Contextualising LEP (Look East Policy) 4.0

Prof E. Bijoykumar Singh *

ASEAN-INDIA Car Rally 2012 passing through Moreh Area, Manipur :: 15 December, 2012 :: Pix - Deepak Oinam

Predicting the future has always been a popular pastime for economists of all hues. It is already a multi million dollar business in the west. It is all the more challenging when our neighbourhood is changing fast . Theories  are falling apart as explanatory tools and new edifices are coming up as constituents of 'the theory'.

I am beginning to wonder how a single edifice can promise so much of possibilities. Yes, I am referring to governance  and the changes that are coming in the last few months. It has generated the same amount of enthusiasm as the AAP experiment in Delhi. It had, in its thirty days, had made us aware of the space in a democracy. Similarly the NDA has ushered in a sweeping change  in policy landscape .

Government  has asserted its existence in a very positive manner. It has set in a chain reaction and many things  about which we have been cynical throughout are turning out to be feasible. The configuration is such that if we donot avail this opportunity of reinventing ourselves we will be failing in our duty to the future generations of the region.

 Why should we try to sabotage this ?we no longer have the luxury of the choice of the colour of the cat to catch the mice.  Nor is there a need to be dictated by the past when change is happening so fast .The issue that I am trying to raise is the need for reinterpreting and reinventing India's Look east policy. The issue is how to  contextualiseLEP 4.0 in the new scenario.

It is not for the first time that India has looked eastwards .It is the fourth time India is looking east and each time the compulsions had been different. India's north east found a dominant place in the scheme of things in the revised version of LEP 4.0. The revision was necessitated by the sweeping changes in Myanmar and re emergence of Asia. The twenty first century belongs to Asia.

The transition of Myanmar from an international outcaste to an international favourite at breakneck speed  and the growing clout of China in our neighbourhood have compelled us to redesign the LEP 4.0 by giving a proper place to Myanmar and the NER of India. Latching on the NER in LEP 4.0  also fitted well because that took us again in another round of search for a new paradigm for development.

The NER ,in its search for a new development paradigm, has taken the policy in its stride. LEP 4.0  is indeed not as concrete as an industrial policy and when we try to ignore it for this lack of concreteness, we are missing the wood for the trees. Economics is indeed important in LEP 4.0 but there are also other issues like that of identity and self realisation. This feeling overwhelmed me when I visited Singapore.

Capital, technology and labour are no doubt important inputs . However the same combination of factors of production can give a very different production frontier when a factor called self confidence enters.

Self confidence enters when we realise the constellation of forces around us. Though we have talked passionately about LEP 4.0, when it comes to what we call brass tacks , we fumble . we have neither the fund nor the expertise to tackle the challenge of connectivity in the region. That used to make us feel that it was another tactics for wasting time.

 Today Intellectuals in this region have to provide answers to many questions and every section of the society has become impatient. We no longer have the luxury of taking them in a wild chase for development.

The  recent geopolitical changes have opened up immense possibilities. China is looking for a sea outlet for its Yunnan province and has been very actively pursuing the idea of BCIM economic corridor spanning over Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar. The east Asian countries including Japan are exploring investment opportunities in the region with the idea of trans Asian highways and railways.

The NER has a prominent place in both schemes. Most of the east Asian countries, in their struggle for development, had defied the theory of comparative advantage . They are reaping the fruits of that defiance.

Why can't we replicate it ?We need to change the mind set. In my opinion the biggest contribution of LEP 4.0  will be in changing our mindsets. It will make easier  redefining our economic policy which has to start with a very comprehensive and holistic look at our cost benefit exercises. When an industry is started with imported raw materials, the cost rises ,no doubt, but it also gives employment to the people .

Among the major challenges confronting this region, the sense of alienation from the society due to unemployment is very important. If we tackle head on this major cause of alienation, mainstreaming will be easier. The establishment of such industries , through their backward and forward linkages, will initiate a sustained multiplier process. Even locating an industry has many ramifications. We should remember what RIMS  and Manipur university have done to Lamphel and Canchipur respectively.

The 'kombireis of Lamphel' have given way to the exploding health facilities, the fragrance of 'leihaos of Canchipur' to the fragrance of youth. Are we going to lament it ?

Is not life all about change ? We should never ask a sick man what he is capable of doing.

Our priority will be to make him stand on his feet and then comes the question of capability. We shouldnot paralyse ourselves by asking what the NER can export to the South east Asian markets. Though it is an important question, we should learn to locate it in a broader context.

Economics will occupy the backstage  for the time being when we think of the possibilities. It is no longer 'Look East' .It is 'Act East'.Sometimes optimism unravels the opportunities much better than pessimism.

 The confidence that We should be prepared to pay the price  and nothing is free.