Countervailing Growth

By Geoffery *

Twelve serial blasts in Assam on 30 Oct 08 was another blow to growth trajectory of India. Current growth rate (9%) has already been affected by the ongoing financial tsunami. Financial pundits have predicted that current growth rate may not be sustained but it may not be affected very badly.

But how much is any one's guess? Experts ascribe perceived strength to finer checks and balances of Indian economy. But what about terror that is shadowing the nation's progress like an evil does the good.

India's present growth rate was put on blocks in early nineties when protectionist policies made place for policies of economic liberalization. Now is the time when nation has caught up speed in economic growth that hardly crossed the mark of 3% before nineties?

This speed has given status and power to the nation. The same can be gauged, the way India is viewed by developed nations now vis a vis pre nineties. It is a proud moment the way other nations are having a re-look at their foreign policies towards India.

Recent Indo –US nuclear deal is a testimony of paradigm shift in the thinking of developed nations. This gives an added impetus to the image, power and status of our nation. Other economies have feeling of confidence and reliance on our capabilities.

Albeit there are certain forces who want to countervail this growing power. Probably an asymmetric war is played against the country by those who are either not able to keep pace or others through covert sponsoring. This is done in the form of terror acts to condition the psyche of people at large.

This has an effect on our people as well as on those having interest in our country. Going through the chronology of terror acts one concludes that during the gestation period of growth (i.e. decade of nineties) these acts were also few and far between. But as the runner picked up speed in the new millennium countervailing forces have also gained momentum.

2008 has been worst till date. In 2001 it was attack on parliament (the power centre). In 2003 the target was financial capital (Mumbai). 2005 was aimed at hitting the psyche before the most celebrated festival (Diwali) of India i.e. a blast in crowded Sarojini Nagar Market of Delhi.

In 2006 it was Varanasi and Mumbai (again). In 2007 it was Panipat and Hyderabad (twice). 2008 is the culmination with number of serial blasts in places that matter to country's progress i.e. Jaipur, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Surat, Delhi (twice) and now the sensitive Assam. The latest blasts are more to be seen as threat to much talked about Look East Policy (LeP) aimed at projecting the best of North East Region (NER).

Quantitatively figures of those killed (approx 600) in new millennium due to terror are negligible as compared to population of more than 100 crores. Qualitatively and measuring by the factors responsible for power i.e. condignment, compensation and conditioning the effect is enormous.

Condignment or punishment to a big country like ours is both big and small. Big in the sense that any small organization can raise its head and say," catch us if you can". It is also conditioning the minds of people against efficacy of law and order in the State. It is also driving wedge in the diversities of the country.

Small in the sense there are lot of intrinsic contradictions in our democratic set up. It affects own countrymen, it affects those evincing interest in our country. It affects the foreign investors. It affects the tourism industry etc. Question is: is it an asymmetric combat against a progressive economy by those who are lagging behind?

Is it an asymmetric combat by developed economies that see developing ones as threat? Is our internal contradiction taking the toll?

Probably answer lies in mix of all the above. Abetment, encouragement and sponsoring of insurgencies in J&K and NER and other parts of our country by ISI, DGFI and other foreign agencies are an established fact. Out of 29 states in India almost 19 states are affected by violence (12 states in Northern, Central and Southern India plus 7 states of North East India).

The aim is to weaken the nation both on material and psychological plane. Internal contradictions of divisive polity in the country can not be ignored. The symbiosis of polity, bureaucracy and under ground (UG) elements needs no telling.

The symbiosis of UG in Border States and foreign elements is well documented. Planting of bombs during recent blasts in Assam are perceived to have been done by ULFA at the behest of agencies across border. There is a need to change nation's response from plain rhetoric, fault finding and reactive to decisively measured proactive response.

Our democracy needs to learn a lesson from recent hotly ever contested Presidential elections in US. Republican candidate Mc Cain not only accepted his defeat gracefully but promised to extend all the help to Obama in governance unlike our democracy where a defeated party leaves no stone unturned to pull down the ruling govt.

"Power has two aspects...It is a social necessity...It is also a social menace."
'De Jouvenel'