Will the talks succeed in the absence of Muivah ?

Nirendra Dev *

Focus may shift to Rio and also Atem and R H Raising to deliver

Statesmanship lies in decision making ability. This was a failure junction for leaders such as P V Narasimha Rao and Dr Manmohan Singh. In the case of Rao, the phenomenon became more of a legend when he said - "Not to take a decision is also a decision".

Even the likes of Atal Bihari Vajpayee had their failings. Several key RSS leaders used to complain that Vajpayee had a malady almost taken from Jawaharlal Nehru's book - "Log kya kahengey (What will people say, if we do this or do not do that)".

But with all these comes another political saying -- "Some communities can have three problems - they could be unlucky, their fate could have been screwed and betrayed and they could be nervous". Have the people of Nagaland and chiefly the leaders developed all the three ?

Before we dwell into this question, it may be relevant to reflect that Nervousness also makes a community Silent and worse Agreeable. The best example is 'opposition-less government'. Everyone wants to play safe. So in the entire bargain - the RPP is the only opposition party and a section of local media including 'Nagaland Page' is doing their job.

But it is high time relevant questions are raised vis-a-vis Naga Peace Talks. The mandarins in Delhi try to smile these days to every question one would like to ask them.

The renewed talks with the NSCN-IM resumed on Oct 7. Muivah is not attending the talks due to health issues and a talk team headed by VS Atem is talking to GoI representatives. Insiders say five-six rounds of parleys are over. As per sources nothing much has moved since Oct 7 or even what was last month.

Understandably, contentious issues are being debated and they would include separate Flag, separate Naga Constitution, status of outside Nagas in Nagaland and maybe even issues such as ENPO demands and whether autonomous councils can be worked out in other Naga areas.

Of course, the next obvious query will be - What's new ?

It should not be misconstrued that people engaged are not giving their best. In fact, from both sides there are indications of immense "sincerity".

The Govt of India has tried to come out of the stage of subtle discussions on many fronts. One point that has been made clear is the centre under PM Narendra Modi is committed to the Framework Agreement and its effective and practical implementation. New Delhi also wants that Solution should come in the lifetime of the aging general secretary of NSCN-IM, Thuingaleng Muivah.

But factors like age, failing health and time frame are crucial. If New Delhi wants a Solution by showing respect to the Framework Agreement and that too during the lifetime of Muivah; someone has to take the call.

The onus is on people like A K Mishra, Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio and also probably much more importantly Muivah's lieutenants in the militant organisation. The 10-member delegation is in New Delhi under the leadership of V S Atem, who of course has a credential of his own as former 'army chief', as a hardcore ideologue and also recently named Deputy Ato Kilonser.

Mandarins in Delhi are keenly assessing Atem and find him applying certain restraints on certain issues when it comes to decision making. Their concern is with Muivah not being in a position to take any decision whether the second rung leaders including Atem will take any decision to settle the issue during Muivah’s lifetime or allow the problem to linger till he emerges as the supreme leader?

Will the protagonists now allow Muivah to take the credit for being a peacemaker or die as an underground leader ?

One expert who has handled the 'Naga issue' closely a few years back says - "From both ends, we need the second rung leadership to do their job. From the Govt of India side, Rio has a major role to play and on the other side it would be Atem and the likes of R H Raising."

Even the Govt of India feels that Muivah "deserves" to bring Solution to the Naga issue in his lifetime as the talks process was started by him and Isak Chishi Swu in 1997 with a lot of hopes among Naga people and also for New Delhi.

The sum and substance is - the second rung leaders must appreciate their own responsibilities and hence should not be seen just sitting over the issue. This actually makes things more challenging for Rio now.

For Delhi, time is running out because there are several geo-strategic matters involved vis-a-vis the Modi government's Act East policy and an inherent pressure to focus for a lasting peace in Manipur and also keeping smooth ties with Myanmar and other Himalayan and South Asian neighbours.

The on-going instability and arson in Myanmar and political uncertainty in Bangladesh have forced mandarins from the Home Ministry to exchange notes with their counterparts from Defence and External Affairs lately.

From the Govt of India, a number of experts are on the job. Likes of Ajit Doval, Modi's trusted NSA, handled these issues before. Amit Shah as Home Minister has a freehand from the PMO. And the general refrain from Delhi is - Let the second rung leadership put the ball on track and ensure that the Solution comes in the lifetime of Muivah.

This responsibility is heavily on the Talk Team. They may find delaying the process suitable for the time being. However, they have to realise that 'delaying' certain things will only keep things as a hanging fire where the future of the younger generation will continue to be at stake and who knows what will happen after Muivah.

Let the Solution come as early as possible and let Muivah get the due credit. Nagas are at the crossroads of history. Will they choose the right path is a million dollar question. Naga history says they have missed it many times. Will history repeat itself .... that is a genuine concern?

( Views are personal )