Honing Skills of 40 Crore People, What Manipur can do?
- Part 1 -

S. Kunjabihari Singh *

A report of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs which issues periodical updates of world population, "World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision" publishes last week that India's population would outnumber China's in 2022.In other words, in another 7 years there will be more Indians than Chinese with its population projected to reach 1.4 billion.

c The UN document reported on Wednesday the 29th July, "India's population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, while China's population is expected to remain fairly constant until the 2030s, after which it is expected to slightly decrease."

This additional load would outstrip whatever feeble advantage of a demographic dividend or benefit from the increased productivity of the 'youth brigade'. It would put far greater stress on the resources considered already low, on the country's geographical area of 3.288 million sq.kilometres. Additionally India will also have to revive the economy to create jobs for millions more.

The emphasis necessarily would have to be on, inter-alia, improving the performance of the tertiary sector. Sadly, it would put more stress on the manufacturing sector. The skill empowerment program would therefore assume considerable importance. The bigger question is if the targets could be achievable, whether the 'Make in India', the 'Skill India', the 'Digital India' etc. are leading towards reaping dividends or likely to lie low without much impact?

Contrast this scenario with that of the most populous country as of now, China, with its population projected to the level of 1.4 billion, the same level with India by 2022. For one, China already has a strong manufacturing base producing almost everything from sophisticated tiny electronic gadgets, computers, to toys, clothing, apparel; you name anything and the Chinese produce it reaching even our villages.

The Chinese market is so vast and reaches every country west or east. Its market is so extensive and complete, Australia is often dubbed, "Made in China". And, in addition, its demographic dividend should be large, very large indeed considering that it has 9.597 million sq. kilometers of geographical area almost 3 times the size of Indi, with near similar population. The contrast is totally complete.

And, of course, the educational base of the people to support the kind of skill up-gradation, the diversity of vocational education and also the prospect for higher academic excellence are reportedly low in our country.

The earmarking of less than 1% of the National Income to the education sector in India can be contrasted with the corresponding figure of around 2.5% in China, among others, could contribute to the apparent gap. In Japan, a high school graduate is often claimed to have understood his or her subjects of study. Where are we, except for a few, most do not comprehend the subjects taught. So too are in the higher education sector.

This year's QS World University Tables rank the world's top 50 Universities subject-by-subject across 36 disciplines. Just one, I repeat, just one Indian Institution, the Delhi University makes it on the list, ranked 17th in the world in Development Studies.

There was no mention of the supposedly world-class Indian Institute of Management or Indian Institute of Technology, and even the much hyped, the Jawaharlal Nehru University; they appear to be world famous only in India. Chinese institutions are listed 50 times. Among them, Peking University is listed in the top 50 in 22 subjects.

The situation in the lower strata of education, the schools being most important for the vocational, and ITI level skill up gradation program should be equally alarming. How exactly is India going to compete with China in the times to come is still an issue? Worst still, given this background, can the 'Skill India' shine?

The GOI however opines that the future is not that bleak. Of 36 states and UTs, 24 have reached a stage of population stabilization. It also claims that population growth rate has declined from 21.54% for the decade of 1991-2000 to 17.64% during 2001-11. But the fact remains that the resultant pressure on the Indian economy is tremendous, its people are far less skilled or trained in commensurate trades or vocation.

The PM's Skill Development Program despite targeting to cover over 40 crore youths by 2022, would scramble for results as the population pressure would be similarly huge. A massive skill development program in the vocational sector would be called for to edge some impact however small.

We can go deeper into the scenario assessing the kind of trades, vocations which do not require much of an educational background and yet equip the trainees with employability quality. If around 30% of the total population i.e. roughly 38,00,00,000/, is taken as youth force in the age group of 15-29, only 10% approximately of this age-group are to be covered under the Skill India Initiative launched by the GOI in the next 7 years from now.

And government estimates or target are usually inflated and if the truth still holds, the situation is still worse. In addition, of course, not all the youth population in the age-group 15-29 is eligible for the ITI-kind of training.

Quite a few of this age group reach higher level of academics, professional courses etc. while a formidable portion would be such as cannot be qualified even for ITI-level of training. Even this latter category of semi-educated, or totally illiterate, if one can call them, could be covered under a massive program of imparting skills, which do not necessarily require much of a school qualification, say, in the areas of masonry, plumbing, black smithy, electrician, tailoring, handloom and handicraft etc. the list can be lengthened. Females too can be actively covered under this skill-improvement program.

Why females for these soft-skills only? In Manipur the 'construction area' as a vocation, under the tertiary sector, provides wage employment to the womenfolk increasingly over the years. They are noticed in brick kilns, construction sites, sand and stone quarrying sites etc. They contribute to the SDP under tertiary sector.

This is a new phenomenon in the state. This strength of the women force can be still improved by suitable skill improvement program for brick making, construction of buildings, cementing the bricks, raising walls of houses etc. This profession should not call for much of an educational background.

A bit of urge for accelerating income, a bit of endurance for harder work would be enough. The government, in the absence of suitable Civil Society Organizations, can conceive week-long or fortnight-long exposure to or skill development for short term training schedules.

To be continued...