Oil Refinery in Manipur?

Lt Col Laishram Lokendra Singh (Retd) *

Shortage of Fuel in Imphal : Petrol pump are closed or operating at lower capacity on July 20 2013 :: Pix - Deepak Oinam

Alas! After more than a month highways are through. No overnight queues for petrol. No rationing. People of Manipur can now breathe a sigh of relief. Thank God, life in Manipur is back to normal. Come to think of it, people can only thank God for it. There was nothing the government or anybody else could do about it.

But the fact is sooner than later God would also be helpless because even if landslide is part of His domain, with bandhs and blockades being called at the drop of a hat, perhaps He would also be not knowing when the next round of bandh/blockade is being called in Karbi Anglong, Dima Hasao, Nagaland, Naga inhabited areas in Manipur and in so called Kuki Land in Manipur. What a pity!

There is an apt story of a man sitting on his bullock cart praying to Hanuman, God of strength for help when his cart got stuck in slush. Hanuman appeared before him and said, "Stupid! Get down from the cart and push it." Moral of the story: we mortals have to find ways and means to help ourselves particularly in Manipur.

Perhaps it is common knowledge now, thanks to media and those who vociferously opposed the idea that an oil company –Jubilant Oil and Gas Pvt. Ltd., has signed MOU with the Centre and State for oil exploration in Manipur. There are 2 blocks - one in Tamenglong and the other in Churachandpur. MOU was signed sometime in November 2010 and work commenced a couple of months thereafter and it is about 2 and half years that the exploration work has been going on. However, how much exploration has been done is anybody's guess.

There are no industries in Manipur. Making money at gun point is no industry. Despite best of efforts by successive governments to woo industrialists to establish a semblance of industry in Manipur, no industrial house dared to step in into Manipur despite the fact that the State has potential for establishing selective industries.

As if God sent, Jubilant suddenly appeared on the scene for oil exploration without the State having asked for it. As it is normal practice in Manipur where people do not 'pause, think, react' just oppose anything and everything that government does, overnight a number of self acclaimed experts sprouted from all over and made a hue and cry that Oil Exploration in Manipur would be a big loss for the State; it must stop forthwith. People also said that this MOU was signed without the free and prior consent of the people; therefore it should be cancelled. At a point of time there was almost tooth and nail opposition to oil exploration with people screaming hoarse: "Go Back Jubilant."

Reportedly Jubilant had established a functional camp near Kambiron village about 10 odd Km from Nungba astride Imphal-Jiribam road where 200 or more people were stationed. It was vacated months ago. Only the government and God know if oil exploration in Manipur is still on or off. If it has actually been called off, then those who opposed it must be jubilant that Jubilant Oil Company has been shown the door.

Environmental impact of oil exploration is a serious issue and there is logic in the argument. However, this is not the first time oil is being explored in this world. Oil industry has made huge strides in safety improvements. It's a different world now. Therefore there has to be internationally accepted norms which the company is bound to follow to ensure hazard is prevented to the optimum level.

Oil exploration in Manipur cannot be an exception to the rule. Nonetheless let's face it there is no such thing in this world as 100% hazard proof. Consider for instance traffic management where the primary aim is smooth flow of traffic and prevention/avoidance of accident, there is the traffic police, road median, traffic sign, one way traffic and what not; yet due to mechanical failure or driver's oversight traffic accidents do occur. In such circumstances answer is to take the injured to the hospital. But to say that people die or get injured in traffic accident, therefore, there should be no traffic, people should stop using vehicle and manufacturing of vehicle must cease altogether; is no logic.

Inherent unspoken selfish motive also evident in this is, "you go and explore oil anywhere else, I couldn't care less where but not in Manipur, however, make no mistake, I want oil for my use in plenty and in time." A wonderful logic. Oil is wealth, not just wealth for producer, but wealth for everyone who uses it. If people oppose oil exploration, then they must also stop using oil.

Barmer District in Rajasthan is part of Thar Desert. Once oil was struck in 2009, the place is turning into a booming oil city. By the same logic if oil is struck in Tamenglong District, entire focus of the country will be in this district. Further if an oil refinery can also be established at an appropriate place within the district, just as a refinery is coming up in Barmer with State's 26% equity stake in HPCL promoted project, Tamenglong would cease to be what it is today.

Let us open our proverbial third eye and carry out a thought experiment of how Manipur would then be. To begin with fuel rationing at petrol pumps, overnight queues will be history as petrol, diesel, kerosene and cooking gas will be regular products among others from the refinery and State can arrange to collect its quota from here. In effect the refinery will more or less become the State's back yard ware house. TDC would still be ferrying oil and gas along the highway but in a different way.

It will not be ferrying in oil and gas into the State but ferrying it out from Manipur to other States. Huge revenue that State will earn will bring financial health of the State to such level that it will instead of begging to Planning Commission, perhaps dictate terms to it. Employment avenues other than recruitment to IRB/MR/police will open up. Contractors will have their work horizon spread further. The list does not end here.

Pre-supposing that God has indeed sent Jubilant Oil and Gas Pvt. Ltd. company for the people of Manipur, it is for us mortals to look ahead, visualize the shape of things to come say a decade hence and work out the preliminaries today. Economic prudence demands that State Govt. step in to take proactive role to work out viable solution to the myriad problems that the company is perhaps facing. Affected people's interest also to be equally addressed so that they do not feel cheated or brow beaten to avoid any untoward development at a later point of time.

Oil exploration is a time consuming affair. Satellite mapping is done followed by geological survey wherein rock samples are collected and laboratory test conducted. Seismic survey is then carried out which is said to be akin to taking ultra sound of earth's surface to narrow down probability of where oil is likely to be found. Final test will however be actual drilling to a depth of 2.5 to 4.5 Km to establish presence of oil.

If oil is struck it will again be subject to determining whether or not it is commercially usable and commercially viable to extract. In Manipur 30 oil wells have been reportedly identified. However, ONGC's success rate is said to be 1 in 7 which means for every 7 oil wells dug, oil is likely to be found in one. By this yardstick if 30 oil wells are dug, actual find may be in 4 or 5 wells. Time line for this process is around 6 to 8 years.

Once oil is struck and it is found to be commercially viable, then establishing infrastructure for next phase of work, i.e. oil extraction will take about 2 to 3 years. As such even if oil exploration is at its initial stage, it will take a decade for oil extraction to begin provided a congenial work environment is ensured by State Govt. Oil Company, sure enough, will not be asking for the moon from the Govt. of Manipur in this context.

Meanwhile, State Govt. can co-ordinate with Union Petroleum Ministry to expedite and facilitate oil exploration in Manipur. Further it can also start its homework that should oil be found in the State what would be the best option for getting it refined in the State itself. Govt. may have to tie up with such companies as Reliance, Essar etc. which run refineries in the country.

Modern civilisation including that of Manipur would collapse in a matter of months if oil stopped flowing. The world is fighting over oil resource and the State is on the threshold of having this resource in its back yard. If State Govt. has the vision and commitment to do it, Manipur can become a "waatta paadaba lam": a land of plenty in the near future. So, why not an oil refinery in Manipur?