2007 has noticed, more then ever before, conglomeration of a large chunk of political forces - some stalwarts and quite a few political heavy weights with some minors and refuses from this party or that; in their desperate bid for a foothold in the run up to the 9th general elections.

In their last minute attempt to get through some of the major national and even regional parties, they had accomplished every conceivable somersault, connived various methodologies in their sleeves, all the time reminding the masses that politics is the last refuge of the scoundrel and therefore had nothing to shy upon in catching hold of whatever means for survival, however lowly it may be.

Though a few, quite a few, indeed succeeded in securing access into, understandably, the much sought-after front, the ruling national party-the INC, many who were shown the door, unceremoniously, in the last moment, had to scour desperately for a tooth-hold in some party or, more appropriately, a sub-party as one can brand them. One such regional party, the MPP, had finally benefited by providing the much-awaited refuge to this tertiary group into its fold. The major players in the fray are, INC, BJP, MSCP, NCP, RJD, BSP, NNP, MPP, CPI, CPI (M) plus a number of Independents.

Politicians are endowed with the best of tongue with enormous lung power and the stalwarts of the party lost no time in welcoming these panic-stricken, so-called, social workers into its fold with such sugar-coated welcome notes like - a home coming in the long run and ultimate rendezvous after a while in wilderness, or reaching solace in the political yatra and the like. They are masters in attributing any added qualifications to whomsoever they choose, mostly guided by their convenience and suitability, rather then reason and principle.

Popular support for one particular party or person is complicated in nature, content and disposition. A voter may be easily swayed from one party to another, more so in the rural areas where the people are not well informed, educated or worst still, take little interest in the profile of the candidates, let alone, the issues rolled up by the parties.

These categories are, more often then not, indifferent to the political campaigns and easily yield to well-orchestrated political gimmicks or constant pleads from close associates or through the oft-used, avenues of bribery. Such phenomena exist in rural, why only rural - are rampant in suburban areas as well.

In the urban set up, at least in the more educated and informed town areas, pressures serve a secondary approach, and voters are more or less immune to pulls; which situation is true even among the few four or five members that constitute a family. They go by their conscience governed by their experience in the past, the expected commitment and inherent capability of the candidates and the ideology of the political party concerned.

In the hill areas, however, the situation is peculiarly different. Group or community concerns sponsored by a few influential leaders or village chiefs often decide the candidate or the party to choose from. They are more organised, and have a strong community sense of belongingness to a common cause and more often then not, the collective decision is often the last word.

Perhaps the institution of Church services instils this rare quality of reconciling to a common undisputed wisdom of submission to a particular dictum. And there they go en-mass, in full steam in majority of the cases. This situation is what is obtaining today in at least four out of five hill districts namely Senapati, Ukhrul, Chandel and Tamenglong where the United Naga Council in connivance with the NSCN (IM), blew hot and cold with a dictum to cast votes to 11 UNC- backed independent candidates, openly sponsored in meetings held in Senapati district.

According to the Naga Hoho, the apex organisation of the Nagas, victory of these independent candidates will reinforce building up of a pressure group as part of the Opposition in the next Assembly in Manipur.

Paul Leo, president of Naga Hoho, exuding full confidence in the election of these sponsored candidates asserts that they would not join the Government. Their concern was to put up candidates who on being elected, would work for the common cause of greater Nagalim, by integrating all-Naga inhabited areas in the north east encompassing parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and more specifically Manipur.

In their patriotism for the cause of an independent Nagalim, they were scornful of other candidates under the banner of other parties, and thought it wise to intimidate such candidates not officially put up by the UNC to withdraw. To ensure return of these consensus candidates in the Naga-stronghold districts, the United Naga Democratic Front has hands in glove with the all-powerful UNC.

Their command was clear and loud to the extent of causing concerns among informed persons if the approach adopted by the UNC does not attract election code of conduct for a free and fair poll. And mind you, the hills constitute 900 polling stations out of a total of 2053 stations. As it is, this is no ordinary election in the State. Even the Nagaland Chief Minister, Neiphiu Rio weighs full stakes on UNC and reportedly observed - this is good for the Naga people. I hope they will win and take a collective decision, which is good for us too.

The premises on which the fronts solicit votes understandably are the ones that attempt to woo popular support and sympathy of the masses. They prefer, however inconvenient, to ride the waves generated by current issues. Catchy slogans spurted out by majority of the candidates often centre on mud-slinging via personal references often tantamount to finding faults with others rather then what he or she would individually and collectively endeavour to achieve on being elected.

Almost all the political parties play the non-development cards close to their chest, rather then the development issues that confront the society. This strategy is apparent on the face of the fact that non-development issues can be made as ambiguous as possible depending on the suitability or otherwise of the person or the party and thus can be safely played whereas for development matters, one has to be location and time-specific and such other considerations and would therefore cause a backlash in the likely event of a miscarriage.

Issues like generation of employment or for that matter eradicating poverty, or industrialisation, quality education, or improving availability of power etc take the back-stage. In the State, presently hot topics like safeguarding the territorial integrity, repeal of the dreaded Army Act (AFSPA), prohibition etc are given much weightage in the valley whereas in the hills the single most popular issue of all-time importance is integrating all Naga-inhabited areas into a unified Nagalim. Poll are no longer immune to HIV/AIDS and it has finally shared space in poll manifestos along with the more discussed topics like insurgency, territorial integrity, AFSPA etc.

The MPP a strong contender for forming the Government, despite the fact that it had to lick wounds with two lone representatives in the last Assembly, kick-started its campaign largely riding the anti-AFSPA wave in valley already surcharged with emotional outbursts on the fall-out of Sharmila Chanu's six-year old fast unto death demanding repeal of the so-known draconian Army Act. Once returned to power, the MPP declared-the AFSPA would be repealed from the State.

Presently the Act stands withdrawn from seven Assembly constituencies of the Imphal Municipality area being shy of withdrawing from the rest of the State considering the enormous impossibi-lities that would crop up in containing the vexed issue of law and order. Not to be out-beaten, even national parties like the BJP the SP are banking on this plank to woo votes. The BJP desperate to regain its lost stature and secure a foothold in the political arena in the State, even considered it wise to accord second highest priority to this issue in their 28-point poll manifesto.

The INC holding the reigns of governance in the State and the Centre, is conspicuous, by their doubly-guarded proclamation that there is imperative need for providing a human touch in the Act, carefully short of assuring total repeal of the Act and asserting that they are in the process of reading between the lines, the recommendations of Justice Reddy Committee constituted to review the Act in July 2004, the report of which was handed over to the Centre in July 2006. This sounds ambiguous, obviously.

The iron lady of the Congress Government, in the person of Sonia Gandhi shook off all assignments in New Delhi to visit the State twice in a matter of a week, on the 5th and the 11th of Feb. In the first visit prior to the first leg of poll on 8 February, while addressing voters in the valley, she was in her usual diplomacy to play the territorial integrity card, by emphasising that the boundary of the state would not be disturbed, a clause very sweet to the heart of the Meities and would spill hearts for the cause of the lady.

She, however, was conspicuous in skipping reference to integrity, an issue not to the taste of the tribals in their demand for a united Nagaland, while addressing voters in two hill districts of Tamenglong and Churachandpur on 11 February. On both days when she addressed voters first in the valley and second in the hills, she thought it wise to use almost the same script minus territorial integrity while addressing voters in the hills. Political analysts could term it as some kind of somersault playing the politics of convenience. The Congress has reasons to worry in the hills in the emerging context. The PM addressed a few meetings on 18 Feb in the hills prior to the 3rd and last leg slated for 23 Feb when Tamenglong, Chura- chandpur and Chandel districts will go to poll...

Ironically, the RJD party chaired by the crowd-puller big time politician Lalu Prasad Yadav with the state unit headed by W. Nipamacha Singh, a former Chief Minister, is quite candid in admitting that they, even when returned to power, which likelihood is remote in any case, wound not be able to scrape the Act. Despite the popular demand of the masses cutting across party lines, they have not picked AFSPA as a poll agenda in the run up to the ninth assembly elections. There perhaps, is logic, in this assertion. The point in focus is - while for some fronts the Act emerges as a core campaign plank, for a few, it is not. Well, one man’s meat is another man’s poison.

A sweeping look at the core of the Act would reveal how formidable a task it would be for any Government to totally scrape the Act from the State, notwithstanding the utterances by some heavy-weights... The Act initially was imposed in the hill districts of the State in the early sixties to rein in erstwhile Naga insurgents. The emergence of NSCN in the hills and Meitei insurgents in the valley (around a whooping, 19 of them, as on now) led to the Act being extended to the whole State as early as September, 1980.

The ruling SPF Government led by the Congress, just managed to scrape it from the Imphal municipality area in August, 2004, under enormous pressure and outcry from public on the aftermath of the Manorama Chanu episode when the Assam Rifles was condemned as causing the arrest, alleged torture, rape and subsequent assassination of the girl in July, 2004. In addition, the great Malom massacre when the Assam Rifles armed with the provisions of the Act, trooped innocent civilians inside a make-shift bus stand and emptied their guns in retaliation to an underground ambush inflicted on a column of the paramilitary force that occurred seconds before, passed off without any prosecution, triggered the fast-unto death mission undertaken by a petite Manipuri girl Sharmila Chanu, a vow which has already crossed an unimaginable long spell of six years.

Though, understandably, the political bosses are inclined to repeal the Act, given the ground realities obtaining in this trouble-torn state, the army are adamant in asserting that the success of keeping at bay the rampant insurgency activities in the interior areas or the state hinge largely on the provisions of the Act, which, inter-alias, provides:
i) Extra-ordinary powers to any officer of the armed forces except for the Jawans;
ii) They can shoot to kill and the officer need only be of the opinion that it is necessary;
iii) They can arrest anyone, enter and search without warrant on suspicion;
iv) No legal proceedings can be brought against any member except with the approval of the Centre.

The MPP, one of the oldest regional front launched in the early seventies formed Government in 1974 riding the waves of intra-state issues. It was short-lived however and had the ignominy of a downward slide to hit the rock bottom and had to rest satisfied with two MLAs in a house of sixty members in the last Government.

This time around, the party got a jolt and the stalwarts are already fuming with renewed vigour and enthusiasm. Political heavyweights that include former Chief Minister RK Dorendra, former Deputy CM and former Union Minister Th. Chaoba, and another all-time big name Dr. L. Chandramani who had held a number of important ministerial portfolios in several Ministries including that of a Deputy Chief Minister have joined. Quite a new prominent personalities have joined hands in this party. On paper the party looks formidable next to the Congress and all varieties of manoeuvrings are expected to form the next Government.

On the eve of the first leg of poll on the 8th, the party exudes confidence. Once again they are riding the local plank of AFSPA and territorial integrity to solicit public sympathy. In the valley, and part of the hills, the INC is, at least, theoretically, going strong striking a chord on the many achievements during the full term of five years in governance, a feat, indeed, rarely succeeded by any political force in the recent past?

The NCP of Sharad Pawar, is in terms of propaganda not far behind, headed by another one-time strong man Radhabinod Koijam who had once headed the ministry, though short-lived, apart from holding several ministerial positions. The other fronts have to show their might in wresting popular support, a venture not easy to accomplish, by any standard. In the hills, the independents sponsored by the UNC would have an edge over the others, for obvious reasons. Already the fate of 19 MLAs is sealed on the 8th with another 29 to be decided in the poll on the 14th, while that of 12 MLAs to be completed by 23, February.

Several institutional safeguards in the form of introducing Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) which does away with the use of traditional paper slips, manning of the polling stations exclusively by the Para-military forces largely BSF and CRPF, as against the usual State police and home guards while the task of, area-domination and sensitising the security cordon assigned with the BSF aided by the State force have improved the scenario considerably. In addition providing adequate security coverage to each candidate, banning of using more then three vehicles per candidate, restriction in pulling up fag-pols, limiting the expenses to Rs 5 lakhs etc are laudable towards ensuring a healthy atmosphere for a free and fair voting.

Nevertheless, incidents of malpractices do happen necessitating re-poll in the polling stations in Thoubal and Senapati districts where around 70 to 80% voting took place on the 8th and even a little more in the second leg on the 14th. What is alarming is the reported non-participation in the democratic exercise in parts of Senapati and Ukhrul and suspected UGs disturbing poll-process in parts of Sadar Hills amidst report of brisk polling even braving the element weather and rains in the hills. The updated technology employed by the ECI, the stringent security deployment and strict supervision in this election has been lauded far and wide.

In Ukhrul, a predominantly Tangkhul-Naga dominated district, it is felt that perhaps for the first time polling day belonged to the voters. One can surmise what would be the scenario in the past! In Senapati district the district Hqs of the integration movement in Manipur, not a single voter turned out on the day of repolling in three polling stations in Mao constituency reportedly in response to the dictum of the UGs. In the valley, cases or killing of workers or contesting candidates at least in Jiribam and Keishamthong constituencies over and above the usual skirmishes do take place, hinting at rampant exercise or muscle and money power and other such malpractices.

While preparing this note, a kind of a joke by the prolific writer Khushwant Singh, intrigued me repeatedly. He was one day invited by a close friend to a function to decide the profession of his Harvard-educated son. The methodology was plain. On the D-day, Khushwant and the friend would conduct the boy into a room where 4 conspicuous looking items - a bottle of remi-martin, a pack of 1000 -rupee notes, a colts revolver and a religious book were laid.

Thereafter, each would quickly retreat and take positions at two corners of the room wherein one hole each is in position. Both have nothing to do except looking through their respective holes to observe which of the four, the young man, fresh from an institution of the reputation of Harvard, would choose.

According to the father, if the colts attract the young man he would, in all probability, be a muscle man, a dada-giri type; if on the other hand, he chooses the whisky, well, he would end up being a drunkard. If, however, by sheer luck, he prefers the wade of money, he would go for business. In the event of his picking the religious book, the boy would be a saintly, religious person! An immensely bemused Khushwant was anxiously waiting for the opportune moment when the boy would be led into the room. Sooner then later, the boy appeared on the scene and the two counsellors lost no time in wishing the boy best of luck and religiously conducted him into the room. Having accomplished the solemn job, both rushed to their respective posts to cover the proceedings.

The young man surveyed the room, got attracted to the table; approached majestically, paused for a moment before putting the wade of money into his left pocket, grabbed the colts revolver and tucked into his right side of the belt, got hold of the book into his left armpit and finally crack-opened the bottle of whisky, emptied the contents into his mouth with relative ease.

Having done his job, the young man walked out of the room triumphantly without bothering for any of them. A thoroughly perplexed Khushwant turned to his friend and asked what the profession of the boy would be now that he preferred to choose all the four at a time. A visibly worried Khushwant's friend non-melancholically slapped his forehead and blurted out that his son would end up being a politician.

I am not, even for a moment, underplaying the politicians. Understandably, they are made up of far superior qualities normally not possessed by a common person. There may be instances of excesses of and on while exercising their chosen line of action. That is a different ingredient altogether and this factor holds a prominent place in today’s society. The common man is concerned about the collective conscience of the party or parties who would from the Government in the next Government as to whether they would not live up to the assurances put forth by each, individually and collectively.

If past experiences are any guide, certainly there are reasons for considerable concern. The state of things obtaining in the state be it in the areas of economic and social infrastructure, the law and order scenario, and you mention anything, do not go well in the minds of the people. Manipur, today occupies the lowest strata in the development index in the northeast, the position of power is again the worst.

In the arena of education, though the state produces some of the best brains in the fields of mathematics and science, the status of the very important elementary education system is ranked among the worst in the country, though the state is second best performer in the region, according to the Education Development index unveiled by the MHRD.

The recent report in the local dailies charging two Ministers of conniving to siphon off a whooping sum of over Rs 4.5 cr from their departmental fund and humiliating all the more, ultimately compelled to hand over to an UG unit, does not augur well in the minds of the civic society. Such and other instances are quite aplenty now and then.

How do the people react to this - this way, can the state ever crawl up the development chart in the country? What is the remedy - does it lie in a Government headed by a leader of competence, integrity and proven honesty, or is it the way round where, however much the leader lacks in integrity, the majority, I mean, if not all, are personalities of proven candour and zeal to confront the leader and endeavour to deliver goods. In such a scenario, yes, we have some hope and prospect. If, on the other hand, we have a situation, where, like in the past, nobody to choose from, be prepared for the rapid downslide in the years to come.

A close scrutiny of the candidates would forecast return of around 40 or so old faces that one can surmise as fully tested; while 15 to 20 could be fresh faces or at the least not having served a ministry. The greatest concern now is would Manipur ever be in safe hands? God help the State.

NB: This article was written before the 9th Assembly election.