Demographic theory on the components of population change

Macnelly Chongloi *

A very crowded scene at Ema Keithel, Imphal in November 2013 : Pix - Deepak Oinam

Introducing the theory: This very topic is based on the dissection of the "Demographic transition theory" and its application or attribution to the components of population change and its view over time. The demographic transition theory in its original form was given by W.S Thompson in 1929 and later by Frank W.Notestein in 1945 who based their statements on the trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The term "fertility" refers to the occurrence of live-birth among a defined population .

The term "mortality" is used to describe the occurrence of deaths among a defined population . Unlike fertility the case of mortality being inevitable and involuntary, the way of skipping the doom is to provide appropriate medical facilities. As a results , most nations have been developing and tremendous emphasis were given to the medical facilities that had decline mortality rate to some extend in the present country. In short, low mortality rate escalate the high density of population or explosion as being more life under security.

Migration , the third components of population change take place mainly for a better balance between population and resource. The term "migration" may be defined as a movement of population involving a change of permanent residence of considerable duration. An enormous diversity of types of migration in respect of cause, distance, duration, volume, direction and organization is found but the present world draw a simple distinction between international migration and internal migration; where the latter involving no crossing of international boundaries. Migration is also a major factor for population transition in the form of immigrant and emigrant.

Internal migration produces changes in distribution whereas international movements cause changes in both total numbers and distribution. As a result, we can't ignore this with fertility and mortality in the demographic analysis. From the theory, man is able to foresee demographic catastrophe before it arrives and is able to take adaptive actions long before the nature forces take place. It means man is flexible and adaptable creature which is capable of degrading his fertility when the mortality decline; yields faster population growth than the supporting capacity of the environment.

The three very clearly stated hypothesis involved in the process are :-
i) that declines in mortality comes before the decline in fertility ,
ii) that the fertility eventually declines to match mortality, and
iii) the socio-economic transformation of the society take place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.

The original statements of Thompson and Notestein on the transition were subsequently refined and formulated with the passage of time. Broadly speaking, the theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from a high fertility and high mortality. The theory provide a three major staged mo0del which may be briefly stated as follows:-
(a)high stationary stage with high fertility and high mortality providing very little natural growth,
(b)expanding stage with high fertility and decline in mortality providing explosive population increments and
(c) low stationary stage with fertility and mortality leveling out each other at low level to re-establish a fairly stationary population and thus, completing the cycle.

Dissection of the theory : Coming to the 1st statement of the hypothesis that mortality declines before the decline in the fertility. This was the general concepts implies in it. In view of the above statement some situation may be reveal. In the initial stage of human existence or in a certain region, there posses a high fertility i.e, huge born and unborn child and high mortality (high death rate of born child or irrespective of ages). With the advancement of medical facilities or preventive measure for natural hazards or well-equipped security (defensive method) gradually the death of humankind degraded.

As a result, population increase tremendously with strive for resource to survive is that matter. Soon an instinct to degrade the growing rate strikes the human mind. As a result, many medical or social remedies were enhancing to curb the situation. In a situation like this, the hypothesis was a jig-saw fit and true in the sense in most of the present time and space. Contrary to the hypothesis and situation given above, there may occurred a state where decline in fertility comes before decline in mortality in a state where high fertility and high mortality was the main demographic model initially.

It is in reverse to the going trend, if suddenly there occurred an epidemic where all the born and unborn child were aborted from existence or being growth up. Here the fertility decline but the mortality still remain high .

In a case like this the theory was totally water splashing over the stone. This is one negation of the hypothesis of the demographic transition theory of the 1st statement.

While on the 2nd statement of the hypothesis that fertility eventually declines to match mortality. Specifically, it means the no. of child born would be approximately equal to the no. of deaths. The theory states that the fertility and mortality rate should formed an inverse relationship. In some countries due to the medical facilities and its advancement, the death rate is very low but still fertility rate is high. It indicates the escalation of population growth gradually. The need for sustainable management is at hand.

So, again with the help of medical facilities or social restriction, the society further strives to degrade the fertility rate. Suppose in China; due to restriction by the Govt.(policies) not to have more than a child or two at the most under certain norms, some families who were intended of having more than this were shifted to a far-flung areas where Govt. or administrative authority were in-effective. As we all know its policy and paradigm, China lacks fertility where its fertility is not matching the mortality rate. Fertility rate is far less than its mortality rate which may be stated as a direct variation rather than indirect variation. But fleeing to the remote areas in China can increase the fertility rate if it's done in some extend.

Contrary, China being an active and strong developing nation, it is hard to escalate even this transition as being carried out by a few secretly. Such would be the situation where the hypothesis opts for. But in reversion to this, there are other phenomenons in the present context of the world. In Switzerland; due to less population of working class, some of the pensioners were intended to work on their place back. Awe-some mothers having many children were given assistance and awards.

Besides honoring, their children were also sponsored by the Govt. All this is an indication of low fertility rates where the mortality and fertility rates are almost in a direct variation relationship. Similarly in China, the younger generation is extensively lesser in population than the adult generation as it adopts the hardest method of declining fertility in the world i.e, one child or two. Naturally, it is going to affect their economy in the future for having less proletariats or working class. China is predicted to overcome all other in its economy by 2025. If the child policies go on the present trend then it would not sustain for long even if it emerge as the highest economy or super-power. A strong economy or super power too need a population with certain greatness for defensive purpose, investment, medical, research and other field in order to keep in pace with the trend in the emerging world of development and advancement.

Lacking any of them may lead to their downfall or subsidence in any of the strategic-potentiality as the present world's need an all round development at a time and going in trend to be sustain or emerge as the world's greatest economy or power. Such is also the situation found in the present context where mortality rate and fertility are not matching which would degrade their economy in the future. All the examples given above are the negation of the theory of the statement no two.

Last but not the least; the hypothesis was that socio-economic transformation of the society takes place simultaneously with its demographic transition. Unlike the previous two statements, this one is liberal and includes both the positive and negative view of the statement.

So as to say, it is absolute in any of the case! In case, if people shift permanently from a place, subsequently his socio-economic would change considerably in a better or worse way. If a man got transited from a place for better facilities, naturally his socio-economic change in a better or positive manner.

But if a man got transited to another place as a result of push factor such as war, ethnic clashes, etc then probably their socio-economic change in a worse or negative manner. Similarly, another case may be mentioned here that if a man lives in a 10 km away from his office and then shifted to a nearby of the office; what changes here? The question is what transformation take place in shifting his home!

There is no change in the number of family and even no change in the rent-fare but even then changes is in his social mind (psychological factor) and economic condition as he doesn't spend anymore for traveling daily and new environment adaptation is there. Further in the case, if he shifted again in the nearby rented home with same distance from the office with same designed or equipment and same rent fare; there is a social or mindset change with no change in economic factor as he may leave the previous for some psychological factor.

Even if the two houses were built in the same manner and direction but there would be a change in his psychological factor as the position of the house differ. Thereby, as far as I analyzed the last statement, I don't find any negation as I found it more liberal than the previous two. And it is applicable in any space and time of the world.

Conclusion: Changes in population distribution and composition are the result of the change of the three components of population change; births, deaths and migration. Birth rates which are influenced by a wide variety of social and economic factors generally exceed mortality and migration rates and fertility is therefore the main determinant of population change. Universal decline in mortality rates has contributed very largely to the rapid twentieth-century growth of world population. The demographic model is accurate in some regions but not on all the regions. The model produces different stages in course of time and spaces with the change in any components of population change.

The 1st two statement of the hypothesis had produced negation as compare to its 3rd statement which is liberal and no negation found at all. As discussed above the 1st two statement of the hypothesis is suitable in some regions and unsuitable in some, so it is just a quantitative theory or laws. Quantitative laws are not universal law rather they are laws under considerations where hypothesis is produced only after the analysis or data collection in particular area. Thus the laws varies according to the vary in the region But unlike the 1st two statement, the 3rd statement is found to be more accurate and liberal irrespective of time and space. In the sense, it may be inscribed as a universal law. So as to say; with the elimination of the 1st two statement , the 3rd statement be produced as a universal law after certain modification, speculation and in a nomothetic paradigm.

Pattern of transition and migration, including their causes and effect have long paid attention to the geographers and many attempts were made to produce a theoretical framework to aid the understanding of the process involved. Many more similar hypothesis and works need to be understood to find a soluble way in curbing any situation and also to analyze whether the theory being a quantitative or universal one is also an important task to put forward.

The main postulation of the theory where man is adaptable and can degrade the fertility rate before the nature forces act upon is not an overall agreement irrespective of time and spaces. Many phenomena as mentioned above were striving actions against the degrading policy for fertility. As man possess different conscience and psychological wish, the degrading of fertility varies from one man to the other. Hence, the theory provokes an un-generalization statement for all.