Hiyanglam: Acid Test Both for BJP & Congress
Seram Neken *
Hiyanglam By-poll : 5 candidates in fray :: Pix - Hueiyen Lanpao
"A learned scholar once retold me the story of Rabbit & Tortoise's race. The first encounter between the rabbit and the tortoise ended with the Tortoise winning the race. The morale behind is 'Slow and Steady wins the race'. Out of shame, the rabbit again asked the tortoise to repeat the race. This time the Rabbit won. 'Swiftness always wins' is the dictum here. Again the tortoise proposed for another race in which the course of the race was to be decided by the tortoise. The race ensued on a selected course with a river on its way.
The tortoise won the race, as the Rabbit could not swim and cross the river. Lastly, the embarrassed rabbit proposed a re-run of the race. They began to run and reached the river bank. This time the tortoise politely asked the rabbit to sit on its back. It swam and crossed the river.
Both the rabbit and the tortoise reached the finishing point together at the same time. They celebrated their win together. It is not time for competition, but it is time for cooperation. Most burning problems facing Manipur state today have to be solved only with co-operation between the Congress and the BJP. Political differences are a hurdle in resolving public issues."
By-poll is always a mechanism to test the pro-incumbency or otherwise of the ruling government. The ensuing by-election to Hiyanglam Assembly Constituency is highly significant due to various reasons. First, the Congress Party (INC) is ruling in Manipur with a thumping majority (47 out of 60 seats). Congress's defeat, during such a stronghold, would indicate the end of the present regime in the next general election.
Second, Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is at the Centre with a whipping national support demonstrated during the last Lok Sabha polls. BJP defeat at this juncture would signify the total difference and weakness inherent in state BJP. Third, the General Election to Manipur Legislative Assembly is just 2 years and a few months from now. By-election for a lone assembly segment would see all-powers-that–be, either of Congress or of BJP. Hence, results will decide the stronger between 'people & power'.
Winnability of the BJP lies in the fact that 'in recent political history of Manipur, sons of deceased legislators very often got elected in their fathers' place during by-polls'. It might be on this maxim that BJP embraced the son of late Trinamool leader as its candidate. Moreover, if the so called BJP/Modi-wave sweeps in the state, there is high possibility of the BJP to win the seat.
The pertinent question now is, "Can the BJP Manipur stalwarts reap the maximum opportunity available under the party's hegemony in the country ?" "Whether BJP Manipur Pradesh can resolve differences within its very structure before reaching out to the voters ?" A senior journalist recently commented through ISTV Ayuksida, 'BJP with a difference' as seen throughout India proves to be 'BJP of differences' in Manipur.
On the other hand, Congress Party's electoral popularity is unquestionable in Manipur. We have seen concrete examples during the last State Assembly Election as well as the Lok Sabha Election. What the Manipur Pradesh Congress Party achieved in elections was almost contrary to existing national political scenario and against predictions by the best of the psephologists.
During the last one and a half decade, arithmetic of the Congress polls remained static in terms of winnability both in general elections and by-polls. Chief Minister Okram Ibobi, who has been lucky enough to reap the fruits of Anti-Defection Law in maintaining unparerreled political stability in Manipur, is considered a magic leader in the electoral front.
Moreover, E. Dijwamani, the Congress Candidate in the by-election to Hiyanglam Assembly Constituency is a prominent Congressman who has all the chances of winning with the support of 47 MLAs of his party. Incumbency factor coupled with monetary and physical support of the ruling MLAs, Ministers etc. brings INC candidate to the winning platform.
Meanwhile, another political stalwart of Hiyanglam constituency Dr. Yumnam Radheshyam is a deciding factor in the coming by-election. Radheshyam, who had fought the election on CPI, was defeated by the TMC Candidate (late Kunjo) by a negligible margin of just 85 votes during the last general election. Considering the amazing runners up status he had maintained, we may presume that this person has a big vote bank in Hiyanglam assembly constituency.
The turning point in his political career is that he had been an active member of BJP until he resigned from the party due to denial of party ticket to him. Now, interesting fact is that BJP has recommended the son of the deceased Trinamool MLA as its candidate, while the person who got defeat at the hands of TMC is now fighting on TMC ticket. In politics, nothing is considered impossible and 'Politics' itself is the asylum of the opportunists.
Hiyanglam is going to be an Acid Test both for the Congress and the BJP which are reigning with highly secured numbers at the State Level and the Central Level. If incumbency is a factor to decide elections, then TMC has nothing to show in this by-poll. However, any eventuality may drive the voters to turn to non-ruling parties (INC & BJP).
When voters wish to divert attention from the incumbent parties, the fate of TMC candidate will boost. When either the BJP or the Congress wins in this by-election, it is truly the incumbency factor. But if another party like TMC wins, it is the anti-incumbency factor that influences the voters.
Everything depends 'on what agenda the BJP and Congress will fight the by-election'. Manipur has serious issues which are to be resolved with political commitments of the Congress in the state and the BJP at the Centre. Both the parties need to show-off their political skills during the short campaign period available for the October 17 polls. The result will have significance on the 2017 Assembly Elections too.
* Seram Neken wrote this article for Hueiyen Lanpao as part of 'The Voiceless Speaks'
This article was posted on October 03, 2014.
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