On Bandhs & Blockades

Prof E Bijoykumar Singh *

19-hours general strike called by JCILPS on July 07 2015 :: Pix - Shankar Khangembam

Manipur experienced blockade by the Japanese during last part of the Second World War. Even though it is accepted by international law, it should not be used in the areas where there are no rivals. After Second World War, Economic Blockades were enforced for the first time in 1981 by ANSAM, and it came to be enforced more frequently as a means of articulating their views.

During 1981 to March 2000 there were sixty episodes of National Highway B&B, spread over three hundred and forty days. Its frequency rose and there were seventeen episodes of economic blockades in 2010. During this blockade period the price of essential commodities skyrocketed, for example the greymarket price of petrol increased up to Rs. 250 per liter against the official price of Rs. 50. Justice T Nandakumaarsingh on 10th Dec. 2011 had compared economic blockades in national highways with genocide.

In 1997 the Kerala High Court declared that calling for a bandh by any association, organization or political party and enforcing of that call by it was illegal and unconstitutional. It is so irrespective of whether it was observed with or without violence, irrespective of whether the reason was justified or unjustified. In 2004, the Supreme Court fined the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiva-Sena for organizing a Bandh in Mumbai against bomb blasts in the city.

"Ipathoukok", a voluntary organization had arranged a debate against Bandhs in 1983. The topic of that debate was "Frequent Bandhs in Manipur are not beneficial to the people". Another example of people's disenchantment was the women's rally against Bandhs on 29th August 1999 in Bishnupur and the rally submitted a memorandum to the Government through Deputy Commissioner, Bishnupur "to take necessary action".

The Government of Manipur banned this kind of medium of expression on 28th August 1999 with its Home Department's notice, which was circulated in the next day's newspaper. An underground organization announced a total ban on bandhs or general strikes and education related strikes in Manipur on 15th of May 2003 and reiterated it on 15th of May 2007. The Govt. of Assam had set up a task force in 2013 to explore the feasibility of bringing a suitable legislation to control and regulate bandhs.

The task force recommended calling a bandh to be a punishable offence. Though there is no prescribed way to estimate the loss in terms of money, the sponsors should be made to compensate the government, the public and the private citizen for the loss suffered by them. They also distinguished between bandhs called by lawful and unlawful rganizations.

According to India Risk Survey 2014, corporate India considers 'strikes, closures and unrest' as no. 2 risk with corruption, bribery and corporate fraud as no. 1 risk. In the eastern region the ranking is as follows: terrorism and insurgency, political and governance instability, strikes, closures and unrest. Strikes etc emerged as the biggest risk in govt/PSU.

The ranks of strikes, closures and unrest in corporate risk ranking were as follows: Manufacturing (2),IT/ITES(3),financial services(3), Govt/PSU(1), infrastructure (5),Education(5), security services provider (3),hospitality(5).There was a lull in such activity .

It is also possible that a government more responsive to the demands of the people might have made it redundant. Yet it is again picking up as a popular medium of protest. We never thought B&B would cripple our lives like this. Yet the unexpected has happened and everyone of us is trying to make sense of what is happening around us.

During the last few days, we have gone through so many B&B for various reasons which prompted me to have a relook into the issue of economics associated with them. The impacts appear in Revenue loss, closure of educational institutes, inability of daily labour to find work, plight of patients, dampening effect on tourism and small business and higher exposure of people's life to risk. A loss is the excess of cost over benefit. The calculation is not as straightforward as that of estimating the losses due to an earthquake or flood or a major fire where there is no benefit..

Let us look at the case of Nepal which was hit by a major earthquake in April, 2015. The damage to buildings alone was worth between $3 to $3.5 billion. Indirect losses to the tourism sector and the value of cultural icons are yet to be factored in. Nepal every year earns about $1 to $1.5 billion from tourism and many popular temples which are also major tourist destinations have been damaged. Pakistan lost $107 billion due to terrorism during 2000-2014. The losses were based on the loss of lives, economic opportunities and the damage to the country's infrastructure. There is no benefit and hence calculation of losses is pretty straight forward. But when it comes to B&B many externalities enter and benefits cannot be ignored altogether. Nevertheless, let us look at some simplistic estimates of losses from b&b.

An all India bandh called by NDA and other opposition parties led to a loss of Rs 13000 cr in 2010 almost equal to the annual allocation for national programme for mid day meals in 2012-13.In Nepal a three day national shutdown cost an estimated production loss of Rs 2.22 billion worked out on the basis of loss of workdays with reference to the annual GDP.West Bengal(WB) used to be major state as frequently plagued by bandhs as Manipur.

In 2009 WB had 267 strikes and lockouts against the all India figure of 351.A half day bandh in west Bengal in 2011 was estimated to cost the state economy Rs 804.55 cr based on the assumption that about 74% of daily production was lost due to a half day bandh. In WB it was noticed that most bandhs were on either Friday or Monday. The duration of these bandhs varied from 1 or 2 hours to a maximum of 48 hours. According to an Itanagar based NGO 55 bandhs in Arunachal Pradesh since 2009 cost the state Rs 3000 cr.

The Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Manipur calculated the loss for Manipur at "Rs.1320 crores during three (3) years of study period i.e. 2004 to 2007".As against this, Shri O Biren Singh , retired Director of Economics and Statistics, Government of Manipur calculated the loss as Rs.2,355.39 crores during 01-04 2004 - 08-12-2007.

The calculation was made on the assumptions that the loss per day due to Bandhs and Economic Blockades was Rs.5.57 cr. and Rs.2.17cr. for the year 04-05, Rs.6.38 cr. and Rs. 2.44 cr. for the year 05-06 and Rs.7.35cr. and Rs.2.84cr. for the year 06-07 respectively. The losses per- capita per day due to Bandhs and Blockades were Rs.31, 35 and 39 for the year 04-05, 05-06, and 06-07 respectively.

The Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Manipur had estimated a daily loss of Rs 30 crore in 2010. A Imphal-Moreh bandh was worth Rs 15 crore.

A simple exercise as of now would involve calculating the daily income of Manipur obtained by dividing Rs 18749.32 crore given as estimate of Manipur's GSDP for 2015-16 in the recently presented budget document by 365. It works out to Rs 51.37 crore. The amount lost is obtained by multiplying the number of days of bandh by Rs 51.37 crore. This can be further refined by introducing distribution differentials in population and economic activity.

One has to add to it the value of public and private property damaged, revenue lost, cost of closing of educational institutes in terms of foregone opportunities of learning, losses suffered by daily wage earners, plight of patients, dampening effect on tourism in terms of bookings cancelled and small business struggling with the accumulating inventory and higher exposure of people's life to risk. However, the silver lining is that we learn how to cope with risk. Anticipated events generally do not destabilize our lifestyle.

Even in the case of earthquakes, the losses are not growing that fast because buildings are stronger and constructed with it in mind. Similarly when bandhs occur too frequently, coping measures appear and the ability to go on increases. The growth of insurance markets also makes it easier for people to insure against such loss.

Any comprehensive study of B& B should consider the causal factors, the extent to which they achieve their objectives, their cost both direct and indirect, the process of negotiations, which can serve as a lesson for the future, and the response of the authority. This is exactly what a Ph.D. Scholar in Economics Deptt. is doing under my guidance.

The economic impact constitutes only an aspect out of many. The psychological impact of a B&B in protest against injustice is not the same as that of one organized in the game of one upmanship. The former steels the determination of the people against injustice, which should be an integral part of any civil society. The latter reduces B& B into mockery of people's sentiment. A Bandh in support of ILP is quite different from a bandh organized by a few people on the waiting list of some jobs.

Referring to the estimates of loss due to Bharat bandh a trade unionist reacted

"May I ask the finance minister what is the loss to the country due to 2G, because of the concession of Rs 70,000 cr given to the corporates in the last budget, losses due to non performing assets, the kingfisher issue and nonpayment of income tax "I don't know how the Finance Minister had reacted but for me I would have been too embarrassed to handle this. Social scientist Dhanabir Laishram has rightly pointed out that the means adopted by the public to articulate their grievances are conditioned by the response of the government.

Our long petrol queues whenever a bandh is announced does not reflect any irrational behavior of the consumers. It is a reflection of the quality of governance. If the government is sensitive and responsive to non violent ways of protests the public would have loved to be on dharna and silent processions. An inventory of objectives achieved through non violent means and B&B would clearly show the leaning of the government. This is where the intangible benefits start knocking for recognition.

Regarding the issue of ILP I think all stakeholders need to have a higher sense of responsibility. Political parties should be above one-upmanship. Everyone should do some introspection and the government which is still our elected government should be given some space. There may not be any readymade solution.

I agree that the trust deficit has widened yet there are several issues of propriety in a democracy. Our institutions should be nurtured. Something should be done immediately for the 15 lakh in an ocean of 1.2 billion before the time runs out. A peaceful Manipur is always better than a disturbed Manipur.