India’s outreach to ASEAN, Quad countries, and other Nations in Southeast and East Asia. Manipur, known as the “Jewel of India,” has a rich cultural and historical legacy dating back to the reign of King Garib Nawaz in 1724. It remains an integral part of India’s National identity and aspirations.

In these trying times, the people of Manipur must be at the forefront of efforts to restore peace and prosperity to their land. It is only through dialogue, understanding, and cooperation that Manipur can once again embark on its path to glory and become a shining example of development in the North East region. The State and its people deserve not just National attention, but the support and prayers of every Indian.