Is Manipur heading for a hung verdict

Peters Chongom *

The Election season is back. This time around it is famous for the many infamous happening.The attack on Gaikhangam convoy (not fake encounter huh).The curious act of big-shot politicians doing the somersault. Never in the wild dreams do you expect Mister Phungzathang Tonsing to quit congress, let alone Nemcha Kipgen embracing BJP tenaciously.

What they say is true; in politics, nothing is final until it is final. It is also equally true that politics is about winning elections. In this age, the idea enunciated by the great thinker Machiavelli is true: the Ends justify the means. Do whatever it takes to win the elections. The means? No one cares about the means and frankly, why should we.

Our father of the nation gave us so many great ideologies but it seems the application of his novel idea is nonexistent at this age. For instance, look at the concept of means justifies the ends. For Bapu, the means ought to be right. He pays more credence to the means than the ends. Are our politicians winning elections through just means?

The answer is an open truth and there is no price for guessing. Let alone the politicians, not even a living soul practices what Gandhi espouses. However, this article is not about Gandhi but Elections. Who will win? Who should win? These are million dollar questions that baffle our mind and that will continue to baffle at least till the proclamation of the result. This is historic and unique in more ways than one.

Let us remember the fact that our beloved sister Irom Sharmila is in the fray after sixteen long years of fasting for a unique cause. In essence, the public must be wholly behind her. However, the truth is way too different. This clearly points to the fact that in Manipur we all hate politicians but we love to vote them.

Remember the saying don’t vote you will only elect a politician. This saying is too good to be true. Look at the current narrative, from all practical purpose her party deserves huge support from the masses but from the social media that is at our disposal, we can clearly see that she is struggling to find her support base. However, fingers are crossed as the electoral outcome is anyone’s guess.

Looking at the trends one thing is sure: the BJP will win bigger than the last Lok Sabha election. However, Who will form the next govt. is too early to call but the BJP and congress will be the two biggest winners, it appears. There is also a high probability that the result could result in hung assembly. If it happens so then the role of smaller parties like NPF, NPP, TMC, LJP, and PRJA will be critical. Per se, such smaller parties might become the king matter.

For instance, NPP is also expected to win some numbers. As a matter of fact, the congress veteran Phungzathang Tonsing is also one of the contestants from the party. This shows that this party is no ordinary one. Another strong contender in the hills is the NPF. It may be too early to predict how many seats this party might win. However, only time will tell how will the govt. formation actually turns out.

The election is a very uncertain game of dice. Sometimes even big-shot politicians fail to win. As such, the outcome is usually too precarious to call. However, we can consider some likely outcomes by doing some educated political math. For instance, if the congress wins the solid majority (31 MLAs) then the game belongs to Ibobi and his old boys. Likewise, if the BJP wins 30 plus seats then Manipur will be under our Chaiwalla PM for next 5 years. Same goes for any party who wins a majority.

However, in this prevailing electoral map, it is very unlikely that a single party may win 30 plus seats. There is very high possibility that the electoral verdict may split and no single party attaining the desired number to form the popular govt. if such a scenario occurs then the ensuing game will be pleasing to watch.

Role of Governor :

Per se, the Governor in the Indian federal system has a plethora of discretionary power, more so in times of hung assembly. As a matter of fact, the Governor has the sole authority whom to invite in times of hung electoral verdict and there is no written constitutional account on this matter.

For instance, hypothetically if we assume the BJP wins 25 seats and congress wins 28 the Governor still has the discretion to call on the BJP if he is confident that the party will be able to form a stable Government. This analysis is important at this point because the ruling party at the state and center are congress and BJP respectively.

If such a likely scenario dawns in our electoral outcome then the congress will have no power to cry foul as the act of the governor does not tantamount to any form of constitutional dereliction. Clearly its advantage BJP then.

Per se, post-Election Day there is high chances of some quick and intense political bargaining by both the BJP and congress by wooing the smaller parties to form the govt. it may be too early to predict which side these smaller parties may flock but one thing is very likely that smaller parties will be the king maker if not the king himself.

Looking from the way how the electoral maps look as of now it appears that smaller parties might favor jumping into BJP ship as that will be sturdier in the longer run. Besides, Modi baba is also at the center and it is a wise call to join the party that is in congruence with the center. Besides the incumbent factor is also an issue.

Congress has ruled too long and people have become somewhat tired of the old one. It is not that the congress rule has been a bad one or good. It’s just the law of politics, especially electoral politics that people want a change from time to time. The concept of Status quo is hardly a prevalent occurrence in democracy. Again its advantage BJP. BJP are you listening?

On the other hand, if we listen to our CM Ibobi speak it appears that he is not just confident of winning but a two-third majority. Hey, that’s a resounding win. Will he be right? May be yes, look at the last Lok Sabha Election result, he predicted a win and he won a two-third. This Ibobi is no ordinary man. He is a political pundit. His predictions are mostly true but what we need to know is whether his predictions are based on rational calculation or merely as a coincidence only time will reveal.

If he means by what he says and it turns out to be true then its advantage congress. However, even Hillary Clinton expected greatly that she might win but the outcome is all out in the open for all of us. But you can still say this is Manipur and not the USA and congress finds a solace. I hope the congress walla are reading this with apt attention.

Notwithstanding, we need to see who eventually turns out the champs. In the Olympic Games, no one remembers the one who comes second. People only remember the gold medallist, the first. Per se, on behalf of the people of Manipur both from the hills and plains, I wish both the parties a resounding first. May the best win. We need the best win and rule the state. Meanwhile, let us wait for the counting day with rapt anticipation expecting the better of the two to become our new political champs.