Look East Policy and China

Prof E. Bijoykumar Singh *

India cannot shrug off the funny feeling whenever and wherever china is involved. Though some people believe that even comparing India with China on many matters is not proper we have come to regard competition with china very seriously. But the fact of the matter is that we are always late by decades.

One such proposal on which Indian think tanks are seriously contemplating the appropriate response is the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor. The Kunming to Kolkata (K2K) initiative has become more concrete with this idea. Kunming is the capital of China's Yunnan province. In many ways what China's south west is to China, is what India's North eastern region is to India. Both are either far from the sea or have no access to the seas. Both countries are concerned about the development of the region.

The debate on India's Look East Policy continues. However, the crux of the matter is why should Indian exporters to ASEAN markets take the uncertain and underdeveloped land route instead of the much cheaper sea route originating from Chennai and Kolkata? The profit motive of traders makes it extremely unlikely that any of them would ever choose the land route.

When that is the reality issues like the NER content of LEP, preparedness of the region and the appropriate framework become infructous. When that happens, LEP will be another Green Revolution for the region. It was much ado about nothing and like the green revolution it will quietly bypass this region.

My optimisim about the possibilities in this region when the eastern gates open up came to be based on very shaky ground. To me opening the eastern gates is important because it will enhance our confidence- what Chow can do, Chaoba can also do. It is not the export and import of goods and services but the intangibles- the confidence and the attitude that can transform the entire economic landscape.

Now comes China seeking an opening into the sea. The talk about connectivity vis a vis ASEAN connectivity and BCIM Economic corridor is of interest because it was disruption of connectivity that took the NER of India where it is now. As per goals of cooperation, the member-states will exchange information and promote cooperation in investment, trade, transportation, energy, finance, telecommunication, broadcasting and television, agriculture, regional collaboration and people-to-people exchange.

The idea of the BCIM is to first put in place a highway system along the land route and then turn it into an economic corridor with trading entrepots, tourism infrastructure and manufacturing hubs, possibly hosting production lines displaced from China and creating jobs along the corridor. Rising wages in China will make Chinese entrepreneurs look towards production centres with cheaper wage thereby displacing their production lines.

The corridor aims to connect Kolkata with China's Kunming city with a highway running through Bangladesh and Myanmar. The corridor will strengthen mutual investment, trade and infrastructure and other areas of cooperation.

It will help step up cooperation to build industrial parks as well as establishing railway connectivity. Beijing is keen to develop a Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor along the "southern silk route" that extends from Yunnan to India. The route, dating back to second century BC, would shorten travel time, cut transport costs, provide landlocked Yunnan province with access to the Bay of Bengal, open up markets and create production bases along the way.

India is emerging as a huge market for Chinese goods and services. The investment opportunities for China are immense and under-explored, especially in infrastructure. At the same time, China can woo India away from the US "pivot to Asia" strategy. That the prospects for defence cooperation are also being explored reinforces this new development.

The economic corridor will have to pass through India's NER.we are on the way. It cannot go by any other route. The route for the proposed BCIM Economic Corridor may run from Kunming in Yunnan, China to Kolkata in India via Chuxiong-Dali-Baoshan-Dehong in China, Namhkan, Lashio-Mandalay in Myanmar–Imphal and Silchar in India and Karimganj-Dhaka in Bangladesh.When it becomes fully operational it will usher in economic activity all along the route.The cumulative effect of such major intervention will be tremendous.

It will be an opportunity for rejuvenation and rediscovery of the NER.During the second world war, the land route was re-established from Kunming to Ledo in Assam through the Stilwell Road to support Chinese and allied soldiers fighting the Japanese. It is the shortest land route between northeast India and southwest China. Our unwillingness to revive this route is attributed to strategic consideration.

An alternative is a longer route that runs from Kunming to Imphal in northeast India through Ruili in Yunnan and Mandalay in Myanmar. It is not the states in east or northeast who fear Chinese trade and investments along the BCIM corridor which can boost their lagging economies.

Especially when Indian private capital, as the inimitable ManishankarAiyar had once said, has been 'criminal in its neglect' of the Northeast and there is not much the region can expect from the West or even Japan. Aiyar had strongly recommended allowing Bangladesh capital to invest in India's northeast -- something that Tripura seems to be keenly encouraging now.

But Tripura is not a typical state in NER. Why should we be so wary of Chinese capital? Why should not we welcome Chinese capital after doing the requisite homework of preparing ourselves? If the Indian Home Ministry can waive off its objections and agree to allow Chinese telecom majors like Huawei to invest in the Mumbai-Delhi industrial corridor or the Indian embassy in Beijing can bring huge Chinese investments for Andhra Pradesh, the east and northeast should not be deprived just because the region has a long border with China.

We should learn to look at the NER not just as a borderland but as an emerging hub of economic activities.