TODAY -

Exit poll predictions
- The People's Chronicle Editorial :: June 04, 2024 -



WITH casting of votes in the seven-phase general elections to the 18th Lok Sabha spanning over six weeks finally over, everyone is now waiting eagerly for results of the election, which will be known when the vote count commences from 8 am on June 4.

The five-yearly electoral exercise of electing representatives by the people to the lower house of Indian parliament, which was carried out from April 19 to June 1, had seen as many as 8,360 candidates in the fray across 543 parliamentary constituencies.

Among many other things, the election to the 18th Lok Sabha is sure to harken in the days to come as an electoral exercise which started off on low note but slowly built up to a crescendo much to the surprise of everyone.

So, when all the exit polls projected more than a comfortable majority win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which will ensure a third term in office for Prime Minister Narendra Modi; Indian National Congress (INC) and its allies in the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) have out-rightly rejected the predictions, calling them 'fake' and 'Modi media poll'.

The opposition alliance, which continues to assert confidence of winning at least 295 seats and forming the new government, may be having its own reason for rejecting the exit poll predictions that are mostly in tune with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's election slogan of "ab ki baar 400 paar' for the NDA, with BJP alone winning at least 370 seats.

But it would be hard for anyone to discredit the predictions of BJP and its allies returning to power when all the exit polls regardless of whether they are conducted by India Today, My Axis, Today's Chanakya, ABP-CVoter, Jan Ki Baat, INDIA News-D-Dynamics, Republic TV-P-Marq, Republic Bharat-Matrize, or the Poll of Polls by television channel NDTV are saying the same thing.

Of course, it goes without saying that the predictions made by exit polls are just an indicator of polling trends before the declaration of actual election results.

There have been numerous instances in the past when such predictions were way off the mark.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, all the exit polls predicated that the NDA, then led by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, would win around 240 to 275 seats comfortably but it was the INC and its allies that ultimately came up winning as many as 216 seats to form the government.

Even in the last two general elections, the exit polls were not accurate in the sense that the predictions failed to gauge the magnanimity of the victory of BJP and its allies.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, most exit poll surveys predicted that the NDA government would win 283 seats, but when the results came out, BJP and its allies ended up winning 336 seats while the UPA government managed a meagre 60 seats, even though the exit polls had predicted winning an average of 105 seats.

Similar was the story in 2019, when exit polls predicted the BJP-led NDA government of winning an average of 306 seats, with the INC-led UPA government restricted at 120.

But when the results were declared, NDA went on to winning as many as 352 seats with the BJP alone managing to consolidate 303 seats, while the UPA ended up with just 93 seats with the INC's performance pegged at 52.

Considering all these precedents, it may be hard to brush aside altogether the scepticism surrounding the predictions made by exit polls.

Having said that, ifone feels that the exit poll prediction regarding the Lok Sabha election conducting in Manipur in the midst of an ethnic crisis, which indicate the INC faring better than the ruling BJP is accurate; then why should anyone doubt the predictions of the BJP-led NDA government returning to power at the centre?

This is just a passing thought as the truth would be known soon. It's just a matter of time and little more patience.



* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of e-pao.net. We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.




LATEST IN E-PAO.NET
  • Colonial Knowledge Production in NE #8
  • Violence in Manipur 2023-2025 : Timeline
  • The fight for survival in Manipur
  • A call for unity from displaced voices
  • COVID-19: Update 08 July 2025 : Manipur
  • Dogs Are Staying on the Ground :: Poem
  • Football Tournament at Heinoukhongnembi
  • Condemns Kuki Inpi's Directive
  • Installation Ceremony of Lions Club, Imphal
  • All that can go wrong has gone wrong
  • Manipur peaceful from Delhi's perspective
  • Bashanta Ras @Govindaji #2 : Gallery
  • Hypocrisy & the betrayal of sovereignty
  • Healing with Art for children concluded
  • Manipur : Champions 24th Junior Natl Wushu
  • Path to Becoming a Leader Who Inspires
  • Van Mahotsav 2025, festival of life
  • The Flavours of Life :: Poem
  • Assault on sensibilities of the media
  • Revival of MPP after years of bitter disputes
  • Ougri Lirol :: Part 2 : Ooba Video
  • Jianreilung, Chingamba, Masounii : eMing
  • How Jessami conservation of Nongin
  • Shija Hospitals turns 40
  • COVID-19: Update 06 July 2025 : Manipur
  • The Indomitable Young Souls :: Poem
  • Growing network of drug dealers in country
  • Politics of SoO pact since 2008
  • No takers for disturbance-free education
  • 31st Governor Cup Polo Tournament : Gallery
  • PM welcome to Manipur: Feel the reality
  • Kainkhol wins best Social Message Film Award
  • Distortion of facts: Manipur sports movement
  • Govt services reach Manipur's tribal villages
  • 134th Durand Cup Trophies Flag Off
  • COVID-19: Update 05 July 2025 : Manipur
  • How to take care of oily skin in monsoon
  • First-Ever Tripura Esports Championship
  • Konung Kang Chingba #1 : Gallery
  • Manipur Iskcon's 25th Ratha Yatra 2025
  • Native Threshing machine made for farmers
  • COVID-19: Update 04 July 2025 : Manipur
  • Riso Ejang: Youth-led Transformation
  • Include males too in addressing HPV
  • Whispers from the past :: Poem
  • LPU opens permanent outreach centre
  • Raj Bhavan moving on the right track
  • Speculations over PM Modi's visit to state
  • Colonial Knowledge Production in NE #7
  • Make Yourself Visible to Opportunity
  • Orange bowl: tradition with ecological wisdom
  • 10 ways to keep a kitchen garden disease free
  • Between PR, military mandates & AFSPA
  • Allocation fund for MLALAD Fund during PR
  • Denounces Killing of KNA Deputy C-in-C
  • COVID-19: Update 03 July 2025 : Manipur
  • Cases of fake Aadhaar cards
  • Sincere dealing must for stricter Aadhaar
  • Archaeology: Culture of Manipur : Booklet
  • Wanna be a singer? Get Botox
  • A Central institute in Manipur
  • Nagging in the name of love
  • COVID-19: Update 02 July 2025 : Manipur
  • 'Benefits' of Indira's Emergency
  • Social Stigma :: Poem
  • Inking a peace pact: Why, how: SoO quagmire
  • Van Mahotsav under shadow of declining forest
  • 11th Th Kishan Memorial Lecture : Gallery
  • Manipur crisis & the Left media's blind spot
  • COVID-19: Update 01 July 2025 : Manipur
  • Bombom RK : Musclemania Universe NYC
  • The Grief :: Poem
  • Music Concert & Quiz (MCQ) 2.0
  • SoO agreement unlikely to be scrapped
  • Regulating use of plastic carry bags
  • Mera Houchongba @Kangla #4 : Gallery
  • International Day of Yoga @JNMDA : Gallery
  • BD Behring: The inimitable Gentleman I knew
  • Violence in the name of patriotism : Misguided
  • Daily oral vs long-acting injectable for HIV
  • COVID-19: Update 30 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Smile :: Poem
  • Why was President's Rule imposed ?
  • BJP under pressure to forge unity
  • Kang @Leikai in Imphal : Gallery
  • July Calendar for Year 2025 : Tools
  • COVID-19 : A recurring crisis in Manipur
  • DC Kaith and Forestry in Manipur : Book
  • COVID-19: Update 29 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Longing for Peace :: Poem
  • Black badge, slogan protest by peeved scribes
  • Present the true picture before Delhi
  • Pung-Cholom @ Polo Tournament : Gallery
  • Life: A Journey Through Thought & Being
  • Khongjai Hills & Kuki claim to indigeneity
  • Master Time by Managing Information
  • COVID-19: Update 28 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Pride & patriotism in CCpur's army families
  • The Power of Poppy - 87 :: Poem
  • World Decarbonisation Day: green environment
  • Welcome Home - Nganthoi #2 : Gallery
  • Loss of two precious lives from Manipur
  • Balancing civil liberties with public safety
  • COVID-19: Update 27 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Gender equality & human rights are indivisible
  • Stay hydrated this summer season
  • Silent Half of the Sun :: Poem
  • Connecting the dots in the wishlist
  • Assembly record tampering claims by ex-CM
  • The immortal legacy of Pukhramba Kajao
  • International Day against Drug Abuse 2025
  • COVID-19: Update 26 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Black pottery from Ukhrul - tribal heritage
  • Program on "Mission-Drug Free Campus"
  • Play makes a better world
  • Urgent Appeal to the Honourable MLAs
  • Tribal Empowerment Campaign at CCpur
  • Talk doing the round: PM to come
  • 'Emergency' relief for under-fire BJP
  • Golden Jubilee Art Fair @Imphal : Gallery
  • Declaration: Meetei People Convention, Delhi
  • A Flower Among the Rocks :: Review
  • Book Donation Campaign
  • Improved road connectivity boosts livelihoods
  • To Have Great Dreams :: Poem
  • COVID-19: Update 25 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Regret vs Sorry: Technical & moral insight
  • Cocktail of inept Govt, selfish people
  • State trailing others in cleanliness
  • Colonial Knowledge in NE India #6
  • UHI effect & rising temperatures in Manipur
  • Frequent road blockades cripple economy
  • COVID-19: Update 24 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Unite Health with Community health services
  • NSU, Imphal, tops IIRF Ranking 2025
  • Endless conflict :: Poem
  • Pak nobel pish prize for Trump
  • May 3, 2023 - June 24, 2025: Failure of Delhi
  • Hotter days, sudden rainfall no more a rarity
  • "The Great June Uprising" #2 : Gallery
  • How to Build a Career, Lead with Purpose
  • 2nd Foundation Day- Karnataka Meitei Assn
  • COVID-19: Update 23 June 2025 : Manipur
  • NSCN-IM Amnesty threatens to isolate it
  • Sunset :: Poem
  • Intl Yoga Day for a healthier environment
  • Of clogged drains and plastics
  • Poor roads testify Govt indifference
  • Welcome Home - Nganthoi #1 : Gallery
  • The Silent Erosion of Manipuri Language
  • Design health services around people
  • Serene Hills Host Inspiring Int'l Yoga Day
  • COVID-19: Update 22 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Chopper services between Senapati & Imphal
  • High Court Judges interacted with convicts
  • Redyeing the Fabric :: Poem
  • Differences yet to be resolved stand
  • Border fencing rage as solution eludes
  • Radio E-pao: 14 new songs updated
  • Climate Adaptive Agroforestry
  • Manipur overlooked demographic shifts
  • Young designers shine on Fashion Stage
  • COVID-19: Update 21 June 2025 : Manipur
  • International Day of Yoga at Lamphelpat
  • International Day of Yoga at JNMDA
  • The Power of Poppy - 86 :: Poem
  • Keishampat Lairembi Haraoba #1 : Gallery
  • Crisis in Manipur's Contemporary Education
  • Best 8 Performances in Manipuri Cinema
  • Identity: Caught between China & India ?
  • COVID-19: Update 20 June 2025 : Manipur
  • To The Father Who Listens :: Poem
  • How does net suspension affect youths ?
  • Targeting farmers to cripple state's economy
  • The virus is back and spreading
  • Who is afraid of Manipur ?
  • A threatened lily growing at Shirui Hills
  • World Environment Day in Manipur : Gallery
  • Ambubachi Mela at Maa Kamakhya
  • COVID-19: Update 19 June 2025 : Manipur
  • Dolls made from repurposed vegetable refuse
  • Condemns Attack on Farmer & Killing
  • Abhorrent politics of SoO
  • Police arrogance on harmless drivers
  • "The Great June Uprising" #1 : Gallery
  • UK Meetei diaspora run for Myanmar : Gallery
  • Thang-Ta Day @Khuman Lampak #3 : Gallery
  • 50 years of Pebet #2 : Gallery
  • Indo-Naga Talks (From 2012) :: Timeline
  • Protest @Checkon -AT arrest [Jun 9] : Gallery
  • Protests - AT arrest [Jun 8 night] : Gallery
  • Aftermath of flooding @ Khurai #1 : Gallery
  • /li>
  • Flooding at JNIMS Hospital #2 : Gallery
  • North East NSS Festival @ MU : Gallery
  • Trump's tariff legacy & its global echo
  • Flooding Imphal East [31 May] #3 : Gallery
  • Flooding Imphal East [31 May] #2 : Gallery
  • Flooding Imphal East [31 May] #1 : Gallery
  • S Nirupama @Miss Universe : Gallery
  • Protesters to Raj Bhavan [May 25]: Gallery
  • Human Chain @Airport road [May 26]: Gallery
  • Miss Shirui Pageant Contestant: Gallery
  • 48 hrs Bandh: protest security forces: Gallery
  • Protest Rally: Journalist harassment: Gallery
  • HSLC 2025: Full Result (Check Roll No)
  • HSLC 2025: Important Info & Grading System
  • HSLC 2025 : Compartmental candidates
  • HSLC 2025 : Comparative Statement
  • HSLC 2025 : Statistical Abstract
  • HSLC 2025 : District Pass Percentage
  • HSLC 2025 : Govt School Pass %
  • HSLC 2025 : Aided School Pass %
  • HSLC 2025 : Private School Pass %
  • People's Convention on 3rd May #2 : Gallery
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2025 #2: Gallery
  • Riya Khwairakpam : HSE Science Topper
  • Keisham Hannah : HSE Arts Topper
  • Warepam Lidia : HSE Commerce Topper
  • HSE 2025 Result : Science Full Result
  • HSE 2025 Result : Arts Full Result
  • HSE 2025 Result : Commerce Full Result
  • HSE 2025 Information / Abbreviation
  • HSE 2025 Topper : Science
  • HSE 2025 Topper : Arts
  • HSE 2025 Topper : Commerce
  • HSE 2025 : Pass Percentage
  • HSE 2025 : Result Abstract
  • HSE 2025 : Candidates with Highest Marks
  • President's Rule in Manipur : 1967 - 2025
  • Downloadable Manipuri Calendar :: 2025