Manipur election 2017 and politics of blockade and scare campaign

Jalun Haokip *

Trucks lined up at Keithelmanbi (Imphal-Jiribam Road) due to Economic Blockade by UNC on 31st Jan 2017 :: Pix - Gandhi Naorem

With electioneering and campaigning having been intensified for the two-phased Manipur Assembly elections slated to be held on March 4 and 8, the fight is set to be mainly between the ruling Congress party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party at the Centre. Congress party's popularity was already at its lowest ebb when it announced the creation of seven new districts on December 8, 2016. It was aptly described as Ibobi's masterstroke out of despair to regain its lost popularity with an eye on the Assembly elections.

While the issue of Manipur territorial integrity, a highly emotional issue especially for valley people, against the backdrop of Naga Framework Agreement cannot be totally ignored, there's a danger when the issue is politicised for narrow political gains. Except the Naga People's Front which advocates Naga integration as one of its core objectives, all political parties and successive Central governments have repeatedly assured and reassured to protect the territorial integrity of Manipur. Should not this be enough reason to calm down, unless a new development demands otherwise, and instead focus on other pressing or vital issues?

What is the point in political parties engaging in scare campaigns and trading charges and counter-charges on the issue, or let's say the non-issue, when none of them supports Naga insurgent group National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isaac Muivah (NSCN-IM)'s demand for Naga integration or Nagalim, putting all other important issues on the backburner?

One of the main agenda the Congress is banking heavily on for election victory is the much-hyped Naga Framework Agreement signed between the NSCN-IM and Government of India (GoI) on August 3, 2015. As the term suggests, Naga Framework Agreement is only a generic agreement established to guide the process of potential final peace accord while recognising Naga history. It seems to be a far cry from Naga integration at the cost of Manipur's physical boundary.

The Naga Framework Agreement is not as big as what some people assume or claim. If there is something so big in it or anything that guarantees Naga integration why would the Naga apex body, United Naga Council (UNC), obviously out of distress, resort to indefinite blockade for this long in protest against the creation of new districts, which is only for administrative convenience?

At this point it is the resentful UNC, not the Congress or anyone else, which would demand the Central government to disclose the details of the Framework Agreement if the Central government has consented to the demand for Naga integration that would affect Manipur's territorial integrity and if the creation of new districts is against the Framework Agreement. It is not divulged probably for fear of upsetting the Naga public as it contains nothing more than what is already known. The Congress' election campaigns and unabated fiery rhetoric against the BJP on the issue of Naga Framework Agreement indicate that they have no better election agenda to take to the people than this.

The issue of creation of seven new districts and subsequent UNC-sponsored economic blockade along the two National Highways since November 1 last year has overshadowed all other important issues. It has been notoriously politicised and the blame game between the State and Central governments over the issue persists while the general public are at the receiving end.

While the Central government, which has provided security personnel to open the highways and offered more assistance if required, clearly wants the blockade to be lifted, the State government while not utilising the resources at its disposal to open the blockade wants it continued, in a subtle manner, as the Congress party gains political mileage out of the blockade.

Soon after the February 3 Central government-initiated tripartite talk between the Manipur government, Government of India and the UNC, Manipur chief minister Ibobi, in a seemingly carefully crafted strategy to anger the UNC, had an interview with a national magazine wherein he stated that it was agreed that UNC would lift the blockade and the State government would release the two arrested UNC leaders simultaneously.

Angered by Ibobi's statement as expected, UNC, in its public consultation on February 7, resolved to continue with the blockade and accused Ibobi of going to the media against an agreement at the tripartite talk. This must have made Ibobi laugh. Had it not been for Ibobi's media interview regarding the tripartite talk, the UNC would probably have lifted the blockade as expected.

The usually calm and cool Ibobi is seen as smart at stage-managing as long as he sees the benefits of it to cling onto power, regardless of the suffering of the people. The UNC blockade seems to work out well for the chief minister after the suspected stage-managed Ukhrul ambush failed to turn him from 'zero' to 'hero'.

Though the UNC claims to oppose the Congress government tooth and nail, it seems to have fallen into Ibobi's trap. Its stubbornness in continuing the blockade will only propel the Congress government's prospect of returning to power. If the Congress comes back to power after miserable 15 years of its misrule, it would only be to the credit of UNC and Ibobi's mastery in playing politics with people's emotions, nothing else. And Manipur will continue to suffer for the next at least five years.

Whereas the State should not play politics with people's emotions or communal politics, UNC and other Naga leaders should be mindful of the fact that as much as the issue of land, history and identity is close to their hearts and wish their sentiments to be respected, it is also close to the hearts of their neighbouring communities, who also have their own political aspirations and wish their sentiments respected equally.

There is not a single district in Manipur created exclusively for a particular community although there are districts mostly inhabited by a particular community. Bifurcation of a district for administrative convenience does not necessarily stop the Nagas from pursuing their political movement for Naga integration within Naga inhabited areas.

It would be wise on the part of UNC to soften its position or change its strategy on the issue of district creation in larger interest – or else, as already warned by the GoI-Naga peace talks interlocutor RN Ravi, it is running the risk of derailing the Naga peace process and returning Ibobi's government to power. Would it be worth taking the risk?

As is evident, the scare campaign over the triplet issue, or non-issue, of Naga Framework Agreement, territorial integrity and the ongoing economic blockade is used as a smart card just to divert people's attention from the government's failures on other crucial issues, such as development, law and order and governance, among others. The scare campaign will probably backfire and the people will outsmart the smart card when voting early next month.