How Serious Is US-Burma Rapprochement?
By Nehginpao Kipgen *
Political analysts and observers alike may be asking whether the engagement between the United States of America and Burma are real or just phony political maneuvers. Optimists may call a step toward democratization, and pessimists may still be reluctant to concur.
The U.S. government is pursuing carrot and stick or some call a dual-track policy toward Burma. On the other hand, the Burmese government is seeking to reestablish the bilateral relationship it had before the 1988 democracy uprising.
Given the experiences from successive military regimes, one can be as pessimistic as it can be. Despite the diverse opinions, one thing, however, apparent is that both countries are working to improve the bilateral relationship between the two nations.
Recent developments have given us evidence that the Obama administration is committed to the mission. The appointment of Derek Mitchell as U.S. special envoy for Burma (ambassador rank) itself was a significant step. The lingering question now is: how serious is this rapprochement?
The Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin, who represented Burma at the 66th U.N. General Assembly, was invited to the U.S. State Department headquarters in Washington, D.C. on September 29. It was Lwin’s first visit to the State Department, and in fact, it was the highest-level visit by a Burmese official in 2011.
The meeting between Lwin and Mitchell was joined by two other U.S. officials – Michael Posner, democracy, human rights and labor assistant secretary, and Kurt Campbell, East Asian and pacific affairs assistant secretary. It was a follow-up meeting first held at the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
In the last three years, there have been four separate high-level bilateral meetings between the two countries on the U.S. soil. Nyan Win, former Burmese Foreign Minister, visited Washington, D.C. in 2009 and again the minister met U.S. officials in New York in 2010 at the margins of the U.N. General Assembly.
If the seriousness of this bilateral engagement were to be judged on deeds rather than rhetoric, there have not been much accomplishments yet.
What does the U.S. government want to see from the Burmese government before it can resume full diplomatic relationship, including placing a permanent ambassador at the U.S. embassy in Rangoon?
The U.S. fundamental demands are - the release of all political prisoners (approximately over 2,000 in different prisons across Burma), an inclusive dialogue with opposition parties and ethnic minorities, adherence to U.N. non-proliferation agreements on nuclear weapons, greater accountability on human rights issues and an end to violence against ethnic minorities.
Although the Burmese government has not fully implemented any of the above demands, there are some indications that it is considering to pursue them. The first significant sign was the dialogue between the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein on August 19, followed by Mitchell’s visit to Burma.
The other significant sign for rapprochement was witnessed on the floor of the U.N. General Assembly when the Burmese foreign minister noted that the “president in exercising the mandate vested upon him by the constitution will further grant an amnesty at an appropriate time in the near future.” The government claims that it has released about 20,000 prisoners since May. Whether the proposed amnesty will include political prisoners is uncertain.
The latest development, somewhat surprising to many observers, came when the Burmese president, on September 30, ordered the suspension of the Chinese-backed Myitsone dam, a hydroelectric project worth $3.6 billion in Kachin state. This is one significant sign of the government beginning to listen to the concerns of the people.
The Kachins, one of the ethnic groups fighting for autonomy for decades, and others have been protesting the construction of this dam, which will not only destroy the ecological balance, but also displace several thousands of people. This sudden announcement is likely to irk the Chinese government, and perhaps it may result in some strained relationship between the two countries, at least for sometime.
All these recent developments are encouraging steps for rapprochement, which the U.S. considers essential to democratization and national reconciliation in Burma.
In return for its national reconciliation efforts, what the Burmese government wants from the U.S. government is primarily focused on lifting of economic sanctions. The Burmese government believes that the Western sanctions, particularly the European Union, will gradually be lifted if the United States begins to take such a step.
In addition, the Burmese government wants the U.S. government to know its initiatives on human rights and peace with ethnic minorities. Such acknowledgement from the U.S. will boost the nominal civilian government domestically.
Based on recent developments, it is safe to say that the U.S. government is serious about its rapprochement initiatives. It may not also be an exaggeration to say that the Burmese government is beginning to seize this opportunity.
The Burmese government must unequivocally understand that while rapprochement with the U.S. is important, it is imperative that it begins a genuine rapprochement with the country’s ethnic minorities, which remains the crux of Burma’s decades-old problems.
The article was first published in The Korea Times and
The Epoch Times
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* Nehginpao Kipgen is a political analyst and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). His works have been widely published in five continents - Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America. He can be reached at nehginpao(at)gmail(dot)com. This article was webcasted on October 15, 2011 .
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