Why should we remain poor ?

Prof E. Bijoykumar Singh *

The latest poverty figures are out. In 2011-12 Manipur had 10.22 lakh people under the poverty line and it worked out to 36.89 percent of the total population. Nearly 37 percent of the population in Manipur cannot meet the basic minimum needs. One out of every three is poor in Manipur . Only Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are worse than us.

From being the worst in 1993-4 we have managed to beat only two states in 2011-12. The poverty lines in terms of monthly per capita expenditure were Rs 1118 in rural and Rs 1170 in urban Manipur. Puducherry had the highest poverty line with Odisha coming last. The former’s poverty line was almost double that of the latter.

What it means is that some basic needs could be fulfilled in Odisha at half the cost at Puducherry. What can be attained with a monthly per capita expenditure of Rs 1118 in rural Manipur can be attained with Rs 695 in rural Odisha . It immediately begs the question- why? How different are the equivalent consumption baskets?

The poverty line varies widely across the states. The average per capita monthly expenditures in 2011-12 were Rs 1334.55 and Rs 1448.91 in rural and urban Manipur respectively. Compare these with rural and urban poverty lines. Their closeness cannot be missed.

What it means is that for many being above the poverty line is notional and they are also highly vulnerable to accidental slips below the poverty line. Just as a little effort could push them above the poverty line, a little mismanagement of their resources could bring them below the line. No wonder government has been accused of directing their interventions towards those just below the line rather than those far below though the latter are more deserving.

Our performance in poverty eradication has turned out to be pathetic, to say the least. In between 2004-5 and 2011-2 the poverty ratio declined by 1percent. We can congratulate ourselves for not joining the trio where poverty has increased instead of falling. All the states where poverty ratio increased during this period namely Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Nagaland belong to the north eastern region.

Among the north eastern region the best performer is Tripura where head count ratio declined from 40.6percent to 14.05percent.What stands out in Manipur is the much faster reduction of poverty during 1993-4 and 2004-5. During that decade poverty ratio declined from 65.1percent to 37.9percent. One should also realise that in 1993-4 Manipur had the highest poverty ratio in India.

That immediately brings up the issue of comparative study of policies during these periods, including the perception of the ruling parties on these key issues. Prior to 1993-4 we used the poverty ratio of Assam as the poverty ratio of all other north eastern states including Manipur.

The usual excuse for this used tobe the small size of national sample surveys samples in these seven states. It is difficult to understand as several techniques appropriate for drawing inference from small samples are available. Own data used to generate very low poverty ratio figures for these states and policy makers must have found it difficult to explain the co existence of backwardness and low poverty ratios.

The use of Assam figures solved that problem showing the co existence of backwardness and high poverty ratios. That was a time when we used to feel uncomfortable fielding questions like – why has urban poverty declined in Manipur? The desirable answer would attribute it to people friendly policies undertaken by the government though the real answer would attribute it to events in Assam. It is only after the publication of Tendulkar Committee report on Poverty that Manipur’s own data are being used to estimate its rural, urban and combined poverty ratio. That shows how difficult it is to study poverty over time using poverty ratio.

What worries us is the emerging political economy of growth .For the last few years construction sector has been the major driver of our state economy. The growth of this sector brought in the centre stage the contractors who have become stinkingly wealthy, not really knowing how to use the wealth. We are yet to see benevolent contractors.

From being the financier of political parties this class decided to come centre stage, in the process doing away with the intermediaries- politicians. Now a large proportion of our politicians have a contractor past. Their simple logic of accumulation gets reflected in state policies and programmes. This has converted politics from service to the most lucrative business and sacrifice has disappeared from our jargon.

Contesting the election is yet another avenue for investment. Percentage share is the mantra and everyone has come to believe it as his birth right. One can actually feed on the system at various levels.The funny thing is everyone dreams to become a politician.

I felt the need to mention these players because our growth has led to increase in unemployment rate and a marginal decline in poverty. The marginal decline in poverty ratio would have been upset by absolute increase in number of people below the poverty line. What is the worth of growth if we become poorer and more and more of our people remain unemployed?

Is not it the time to learn from the experience of more successful states in terms of eradication of poverty and unemployment? Our MLAs should be taken to our next door neighbour Tripura to learn governance. They need to learn the basics rising above party politics, sending them to China, Singapore and Japan would not help much because those countries operate under very different systems.

One cannot push a policy as single-mindedly as in China. It is easier in Singapore and Japan because the level of civic awareness is much higher. Imagine a policeman being fined for using his i-card while off duty. That is Singapore. There is a need to revise Tripura’s traditional place in north eastern politics.

It helped us to do serious introspectionand now it is showing us the way. It has progressed beautifully from politics of migration to politics of inclusive development. I don’t think salvation will come from abroad. It can make it easier only. That will come only when we succeed in generating endogenous drivers of growth.

Poverty is not inevitable. We can do better.