Manipur elections: Exit polls and ground reality
- The People's Chronicle Editorial :: March 09, 2022 -
AS the leading party in the coalition government, it’s not surprising that different agencies involved in predicting election outcomes have put the BJP well ahead of others in the race of forming the next government in the state.
Traditionally, possible outcome of election results prior to the formal counting process is basically centred on survey findings and projections through conduct of personal interviews on and after the polling days among the adult franchisees.
The common practice for all the exit poll agencies is to conduct random interviews of some voters and psephologists, and project the outcome.
As there is no guarantee that all the voters would candidly share which party or candidate they have voted for, the picture would be clear only after commencement of the official counting process.
Thus, how well the BJP has fared in the polls could be known only on March 10.
But it could be safely stated that the Indian National Congress wouldn’t be able to reach anywhere near its previous mark of 28 MLAs simply owing to defection of many of its strong contenders ahead of the election and the grand old party had to put up candidates to avoid the embarrassment of conceding defeat without a fight.
It needs no reminding that in case BJP reaches the majority mark substantial number of its new MLAs would be former Congress legislators.
Nevertheless, BJP wouldn’t mind the presence of Congress turncoats for further decimation of the arch rival en-route to wresting power for the second time would be its ultimate goal.
As per the post-poll survey findings, the loss suffered by the Congress would be BJP’s gain and help the latter improve its tally from the previous election.
However, if the survey reports turn out to be merely speculative and state sees fractured mandate, then there would be intense lobbying for forming the government with NPP, NPF and whichever party manages to bag a handful of seats becoming the kingmaker.
With NPP predicted to gain its vote share by 11.2 per cent, an improvement from its 5 percentage in the 2017 polls, and the NPF also likely to increase its seat tally, these two will probably decide whether the BJP retains power or the Congress party revives its fortune with new allies.
While some agencies estimated that the saffron party is likely to win 23 to 27 seats in the 60-member Assembly and others worked out thefigure well above the majority mark, the predictions that the Congress too might pocket 12 to 16 seats, and National People's Party (NPP) and Naga People's Front (NPF) bag 10-14 and 3-7 respectively indicate that the post-poll scenario would be dominated by intense horse-trading, in case the BJP could not muster the required number on its own.
As BjP leaders have been making it clear during the campaigning that it has no intention of sharing power even with its NEDA allies, it is but natural for NPP and NPF, the former in particular, to look for new partners to derail BJP’s ambition as well as to drive home the message that allies shouldn’t be ill-treated.
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