Conference on Political Transition in India's Neighbourhood - Afghanistan and Myanmar
Date : 11 April, 2014 at Zakir Husain Delhi College
Conference
on
Political Transition in India’s Neighbourhood
AFGHANISTAN AND MYANMAR
11th April, 2014
ZAKIR HUSAIN DELHI COLLEGE
(University of Delhi)
Jawaharlal Nehru Marg, New Delhi-110002 Ph: 011- 23232218, 23233420, Fax 23215906
Concept Note
Today the region in India’s neighbourhood stands at the crossroads of history. Political
uncertainties, growing internal and regional insecurities, weakening social fabrics, economic
hardships despite the mirage of growth and systemic human rights violations define the
political climate of the south Asian region. India’s neighbourhood particularly Afghanistan and
Myanmar, on the west and east respectively, are undergoing a rapid political transition
embrowned with a number of possibilities. Political transition in both the countries affects not
only the life of the people of the two countries but also has tremendous bearings on peace,
security, stability and development of the entire region. However, the nature of the political
turmoil, historical background, geopolitical imperatives and undergoing transition in the two
countries and their implications for the region and India in particular are very much different.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s predicament is the result of a mix of legacy of cold war, the US-Pakistan
post cold war lopsided policies, post 9/11 US militarism, Obama’s half hearted approach
towards Afghanistan’s reconstruction, lack of clarity in his Pakistan’s policy and Afghans’
collective inability to reach a comprehensive political reconciliation. Afghanistan challenge is
the challenge of post-conflict nation and state building in a country still rooted in tribalism and
absence of a viable economy. Taliban’s extremism, opium cultivation, warlordism, resistance to
the authority of centralised state, dependence on foreign donors’ money and Pakistan’s elusive
search for strategic depth against India are the stumbling blocks on the path of stabilization in
Afghanistan.
Twelve years of US involvement, international assistance and a constitutional elected
government have not been able to make the writ of Afghanistan’s central authority reach
beyond Kabul. Taliban never surrendered and the Bonn process in December 2001 made no
efforts to accommodate the Taliban in Afghanistan’s power sharing arrangement. Ongoing
efforts for political reconciliation with Taliban have not yet shown any sign of a settlement.
There are allegations of rampant corruption under Karzai government and his uneasy relations
with the US have delayed the signing of the Afghanistan-US Bilateral Security Agreement
despite its approval by the National Loya Jirgah.
There are mixed signals of whether Afghanistan will be able to maintain peace and
stability and prevent the reemergence of Taliban from forcibly capturing state power or
preventing a civil war reminiscent of the days of post -Soviet withdrawal in 1989. Taliban has
been no doubt weakened but it remains a serious contender for power. The conduct of
elections to Presidency and Parliament is a challenge which hopefully will be carried out and
new government may sign the Bilateral Security Agreement. The US and international
assistance in non-combative role and financial assistance will be required for a long time to
come. Lots of stakes of the international community and India are involved in peace, stability
and prosperity in Afghanistan and maintenance of its independence and sovereignty.
Myanmar
The new democratic regime in Myanmar is now taking its baby steps and embarking on
a new era of democratic reforms on the path of ‘disciplined democracy’. At this stage, it has to
face a number of teething troubles and has a long way to go from infancy to adolescence. As it
moves forward in its growth and maturity, we hope these problems can be overpowered with
the emergence of a more open and mature democracy. The newly established national and
regional parliaments are the centerpiece of the country’s reform process. Still, the new
Constitution greatly inhibits the creation of a genuine civilian government in Myanmar. One
reason is the reservation of 25% of all seats in the national Parliament for military personnel. It
also assigns key ministerial portfolios such as Defense and Home Affairs exclusively to military
representatives. The other controversial clause relates to article 59(f) which prohibits any
citizens whose parents, spouse or children owe any allegiance to a foreign power. Likewise, the
Constitution grants extraordinary powers to an unelected “Commander in Chief of the Defense
Services,” who during a self-declared state of emergency may assume all legislative, executive,
and judicial authority. Finally, constitutional amendments require the approval of over 75 per
cent of parliamentary members, effectively giving the military a veto over constitutional
change. Moreover, ethnic nationalities have also been demanding a federal constitution,
granting them greater autonomy.
Although, the change is coming slowly to the isolated country, but still, it has a long way
to go. With the elections being held on Nov 7, 2010 and release of Aung San Suu Kyi on
November 13, 2010 there is a ray of hope for democracy and change in Myanmar. The entry of
Suu Kyi and her party to the parliament has been a means of legitimizing newly established
civilian regime's mandate to govern and enhance its own reform credentials. The regime needs
Suu Kyi in the parliament to bolster the authority of its own political system and spur on easing
Western sanctions. However, Suu Kyi needs the military perhaps more than anyone else if she is
to advance politically and amend the constitution, given a quarter of seats are reserved for the
military. The reform process, however, in Myanmar is scared by the reformists and hardliners in
the army. The hardliners have become more concerned after the last bye-elections when
military backed USDP could just get one out of the 45 seats. Nevertheless, resolving the ethnic
issue will be Myanmar’s biggest challenge now. Overcoming of sixty year old ethnic conflict will
not be easy and the government will have to do a great deal to build the trust necessary to
move beyond temporary ceasefires to resolve the underlying political issues. These
developments, therefore, have a significant implication for the dynamics of power struggle and
future road map to the presidency in Myanmar in the 2015 elections.
Given this background, the Conference intends to deliberate upon theme of political
transition especially in the context of Afghanistan and Myanmar—India’s two strategic
neighbours. The dilemmas of political transition in Afghanistan and the nature of
democratization in Myanmar are issues which require critical interventions. In this perspective,
the Conference would discuss the issue of state building in the context of post conflict society
of Afghanistan and national reconciliation process in Myanmar.
(Convenors)
Dr. Uma Shankar (Email: [email protected] )
Dr. Sonu Trivedi (Email: [email protected])
Department of Political Science
Zakir Husain Delhi College
University of Delhi
* This information is sent by M Kim who can be contacted at kimbo119(at)gmail(dot)com
This Post is webcasted on April 08, 2014
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