Nagalim: Indo-Naga Cease Fire Analysis
- Part 1 -

Naga International Support Centre *

The map of Nagalim says it all and demand for Naga integration :: Pix - TSE

Exploration of policy alternatives/ recommendations and strategies for their Implementation

Naga International Support Centre:

Contents

I. Introduction
II. Achievement
III. Problems with the current approach
IV. Why GOI is interested in Cease-fire
V. What Nagas need to know
VI. Options
VII. Recommendations
VIII. Conclusion

Indo-Naga Cease fire (1997-2009)

I. Introduction:

The historic Indo-Naga peace talks held on 31 July 2007 at Circuit House, Dimapur extended the cease-fire between the Government of India and the NSCN (I-M) for an indefinite period of time, albeit with the focal condition that it is "subject to the progress of the talks". The implication of this agreement is that any slackness on the center's part would result in the talks being called off at "any time". The change in the condition of cease-fire has been acclaimed as a tactical move to put pressure on the Government of India to be on their toes. The two sides till now have held 59 rounds of talks both in India and abroad. However, no headway seems to have been made on the core issues. The objective of this paper is to explore a set of policy alternatives/ recommendations and outline a strategy for implementing them. It is also the objective of this paper to expose the mind of the Government of India.

II. Achievements:

Though the Cease-fire has not brought any substantive progress on the core issues, it has created a conducive ground situation for continued engagement between India and the Nagas represented by the collective leadership. A relatively peaceful law and order and security situation has been prevailing not only within the territory of Nagaland state where cease-fire is formally effective but in the adjoining states as well since the declaration of cease-fire in 1997. The Naga collective leadership has proved to the Government of India and the outside world that Nagas are peace-loving people and want to resolve this long-standing issue peacefully. During this period the collective leadership has explicitly made it clear to the Government of India that resolving this issue will be to their mutual benefit. The Government of India seems to have understood what exactly the Nagas want while on its part; it is yet to come up with its position. It will never.

III. Problems with the Current approach:

A press statement issued by the MIP of NSCN (I-M) during the last extension of the cease-fire reportedly had said that its leaders had flayed the Government of India for what was described as "hurting the sentiment of the Nagas". Rightly so. The Government of India has not responded to any of the core proposals made by the Naga leaders despite holding 59 rounds of talks.

For the GoI, it appears imperative to solve the Naga issue while maintaining the country's territorial integrity. Government of India is aware that it is indispensable to look beyond the Mizoram or Punjab models to find a permanent solution to the Naga problem, but there is no model yet in its mind. Consequently, the Government of India rather than providing a point-to-point answer to the demands of the NSCN (IM) simply states its willingness to solve the crisis. Nevertheless, the perpetual extension of the terms of the cease-fire on the pretext of proper implementation of the agreements through periodic reviews is clearly seen as a ploy of the GOI to buy time in order to bury the peace process under the wrap of time.

On the integration issue, the Government seems to be reluctant to make a commitment because of the serious problems associated with it. None of these states which has Naga population are likely to accept the NSCN (IM)'s demand. Even as the talk is between the GOI and the Nagas, the Government is unlikely to cede the territories of other states claimed by the Nagas. The Government of India has been time and again giving assurances to these states that their territorial integrity will be respected (at all cost?). Then the only motive of the GoI, it is speculated, is to extend the term of the cease-fire for as long as possible and sit on it.

In the face of this inbuilt stasis in the peace talks it is suggested that the period of ceasefire must be used to strengthen the Naga issues. A formidable task before the Nagas is emotional integration even before territorial integration is realized. Lamentably, there are no social-political institutions in Naga society adequately equipped that can be tasked to achieving this emotional integration. This is made even more difficult with the emergence of vested interest since the creation of Nagaland State in 1963. The last 50 years have also taught Naga political leaders the comfort of power and money and the art of double speak (Money has been flowing in to Nagaland in the name of curbing insurgency. Nagaland with a population of 19.88 lakhs (2001) has a budget of 3599 crs (2006-7) compared to Manipuri with a population of 23.88 lakhs with a budget of only 3362 crs). They have not allowed the public to come together by building their own constituents.

It is for a matter of record that Nagas are being administered by four state governments taught by four different educational boards and there is a wide difference in economic and social status of the Nagaland Nagas and the Nagas outside Nagaland. It seems that these fissures have become so deep seated that despite the various integration meetings subsequent to the ongoing peace process, not much headway has been made at the ground level. Quit notices are being issued to members of certain non- Nagaland Naga tribes working in Nagaland even now with disconcerting regularity. Evidently, a lot needs to be done in strengthening the existing institutions to achieve a real integration.

IV. Why GOI is interested in cease-fire

It is important here to delve a little deeper as to why GOI would like to continue the current cease fire as long as possible. The obvious reason of course is GOI has nothing to lose while it has been reaping enormous tactical gains. There are two main reasons: 1. To facilitate GOI's Look east policy. 2. And through this development process, weaken and disintegrate the cadre and other outfits in the region.

GOI has a huge agenda in the North East states as a land bridge to the ASEAN countries to aggressively push its 'Look East policy'. The relatively peaceful atmosphere during the peace process has been successfully used to facilitate this policy. In early 1990s India initiated economic liberalization process and simultaneously launched the 'Look east policy'. ASEAN was then thriving with economic boom-known as 'Asian Tigers'. This policy was reinforced and intensified by the BJP government and the present UPA government.

1. Look east policy has several components which include political, economic, security and strategic.

i. Political: 1990s saw the need for India to engage with the ASEAN. India moved very fast. India is a member of ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) since 1996 and has acceded to ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), became a summit partner to ASEAN in 2002 and signed the ASEAN-India Partnership for peace, Progress and shard Prosperity in 2004. She is also a founding member of East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2006. India is now closely entwined in ASEAN process. While actively engaging with other ASEAN countries, India is sponsoring many development projects in CLMV (Cambodia, Loas, Myanmar & Vietnam) countries for meaningful integration of these countries with the rest of ASEAN.

ii. Economic: Ever since the launching of India's Look east policy and the onset of regional integration of Southeast Asia, both India and ASEAN have developed a mutual comprehensive understanding in terms of shared vulnerabilities, shared economic progress and common stake in creating a peaceful and prosperous Asian Economic Community. The signing of the Framework Agreement on comprehensive Economic Cooperation and the signing of an ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA) with the combine GDP of 1.5 trillion and a market of 1.5 billion people is the most obvious example of growing synergy between India and ASEAN. India has been intensifying its trade relation with Myanmar in the recent past because it has some strategic implications for India. Myanmar is the only member of ASEAN that shares a border with India and a greater connectivity with Myanmar would provide India the gateway to ASEAN. Trade relations with Myanmar can also accelerate the development process in Northeast India and thus India is interested to invest in various infrastructure projects in Myanmar

iii. Security & Strategic: The proposed land linkage to the ASEAN countries through India's North east and Myanmar will give a distinct security and strategic gain to India. The improving infrastructure and up gradation of military facilities will facilitate easy and quick movement of military hardware to the border areas as and when contingencies arise which in turn will largely constraint the free movement of insurgent groups and the conduct of gorilla warfare.

iv. China factor: India has learnt a hard lesson from the loss it had suffered in the early 1990s. While it was giving ideological lecture to the military junta, the Chinese never slept to aggressively push down its influence (political, economic & military) in Myanmar. Now India is struggling hard to somehow compete if not contain that influence. With the Coco Islands on lease from Myanmar, China can access the Indian Ocean and has facilities to not only watch the naval activities on the eastern cost of India but also to spy on India's missile launching program. China's influence in Myanmar can disturb India's maritime strategic calculations as China can access the Arabian Sea via Pakistan's Gwadar port and the Indian Ocean via Myanmar. In addition, China has also signed an agreement to develop the harbour of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Chinese access to these strategic locations can provide the potential for a maritime encirclement of India by China. China is also assisting Myanmar to develop its naval bases in Sittwe, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Zadetkyikyan by building radar and refuelling facilities that could help Chinese submarine operations in the Bay of Bengal.

2. Implication to Northeast and Naga movement:

Physical infrastructure in the region will definitely improve because this region has to serve as a land bridge to the east. However, sadly, the inflow of large investment of big capital will also be used for exploiting rich mineral, hydro and bio diversity resources of the region particularly of the Nagas. In this process certain group of people will immensely benefit although the gap between the rich and poor will further widen. The interested group including local politicians will not want to share the benefit with the public in general and with tribes outside Nagaland in particular. The enthusiasm for territorial integration will rock the bottom. Secondly, as many members of the cadre will be benefitted from this development process as already been seen during the last 10 years of peace process, their love for comfortable civil life will continue to be a huge stumbling block for the movement's sustenance.

V. What Nagas need to know:

The Nagas need to know that it will be almost impossible for any underground faction to eliminate another faction, partly because every faction has a support base both within and outside Naga territory. All the factions must know by now that there are people within Nagaland/Nagalim who would like to see factional fightings continue so they can continue amassing wealth for themselves. In this the vested interests are in unison with outside forces who wish to divide and rule the Nagas.

All the factions should also be aware that unless they come together and deal with the Government of India (GOI) unitedly, separate and piecemeal negotiation will simply give GOI ample time to prepare sophisticated strategies to ensure that Naga political struggle does not progress any further. By now all the factions ought to realize that Assam (Asom), Manipur, and Arunachal, emboldened by the tacit support of GOI, will continue to oppose integration of all contiguous Naga. But what is most appalling is that the Nagas are at war with each other. Let us be very clear about this: the GOI will get serious only when the Nagas are united; until such time they will continue to play politics indefinitely. Time is the essence.

The Nagas need to learn from the very struggle of India for independence against the Britishers. In the struggle for India's independence, the freedom fighters resorted to different paths- some moderate and the others extreme in the early 20th Century. This differences in approaches (on one side led by Mahatma Gandhi and on the other by Subash Chandra Boss raising his own army outside India and collaborating with the axis power during the World War II) continued till the dawn of India's independence. However, their goal was just one namely, the independence of India. The freedom fighters drained their energies in expelling the external forces and not on eliminating each other. Is there a lesson for us in this?

The Nagas must know that even though armed aggression has stopped during cease-fire a new threat is emerging in the shape of economic offensive, where in the name of development nagas will be integrated and subordinated to mainland India. It is interesting to note that while the peace process is being on, the GoI has intensified its efforts in focusing on the development of the Northeast region. 10 % of the Union budget is allocated for the region while the population and area of the region are mere 3.88% (2001 census) and around 8% respectively. Particularly, the state of Nagaland will be benefiting in the coming years with many developmental and educational projects. The current budget has allocated Rs 700 crores for rail link from Dimapur to Kohima, Nagaland will get its own High Court very soon and its university is being upgraded by opening new engineering college and Medical College while the Nagas living in other states remain marginalized and dejected. Recently two SEZs have been announced. It has been reported that Nagaland has opened up for oil exploration (Champang Oil) that will accrue to the State Government to the tune of US$ 115 million in the coming 3-4 years. While one can understand the reason why NSCN (IM) has become a stakeholder of this project, it casts a doubt as to how it will serve the interest of the Naga movement. Prosperity breeds revolutionary lethargy. Moreover, large investment of big capital inevitably leads to increasing power of money bags, who in the current reality of the sub-continent are from the mainland; it also leads to inflow of skilled and unskilled workforce that too will flow in from the mainland. For instance, Wokha that is the site of hydal project also witnessed the highest growth of population in the decadal census of 1991-2001. What will be the impact of all this on Naga society?

VI. Options

1) Staying on course

The current approach does not seem to be very useful for the furtherance of the cause of the Nagas. Some of the reasons are:

i. There has not been any forward movement in the core issues proposed by the collective leadership. The reasons may be: a) the proposals put forward by the collective leadership entail a major constitutional changes that no political leaders of any party in India would like to imagine. b) Nagas remain as disunited as ever and Government of India still has enough maneuvering space. c) Any concession to the Nagas will open a Pandora box.

ii. While the talk seems to be facing a wall, the Naga cadre specially, the arm cadre has apparently become complacent after experiencing the comfort of civil life. There have been reports that the instructions for dispersal of government funds in Ukhrul District are flowing from Hebron camp. Will this blur the vision of the middle rung cadre, is a question which needs objective answer. The cadre has also become even more venerable due to their complete exposure to Indian intelligence department over the last more than one decade in terms of the details of their sympathizers, movements, personal contacts. How easy for the GOI to crack down once the peace process ceases. iii. The peace period has led to disproportionate prosperity of Nagaland without much progress on the core issues. While prosperity of our Naga brethren in Nagaland should not be a cause of envy for others, but when it is used as tool by GOI to blunt the sharpness of Naga nationalism and create friction and discord in Naga polity, this needs to be viewed and judged critically. It is not in the interest of a nation to have half of its populations feasting in the banquette of its enemies.

iv. The current peace process has not brought much internal unity. In fact it has increased competition among the factions to get the attention of the Government of India. NSCN (K) has separately declared cease-fire with the GOI and NNC has been trying to reassert its importance. Much effort to bring together all factions have not achieved anything much. While the NSCN (I-M) is trying to negotiate with the GOI, NSCN (K) has condemned the NSCN (IM) for having dropped sovereignty in the list of its demands. Whereas NSCN (K) has not come up with any proposals for settlement and been dumped by NSCN (I-M) as a stooge in the hands of some politicians who are at loggerhead with the collective leadership. How long will this war of words go on? And who, ultimately benefits?

v. It may be mentioned here that India has not fought war for the last 35 years now; it is an emerging regional and economic power, a de facto nuclear power and signatory to almost all United Nations Conventions. It has almost all the institutions and mechanism to counter any anti-Indian propaganda. In view of this, it may not be very easy to convince its good will to understand and grant what the Nagas want. India is doing a sleeping act-it is difficult to wake up a person who is not actually sleeping. Granting any concession whatsoever outside the parameter of Indian constitution is more of face loss than gaining international applause for doing democratic charity. J& K, which had special status with separate constitution, separate flag etc. when it began its statehood is today as ordinary as any other state in India. This is the kind of game India is playing with Nagas too.

2) Withdrawal from cease-fire:

Withdrawing from the cease-fire at this juncture is not a viable option either. I do not know the exact strength and preparedness of the cadre. However, it may not be difficult to assume that a) our cadres who are in the camp and in other various mission are not mentally prepared to go underground now. b) Withdrawal from the cease-fire without any tactical preparation will leave the movement in shamble. There is possibility of resistance from some quarter that will be detrimental to the interest of the movement. There is a need to show to the world that the movement can withstand the shift from peace process to any other eventuality. And it appears that it is not ready yet for that. VII.

Recommendations

New approach:

While the ten-year long cease-fire appears to have not produced the desired result, immediate withdrawal is likely to lead to a more difficult situation. The new approach recommends a planned withdrawal with a series of spade-work. The planning will have three components.

1) Internal:

While outcome of the ongoing negotiation will depend on various variables, the two most important of them are the internal strengths of the negotiating parties and the external pressure the internal factor can generate. In our case, it is the strength of NSCN (I-M) and its capacity to hold the Naga society together including integrating (NSCN (K) and NNC) into its fold. We have witnessed during the last 60 years of our struggle how difficult it is to have solidarity/unity in Naga society. One cannot undermine the importance of unity among Nagas at this juncture. There are three options to deal with other factions:

i) Elimination of other factions: Since the signing of the Accord in 1975 and the cruel annihilation attempt by (K) in 1989, the three groups appear to be trying to eliminate each other, physically if possible. However, time has told us that this has not happened and will not happen as each group has its own support base in the society. There are also other vested interest and external forces operating taking advantage of this disunity. We have seen the worst happening now- the deepening hatred between the factions. ii) Appeal for reconciliation with condition: In the recent times, NSCN (I-M) has tried to put the past behind and appealed to the conscience of the other two factions (NSCN (K) and NNC) of their heinous crimes of the past. It had called the other two to severe ties with the common enemy as a condition for reconciliation.

While the softening of its stand of NSCN (IM) is to be appreciated, this does not appear to appeal the other two factions. Main reasons among others can be: a) the leadership of the other two factions seem to have lost vision for the Nagas. In this vision vacuum, there is no incentive for them to renounce the leadership position they are commanding in their respective factions and become subservient to the collective leadership of NSCN (I-M). On the other hand, they are enjoying the patronages of some Naga politician and the Government of India. b) This strong disincentives will not allow their already elated egos to say sorry for their past wrong doing. c) With the kind of bitterness and venoms that have been spewing at each other over the past several years, it may be very difficult for them to be convinced that the forgiveness can be genuine and there is no hook attached to it.

iii) Appeal for reconciliation without condition: While one can understand the difficulty for the collective leadership to extend unconditional reconciliation, there seems to be no other way but to recourse to this. Even this offer is unlikely to move the minds of the leaders of other factions for the reason stated above. However, it will manifest the immense strength of the collective leadership to the Naga society and will mount pressure on other factions. It is the general perception of the Naga society that in doing so no compromise of principle will be made but instead enhance the credibility of the collective leadership. The arguments for this approach are:

The ultimate goal of Naga movement is peace and rights of the Nagas to live as a nation. Naga society is weak and this is more the reason why Nagas need to stand together. It is the way of showing sincerity of the collective leadership and its inner strength to forgive without condition for the greater cause of the Naga people.

If the other factions still reject this offer (which is likely), their motives will be exposed and their support base will shrink.

If the collective leadership is positive that the other factions will respond to such appeal and at the same time cannot help nurturing bitterness against them- still this approach is apt because 'revenge tastes best when it is cold'.

iv) Models of reconciliation: In recent times of the world history, eleven countries have set up reconciliation commissions under various nomenclatures such as 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission', 'Reconciliation Commission' etc. Most of these Commissions are set up within a sovereign country to reconcile the crimes perpetrated by two parties (Government on one hand and liberation forces on the other, if there is) within the country. A few including Timor Leste set up the TRC for reconciling between two countries (Indonesia and Timor Leste). Some of these Commissions are set up to investigate the crime committed by one party while in most cases (including South Africa) to investigate the crimes committed by both the parties. The Commissions are set up, of course, after the event of the crime.

Irrespective of the situations they have been set up, the main intention of these commissions is political and nation building (in case of internal) and smoothening bilateral relations (in case of two independent countries). After going through all these models, it is difficult for Naga case to draw a parallel with any one of them. Two main difficulties in drawing parallel are: There is no legal recognized state authority to set up such Commission. Thus there is no sovereign pressure on the erring parties to honour the findings of the investigation. These reconciliations are purely political in nature, while the need to have reconciliation among all factions in Naga movement is functional and operational because we are still a struggling nation.

Reconciliation in case of the above examples is an effort to make the past become a history. Whereas, reconciliation effort in Naga struggle process will be to create history of liberation.

Unless Naga people unite and stand up as one people, Government of India will not take us seriously. We, Nagas need to find our own model for reconciliation in the interest of Naga nation.

Reconciliation process should also include our Kuki brothers living in the so called 'Naga territory'. As one looks back, the early 1990s upheaval was a retarding factor for the movement. Whether we like it or not, Nagas and Kukis share the same future and the sooner we make the Kuki brothers realize this the better it is for both. It is necessary that being a larger and more responsible community, Nagas need to relentlessly extend good will to them and win their confidence. I am made to understand that Kukis in Nagaland are at peace with our counterpart Naga brothers there.

To be continued ....