Manipur BJP 2022 - Masterstroke or Mediocre stroke ?

Boilal Gangte *

The performance of BJP in the just concluded Manipur Assembly Election 2022 was a Thumping Victory by any measure. Despite the wave swung in favor of BJP since the beginning, 32 seats on their own exceeded the general expectations.

Case in point will be, even as late as during a speech in Constituency, the incumbent CM Shri Biren Singh was not very sure of crossing the 30 mark though he was confident of BJP being the largest party. Hence, the BJP crossing the magic figures by itself was a great feat.

Indeed, a Clinical Performance !

As they say "Numbers don't lie", some of the statistics do corroborate the efficiency and effectiveness of the party machinery in managing the biggest victory in the history of BJP Manipur.

Firstly, BJP has increased their Assembly seats by a phenomenal 52%, which resulted in an improvement of majority seat share by 18% against the last election. The interesting insight here is the way in which they managed to achieve this growth. 52% growth &18% improvement came just from 1.5% increment in vote share. This means they made every punch heavier vis-a-vis last election.

Secondly, the average winning votes of BJP grew by 19% vis-à-vis their overall votes at 17%, meaning the winning MLAs are becoming more dominant. Thirdly, while the average winner margin of the State grew by 9%, but BJP grew by a whopping 103%. So, empirically it appears that BJP is getting healthier and sharper than before. Their MLAs seem to be solidifying their vote banks and maintaining better Vote margin.

Does this mean "Brand BJP" is gaining more brand equity in the State ?
Is this a Master Stroke ?

Well…The devil is in the details ! As we all know, the top brass of Team BJP Manipur has just returned from BJP Election Review meeting in Delhi. It is likely that the team would have gone with head held high and pumping close to 56 Inches Chest on meeting the Big Ones.

But, do you think the BJP Electoral Skynet a.k.a Modi & Shah would have been as convinced on this so-called thumping victory ? Did they really get the needed SABASHI ? Afterall, they are "The Lord of Votes" in the Indian electoral landscape (seeing their domination in recent times) and they are bound to see-through in every bit when it comes to election.

Setting the context!

Before we bring some data, it's important to rewind the backdrop in which this election was battled out. First, apart from being the party heading the Government, BJP had the luxury of the PM campaigning, the Home Minister doing not just campaigning but also door-to-door visit and also the regular presence of their Central Party president, which is previously uncommon for any party in the electoral history of Manipur.

Second, the Central team of BJP including Shri Sambit Patra, etc. were stationed for months and months with multiple inaugurations and football exhibition matches between CM's Team and representatives from Central Govt. Third, the media visibility of BJP (digital and traditional) was comparable to none, eg, the full front-page ads in Sangai express for BJP was a regular feature while it was a trickle for others.

Their extravagant social media campaign with the THAMBAL video looking nothing less than a Bollywood hit number was just unmatchable. Even in the lanes and deep by lanes in remote villages, the BJP flags and symbols were out-flowering others. The list goes on.

Fourth, BJP had a much stronger machinery and organization structure at field level. e.g., BJP's Mahila Party did door-to-door vote campaign across Constituencies which was a rare sight for other parties, a personal experience on this.

Fifth, being at the center, BJP spun better narrative with the pretext that a BJP government in the State will be able to extract more funds from the Central, meaning the Government employees, pensioners, contract work dependents, etc will get paid on time, which will not be the case if other party form the state government.

The result of all these was visible in the time of ticket allocation. It'll not be an exaggeration if one says that a BJP ticket was considered the WINNING KEY in all the 60 Constituencies. Proof of it is in the many instances of violence, protest and casualties when the tickets were announced.

Could they have done better ?

This question is the bitter pill and hence one needs to avoid hunches and opinions, but shoot straight with numbers.

For starters, Manipur BJP 2022 victory seems to be more of efficiency and not really on expanding vote banks. Despite such support, resources and pre-election wave, they could manage to gain just 1.5% vote share vis-à-vis the previous election.

To add to it, if you look at the count of the top two seats (Winner + Runners Up), BJP could just extend their number by a single seat, which makes it crystal clear that they were more successful in conversion and not on expansion. Hence, possibly "Brand BJP" is not making much inroad as it may have appeared.

The Ticket Distribution Hype !

On second note, so much of the Ticket Distribution hala-gula, with those scientific opinion poll systems, but the numbers don't seem to endorse much on the political thinking prowess. The party intelligence system recommended change of candidates in 35 seats (58% of the total seats).

And in these 35 seats they could win only 15 seats giving a hit rate of 43% vis-à-vis a hit rate of 68% on seats where they continue with the same candidate. A 25% better hit rate where they didn't make any change or they maintained status quo. Hence, there is a big question on their decisioning capabilities on candidate selection.

An apple-to-apple comparison !

If we take the best performance of Congress, which was in 2012 and juxtapose BJP's 2022 performance, which is the best for them so far, then one began to start re-thinking. Because, Congress 2012 is coming outmuch stronger and sharper in all count vis-à-vis BJP 2022. Not only had they won more seats and vote share, their efficiency was also better.

To conclude ! For sure, nobody can take anything away from the performance of BJP in Manipur Assembly election 2022. It's a stellar performance and a historic one and they deserved all the accolades. However, sometimes it makes sense to look at numbers in a dispassionately manner to arrive ata fair evaluation or assessment, rather than just be convinced by toplines.

Maybe "different strokes for different folks"and some might still be giving 10 out of 10 for Manipur BJP 2022. But empirically, it's quite certain that there are still miles to cover for Team Manipur BJP before graduating to the master degree.

Afterall, one never knows, the Lord of Votes may not think so masterly of Manipur BJP's stroke in the just concluded Assembly Election 2022.